Showing papers in "Foresight in 2001"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use the example of a transition to a low emission energy supply in the Netherlands to argue that transition management provides a basis for coherence and consistency in public policy and can be the spur to sustainable development.
Abstract: Transitions are transformation processes in which society changes in a fundamental way over a generation or more. Although the goals of a transition are ultimately chosen by society, governments can play a role in bringing about structural change in a stepwise manner. Their management involves sensitivity to existing dynamics and regular adjustment of goals to overcome the conflict between long‐term ambition and short‐term concerns. This article uses the example of a transition to a low emission energy supply in the Netherlands to argue that transition management provides a basis for coherence and consistency in public policy and can be the spur to sustainable development.
1,913 citations
TL;DR: An analytical tool (cross‐level analysis) is presented for examining views of the world in terms of both the perceptual filters of the viewer and the aspect of theworld being viewed, a technique which is also useful for analysing how other scanners do their scanning.
Abstract: The basis for a broadened scanning framework is described, which may also function as a means for understanding how human minds filter their perceptions of the world. The framework is based on the Four‐Quadrant Integral model of Ken Wilber and the Spiral Dynamics model of Don Beck and Chris Cowan. An analytical tool (cross‐level analysis) is presented for examining views of the world in terms of both the perceptual filters of the viewer and the aspect of the world being viewed, a technique which is also useful for analysing how other scanners do their scanning. A notation for cross‐level analysis is presented and described, with examples of its use.
82 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors use a version of Wilber's four-quadrant model as one way of understanding the knowledge creation process in futures studies, and apply this structurally to knowledge creation through four contrasting futures methodologies.
Abstract: For futures studies to progress toward a fully‐fledged discipline its knowledge creation processes must be clear and comprehensible. They must be capable of being taught, learned, critiqued and modified. This paper provides a rationale for using a version of Wilber’s four‐quadrant model as one way of understanding the knowledge creation process in futures studies. It applies this structurally to knowledge creation through four contrasting futures methodologies. The latter are then recontextualized within the four‐quadrant framework. It is suggested that a rapprochement between futures studies and an emerging “integral agenda” provides a sound approach to the civilizational challenge facing humankind.
36 citations
TL;DR: A key role for futurists is therefore to inspire decision makers with alternative futures and choices, demonstrating their technical feasibility, and warning of the consequences of inaction as discussed by the authors. But behind every corporate decision there is a battle for hearts and minds, and they have rules of their own.
Abstract: At its best, futures research can change priorities and attitudes within organizations, and bring fresh meaning to the present. But its recommendations are not always politically convenient, and a much‐heralded report can be just as discreetly shelved. A key role for futurists is therefore to inspire decision‐makers with alternative futures and choices, demonstrating their technical feasibility, and warning of the consequences of inaction. But behind every corporate decision there is a battle for hearts and minds – and they have rules of their own.
22 citations
TL;DR: Trends and issues in creating a Virtual Learning Community in systems engineering, drawing upon the results of an European ALFA‐funded project named COSME are described.
Abstract: It is no coincidence that the universities were pioneers of the internet, for the medium lends itself uniquely well to academic debate and collaboration. We call this process of sharing ideas in cyberspace “virtual learning”, and the main goal of any such community is to create a shared understanding that will inspire research and development. This paper describes trends and issues in creating a Virtual Learning Community in systems engineering, drawing upon the results of an European ALFA‐funded project named COSME.
15 citations
Abstract: This article examines the future of e‐money as a payment instrument and some of the microeconomic policy issues it will raise. The paper is in two parts. This first part focuses on the various forms which electronic money is likely to take in the future, and considers key technological and economic factors that will shape its evolution. Part 2, to be published in the next issue of foresight, examines some of the major regulatory and institutional issues that are likely to have a bearing on the adoption of e‐money, notably concerns related to the regulation of payment systems, security, privacy and consumer protection.
11 citations
TL;DR: The information society is an engine of growth, but it must be kept on track if it is to serve wider social and environmental goals as discussed by the authors, while ICTs can foster resource efficiency they may also feed environmentally damaging consumption.
Abstract: The information society is an engine of growth, but it must be kept on track if it is to serve wider social and environmental goals. While ICTs can foster resource efficiency they may also feed environmentally damaging consumption – paradoxically, the information society could be less sustainable than the industrial society. At the same time, the digital economy’s 24‐hour treadmill is increasing the pressure on individuals, families and societies. To achieve environmental and social equilibrium, should we simply adapt to the demands of the information society, or do we need to rethink our economic and social priorities?
