Showing papers in "Hydrology in 2016"

Soil Erosion Processes in European Vineyards: A Qualitative Comparison of Rainfall Simulation Measurements in Germany, Spain and France

Abstract: Small portable rainfall simulators are considered a useful tool to analyze soil erosion processes in cultivated lands. European research groups in Spain (Valencia, Malaga, Lleida, Madrid and La Rioja), France (Reims) and Germany (Trier) have used different rainfall simulators (varying in drop size distribution and fall velocities, kinetic energy, plot forms and sizes, and field of application) to study soil loss, surface flow, runoff and infiltration coefficients in different experimental plots (Valencia, Montes de Malaga, Penedes, Campo Real and La Rioja in Spain, Champagne in France and Mosel-Ruwer valley in Germany). The measurements and experiments developed by these research teams give an overview of the variety of methodologies used in rainfall simulations to study the problem of soil erosion and describe the erosion features in different climatic environments, management practices and soil types. The aims of this study are: (i) to investigate where, how and why researchers from different wine-growing regions applied rainfall simulations with successful results as a tool to measure soil erosion processes; (ii) to make a qualitative comparison about the general soil erosion processes in European terroirs; (iii) to demonstrate the importance of the development of standard method for measurement of soil erosion processes in vineyards, using rainfall simulators; and (iv) and to analyze the key factors that should be taken into account to carry out rainfall simulations. The rainfall simulations in all cases allowed infiltration capacity, susceptibility of the soil to detachment and generation of sediment loads to runoff to be determined. Despite using small plots, the experiments were useful to analyze the influence of soil cover to reduce soil erosion, to make comparisons between different locations, and to evaluate the influence of different soil characteristics. The comparative analysis of the studies performed in different study areas points out the need to define an operational methodology to carry out rainfall simulations, which allows us to obtain representative and comparable results and to avoid errors in the interpretation in order to achieve comparable information about runoff and soil loss.

Impacts of Rainfall Variability, Land Use and Land Cover Change on Stream Flow of the Black Volta Basin, West Africa

Abstract: Potential implications of rainfall variability along with Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC) on stream flow have been assessed in the Black Volta basin using the SWAT model. The spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over the Black Volta was assessed using the Mann-Kendall monotonic trend test and the Sen’s slope for the period 1976–2011. The statistics of the trend test showed that 61.4% of the rain gauges presented an increased precipitation trend whereas the rest of the stations showed a decreased trend. However, the test performed at the 95% confidence interval level showed that the detected trends in the rainfall data were not statistically significant. Land use trends between the year 2000 and 2013 show that within thirteen years, land use classes like bare land, urban areas, water bodies, agricultural lands, deciduous forests and evergreen forests have increased respectively by 67.06%, 33.22%, 7.62%, 29.66%, 60.18%, and 38.38%. Only grass land has decreased by 44.54% within this period. Changes in seasonal stream flow due to LULC were assessed by defining dry and wet seasons. The results showed that from year 2000 to year 2013, the dry season discharge has increased by 6% whereas the discharge of wet season has increased by 1%. The changes in stream flows components such us surface run-off (SURF_Q), lateral flow (LAT_Q) and ground water contribution to stream flow (GW_Q) and also on evapotranspiration (ET) changes due to LULC was evaluated. The results showed that between the year 2000 and 2013, SURF_Q and LAT_Q have respectively increased by 27% and 19% while GW_Q has decreased by 6% while ET has increased by 4.59%. The resultant effects are that the water yield to stream flow has increased by 4%.

Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on Urban Stormwater Infrastructures in the Las Vegas Valley

Abstract: The intensification of the hydrological cycle due to climate change entails more frequent and intense rainfall As a result, urban water systems will be disproportionately affected by the climate change, especially in such urban areas as Las Vegas, which concentrates its population, infrastructure, and economic activity Proper design and management of stormwater facilities are needed to attenuate the severe effects of extreme rainfall events The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program is developing multiple high-resolution projected-climate data from different combinations of regional climate models and global climate models The objective of this study was to evaluate existing stormwater facilities of a watershed within the Las Vegas Valley in southern Nevada by using a robust design method for the projected climate The projected climate change was incorporated into the model at the 100 year return period with 6 h duration depths, using a statistical regionalization analysis method Projection from different sets of climate model combinations varied substantially Gridded reanalysis data were used to assess the performance of the climate models An existing Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model was implemented using the projected change in standard design storm Hydrological simulation using HEC-HMS showed exceedances of existing stormwater facilities that were designed under the assumption of stationarity design depth Recognizing climate change and taking an immediate approach in assessing the city’s vulnerability by using proper strategic planning would benefit the urban sector and improve the quality of life

Flood Risk Analysis in Lower Part of Markham River Based on Multi-Criteria Decision Approach (MCDA)

Abstract: Papua New Guinea is blessed with a plethora of enviable natural resources, but at the same time it is also cursed by quite a few natural disasters like volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslide, floods, droughts etc. Floods happen to be a natural process of maintaining the health of the rivers and depth of its thalweg; it saves the river from becoming morbid while toning up the fertility of the riverine landscape. At the same time, from human perspective, all these ecological goodies are nullified when flood is construed overwhelmingly as one of the most devastating events in respect to social and economic consequences. The present investigation was tailored to assess the use of multi-criteria decision approach (MCDA) in inland flood risk analysis. Categorization of possible flood risk zones was accomplished using geospatial data sets, like elevation, slope, distance to river, and land use/land cover, which were derived from digital elevation model (DEM) and satellite image, respectively. A pilot study area was selected in the lower part of Markham River in Morobe Province, Papua New Guinea. The study area is bounded by 146°31′ to 146°58′ east and 6°33′ to 6°46′ south; covers an area of 758.30 km2. The validation of a flood hazard risk map was carried out using past flood records in the study area. This result suggests that MCDA within GIS techniques is very useful in accurate and reliable flood risk analysis and mapping. This approach is convenient for the assessment of flood in any region, specifically in no-data regions, and can be useful for researchers and planners in flood mitigation strategies.