10 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a major foresight and scenario planning exercise concerned with the future of real estate, and verify the use of foresight through scenario planning as a credible method of fostering a learning culture within the property professions and helping in the future proofing of current decision making.
Abstract: This paper reports the progress of, and results from, a major foresight and scenario planning exercise concerned with the future of real estate. The project first explored the general climate of change within which real estate decisions will have to be made. It then identified specific real estate opportunities and tested alternative strategies which might emerge as a result of that change. A further objective was to verify the use of foresight through scenario planning as a credible method of fostering a learning culture within the property professions and helping in the future proofing of current decision making.
9 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the role of the university in an era of globalization and e-commerce is discussed, and a new joint venture is announced by traditional or new players, as they jockey for position in this increasingly global market.
Abstract: The education market is worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and every week sees a new joint venture announced by traditional or new players, as they jockey for position in this increasingly global market. But what should the role of the University be in an era of globalization and e‐commerce?
9 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a framework is proposed to analyse the first two of these three linkages, together with the results of a questionnaire survey, pointing to a continuous growth trend in Japanese ICT investment with sectoral variations, and statistically significant evidence of ICTs contributions to corporate operations and environmental issues.
Abstract: There are manifold causal linkages between information and communications technologies (ICTs) and social sustainability. In this article, these linkages are classified into three areas: direct improvement of corporate productivity, changed behaviour of people/organizations, and improved decision‐making capabilities within society. A framework is proposed to analyse the first two of these three linkages, together with the results of a questionnaire survey. These point to a continuous growth trend in Japanese ICT investment with sectoral variations, and statistically significant evidence of ICTs’ contributions to corporate operations and environmental issues.
8 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the procedures used and results of a multi-economy foresight study of sustainable transport in megacities of the Asia-Pacific region and identify key issues and policy actions needed.
Abstract: Increasing urbanization in the Asia and Pacific region is leading to a rapid increase in the number of megacities. A major concern is the issue of sustainable transport. This article describes the procedures used and results of a multi‐economy foresight study of sustainable transport in megacities of the Asia‐Pacific region. Key issues and policy actions needed are identified.
TL;DR: With rising public concern over animal welfare, food safety and GM crops, Europe's farmers, breeders, and food processors are caught in the eye of a storm as mentioned in this paper, while some are returning to the soil with traditional organic methods, others are breeding crops and animals using biotechnology, for markets as diverse as power generation and pharmaceuticals.
Abstract: With rising public concern over animal welfare, food safety and GM crops, Europe’s farmers, breeders and food processors are caught in the eye of a storm. While some are “returning to the soil” with traditional organic methods, others are breeding crops and animals using biotechnology, for markets as diverse as power generation and pharmaceuticals. For Europe’s policymakers social and ecological sustainability are paramount, but public information is also a prerequisite for meaningful debate.
TL;DR: The next generation of leaders will emerge not from the political class but from ordinary communities, bringing with them new modes of learning and new definitions of intelligence as discussed by the authors, and with it a devolution of power to the grassroots.
Abstract: Global government is on the rise, and with it a devolution of power to the grassroots. Subjugating nature is out of fashion and ecological living is the new imperative. The next generation of leaders will emerge not from the political class but from ordinary communities, bringing with them new modes of learning and new definitions of intelligence.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose to redesign government communications from the ground up, in ways that engage citizens and encourage e-commerce, in order to win over Web users from other communications channels.
Abstract: If governments are really to stimulate the information society, they must lead from the front. That means redesigning government communications from the ground up, in ways that engage citizens and encourage e‐commerce. Local portals could pave the way, but first they must win over Web users from other communications channels. That means attracting the best content – and one way for governments to do that is to set a standard in pricing and marketing their own data.
TL;DR: In this article, a study of the IT sector in Thailand, a tightly-knit industry and the active participation of its trade association ensured maximum consultation and the most collective of visions.
Abstract: Technology foresight is becoming an important instrument in the policy‐making process in many countries. But unless foresight studies engage the full spectrum of users and industry sectors, they may never see implementation. In one study of the IT sector in Thailand, a tightly‐knit industry and the active participation of its trade association ensured maximum consultation and the most collective of visions. With a steering committee now monitoring implementation targets to 2010, what the Thai IT industry lacks in size it is making up for in resolution.
TL;DR: It is argued that only new interdisciplinary research networks will enable Europe to harness the power of nanotechnology – or prepare its citizens for the benefits.
Abstract: Nanotechnology promises to be the defining science of the 21st century. With its integration of the organic and inorganic worlds, it represents more than simply a continuation of the principles of microtechnology. Because of this it requires new structures of R&D management, and new communication processes. A number of recent foresight studies identify potential future applications for European industry and point to the strengths and weaknesses of Member States. But only new interdisciplinary research networks will enable Europe to harness the power of nanotechnology – or prepare its citizens for the benefits.
TL;DR: The EC‐funded Alliance for a Sustainable Information Society (ASIS) was set up to investigate the potential synergy between Information Society Technologies and sustainable development, but warns of the potential “rebound effects” of IST in terms of the environment.
Abstract: The EC‐funded Alliance for a Sustainable Information Society (ASIS) was set up to investigate the potential synergy between Information Society Technologies (IST) and sustainable development. While applauding universal access to knowledge and understanding, ASIS warns of the potential “rebound effects” of IST in terms of the environment. Can underlying patterns of lifestyles and behaviour, particularly related to consumption, be reformed? Can IST satisfy our needs at a less material level? Scenario modelling offers some tantalising clues, but points consistently to the need to build a new framework for global consensus.
TL;DR: The concept of tradable emissions rights from governments to individual citizens has been proposed in this article, where the authors argue that while the information society can offer environmentally friendly lifestyles such as teleworking, it is also bringing a much larger proportion of the world population into the consumer economy, so as developing countries join the West in its polluting ways, how can we safeguard the principle of sustainability?
Abstract: We have a joint responsibility around the world to act together to achieve sustainable global development. But while the information society can offer environmentally friendly lifestyles such as teleworking, it is also bringing a much larger proportion of the world population into the consumer economy. So as developing countries join the West in its polluting ways, how can we safeguard the principle of sustainability? The answers may lie in making more efficient use of existing resources, extending the concept of tradable emissions rights from governments to individual citizens, and extolling the virtues of “intergenerational solidarity”.
TL;DR: In the absence of clear evidence about the long-term effects of genetic manipulation, how can we design a consultation process that addresses public concerns? as mentioned in this paper The potential of biotechnology to cure disease and feed the Third World has not eased public disquiet about its safety In the rush to commercialization, can lessons be learnt from the introduction of nuclear power a generation ago?
Abstract: The potential of biotechnology to cure disease and feed the Third World has not eased public disquiet about its safety In the rush to commercialization, can lessons be learnt from the introduction of nuclear power a generation ago? While France’s nuclear programme stayed on track, America’s was derailed by accidents and corporate secrecy So is an industry under state control safer than one in private hands? And in the absence of clear evidence about the long‐term effects of genetic manipulation, how can we design a consultation process that addresses public concerns?
TL;DR: In this article, the second part of a two-part paper on the future of electronic payments is presented, focusing on major regulatory and institutional issues that will influence the wider acceptance of electronic payment.
Abstract: This is the second part of a two‐part paper on the future of electronic payments. Part 1, which was published in the last issue of this journal, examined the various electronic forms of payment that are likely to emerge in the future, and considered some of the main technological and economic factors that will shape this evolution. This second part focuses on major regulatory and institutional issues that will influence the wider acceptance of electronic payment.
TL;DR: In this article, the social and economic promise of e-commerce will not be fulfilled without safeguarding consumer rights, particularly in the area of data protection, and will such restrictions put a brake on market development? Or are they the only way to inspire consumer confidence and thus forge a sustainable information society?
Abstract: Europe’s politicians want to see e‐commerce thrive – not least because it is a market where Europe lags behind the USA. The social and economic promise of e‐commerce will not be fulfilled without safeguarding consumer rights, particularly in the area of data protection. But will such restrictions put a brake on market development? Or are they the only way to inspire consumer confidence, and thus forge a sustainable information society?
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identified six main areas where manufacturing must develop and excel: concurrency, integrating human and technological resources, the conversion of information to knowledge, environmental compatibility, developing reconfigurable enterprises and innovative processes.
Abstract: Manufactured artefacts will always be needed to satisfy human needs, but the business of manufacturing faces a range of challenges in the emerging knowledge economy. Six main areas are identified where manufacturing must develop and excel: concurrency, integrating human and technological resources, the conversion of information to knowledge, environmental compatibility, developing reconfigurable enterprises and innovative processes. There are many emerging technologies which can assist, but if Europe is to remain a force in manufacturing it needs to take positive action to enhance its strengths and alleviate its weaknesses – and nowhere more so than in the field of research.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce five main areas where science and technology will be required to deliver tangible gains for society and the economy in the coming years, including access and sustainability, and humanizing the interface between technology and people.
Abstract: A review of recent foresight exercises reveals some important drivers of research in Europe. In this editorial, we introduce five main areas where science and technology will be required to deliver tangible gains for society and the economy in the coming years. It is no longer enough for research agendas to be dictated by the supply of expertise from the science base. Increasingly, they must respond to social values like access and sustainability, and humanize the interface between technology and people.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors point out the need for socio-organizational or "soft" technologies to help Europe manage change and respond to major new economic opportunities, such as artificial intelligence.
Abstract: Technology has always inspired social change, but its scale and complexity have begun to bewilder even the politicians and policymakers. Several recent national foresight studies point to a need for socio‐organizational or “soft” technologies to help Europe manage change and respond to major new economic opportunities. Research is required in fields such as neuro‐linguistic programming, the psychology of knowledge management and the ergonomics of the man‐machine interface. “Electronic pets” showed that we can learn to love machines – now the challenge is to embed technology in such a way as to marry science with society.
TL;DR: In February this year the sequence of the human genome was published, opening a new chapter in medicine, where genetic testing will be at the heart of diagnosis, epidemiology, drug development and even regenerative medicine.
Abstract: In February this year the sequence of the human genome was published, opening a new chapter in medicine. Soon genetic testing will be at the heart of diagnosis, epidemiology, drug development and even regenerative medicine. Before we are born there will be new opportunities to remedy genetic defects, and afterwards to make almost lifelong prognoses. The debate will intensify on the use of human embryos in medical research, while the prospect of human cloning will fascinate some scientists and horrify others. Europe needs to be in the vanguard of this new industrial revolution, but a host of ethical concerns must first be addressed – because genomics is as much about privacy as Petri dishes.
TL;DR: A century ago, military instruments were readily deployed in imperialistic adventures or the defence of national interests as mentioned in this paper. But even if the politicians are driving the agenda, the security imperative remains the same.
Abstract: A century ago, military instruments were readily deployed in imperialistic adventures or the defence of national interests. Today the strategic environment is more complex and diplomatic protocols more established. The information revolution is meanwhile telescoping time frames and proliferating futures scenarios. But even if the politicians are driving the agenda, the security imperative remains the same. For defence planners that implies new models and mechanisms, and a closer nexus in the formulation of political and defence policy.
TL;DR: Even if they meet their energy needs in a multiplicity of ways, EU member states are united in their commitment to environmental technology as discussed by the authors and Europe is a leader in the research and development of new energy sources, as well as the refinement of existing ones.
Abstract: Even if they meet their energy needs in a multiplicity of ways, EU member states are united in their commitment to environmental technology. Europe is a leader in the research and development of new energy sources, as well as the refinement of existing ones. As energy supply becomes a global trade, Europe’s energy‐efficient technology is in tune with the new environmental consciousness. Now it is up to Europe’s politicians to support its energy industry in exporting green power where it is most urgently needed – the developing world.
TL;DR: The most environmentally unfriendly of them all is coal as mentioned in this paper, and coal is the most abundant fossil fuel in the world, and it is also the most carbon-friendly.
Abstract: Thermonuclear fusion is on the way, and beyond it the promise of limitless power derived from hydrogen in water and air. The challenge for the next few years will be to eke out our fossil fuels, and the most plentiful by far is coal. So how to reform a fuel that has long been considered the most environmentally unfriendly of them all?
TL;DR: The study concludes that healthy megacities are possible if appropriate policy actions are taken, whilst simultaneously improving the quality of life for its inhabitants.
Abstract: The Asia‐Pacific Co‐operation (APEC) region, which comprises 21 developed and developing economies, is expected to become predominantly urban by 2020 with at least 15 cities exceeding 10 million inhabitants. Whether such megacities will be “healthy” in the sense of physical, mental and social wellbeing is critical to the future of the region. A modified scenario creation technique has been used in this study of APEC megacities to 2020. Fifteen key issues have been identified and these can be grouped using the concept of cities as living organisms. A healthy megacity is one which reduces its resource inputs and waste outputs, whilst simultaneously improving the quality of life for its inhabitants. The study concludes that healthy megacities are possible if appropriate policy actions are taken.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the challenges of creating a single European defence force as the region embarks on a new phase of enlargement, and whether this represents the ultimate challenge for federalism and if so, could it kickstart cooperation in other areas of mutual protection such as food safety and the environment.
Abstract: Moves to create a single European defence force come as the region embarks on a new phase of enlargement. So does this represent the ultimate challenge for federalism? And if so, could it kick‐start cooperation in other areas of mutual protection such as food safety and the environment?