Identification of Streamflow Changes across the Continental United States Using Variable Record Lengths

Abstract: The study focused on investigating the presence of change patterns in 600 unimpaired streamflow stations across the continental U.S. at different time intervals to understand the change patterns that can provide significant insight regarding climate variability and change. Each station had continuous streamflow data of at least 30 years (the entire dataset covered a range of 109 years). Presence of trends and shifts were detected in water year and the four seasons (fall, winter, spring, and summer) analyzing the water year and seasonal mean flows. Two non-parametric tests, namely, the Mann-Kendall test and the Pettitt’s test were used to identify the trends and the shifts, respectively. The results showed an increasing trend in the northeast and upper-mid regions, whereas southeast and northwest regions underwent a decrease. Shifts followed similar patterns as trends with higher number of stations with significant change. Fall and spring showed the highest number of stations with increasing and decreasing change, respectively, in the seasonal analyses. Results of this study may assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the continental U.S., especially at the regional scale since this study covers a long range of years with a large number of stations in each region.

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

Abstract: A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then, both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from the hydrometric station at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Nash–Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of simulated and observed precipitation data, and demonstrate improvement, although not significant, at the Hydrological response, like simulated hydrographs. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study, as well as previous studies, suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However, more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms driving hydrometeorological processes on a wider variety precipitation and terrestrial hydrologic systems.

Runoff and Soil Erosion Assessment on Forest Roads Using a Small Scale Rainfall Simulator

Abstract: Forestry operations can significantly alter hydrological and erosional processes in a catchment. In the course of developing timberland, a network of persistent roads and skid trails causing soil compaction is usually established. Hereby, the infiltration rate of the soil is distinctly reduced, which leads to the generation of overland flow—this may also cause soil erosion. In this study, a small-scale rainfall simulator is used to investigate hydrological and erosional processes on forest roads and skid trails. The results show increased runoff rates on forest roads, up to 25 times higher than on undisturbed forest topsoil. On skid trails, the runoff rates were altered especially in rutted areas (16 times higher) while unrutted parts showed a lesser change (four times higher). With sufficient overland flow, soil erosion rates also rose, particularly when the vegetation cover of the surface was removed: bare road surfaces featured higher mean erosion rates (195 g·m−2) than partly or completely vegetated skid trails (13 g·m−2) and undisturbed sites (5 g·m−2). The findings presented in this study indicate the need for the use of compaction reducing technology during forestry operations and a revegetation of road surfaces in order to minimize the detrimental factor of roads and skid trails on water retention and soil conservation.

Feasibility of High-Resolution Soil Erosion Measurements by Means of Rainfall Simulations and SfM Photogrammetry

Abstract: The silty soils of the intensively used agricultural landscape of the Saxon loess province, eastern Germany, are very prone to soil erosion, mainly caused by water erosion. Rainfall simulations, and also increasingly structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, are used as methods in soil erosion research not only to assess soil erosion by water, but also to quantify soil loss. This study aims to validate SfM photogrammetry determined soil loss estimations with rainfall simulations measurements. Rainfall simulations were performed at three agricultural sites in central Saxony. Besides the measured data runoff and soil loss by sampling (in mm), terrestrial images were taken from the plots with digital cameras before and after the rainfall simulation. Subsequently, SfM photogrammetry was used to reconstruct soil surface changes due to soil erosion in terms of high resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) for the pre- and post-event (resolution 1 × 1 mm). By multi-temporal change detection, the digital elevation model of difference (DoD) and an averaged soil loss (in mm) is received, which was compared to the soil loss by sampling. Soil loss by DoD was higher than soil loss by sampling. The method of SfM photogrammetry-determined soil loss estimations also include a comparison of three different ground control point (GCP) approaches, revealing that the most complex one delivers the most reliable soil loss by DoD. Additionally, soil bulk density changes and splash erosion beyond the plot were measured during the rainfall simulation experiments in order to separate these processes and associated surface changes from the soil loss by DoD. Furthermore, splash was negligibly small, whereas higher soil densities after the rainfall simulations indicated soil compaction. By means of calculated soil surface changes due to soil compaction, the soil loss by DoD achieved approximately the same value as the soil loss by rainfall simulation.

Variability and Trends in Precipitation, Temperature and Drought Indices in the State of California

Abstract: This study presents a comprehensive assessment of the variability and trends of the precipitation and temperature along with the trends in drought indices over the State of California. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test is applied with a trend-free pre-whitening procedure in trend identification. A dataset containing 120-year (water years 1896–2015) monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and the Palmer Index for seven climatic regions of the state is used for this purpose. The results confirm previous work indicating that no clear trends are observed in precipitation, while a distinct warming trend is evident in temperature over the state. New findings of this study include: (1) in general, the variability of annual, winter (December–February) and spring (March–May) precipitation shows an increasing tendency, implying intensified frequency of the occurrence of dry or wet extremes; (2) on the annual scale and in the summer, statewide meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought indices all have decreasing trends, indicating the more frequent occurrence of drought events; and (3) among seven regions, the South Coast Drainage region generally has the most significant warming trend, as well as the most significant declining trends in drought indices. Overall, these findings are highly meaningful from both theoretical and practical perspectives, in the context of providing critical information in developing prediction models and guiding water resources management practices, respectively.

Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

Abstract: Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD) using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland) in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west), nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams). Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

Water Balance to Recharge Calculation: Implications for Watershed Management Using Systems Dynamics Approach

Abstract: Groundwater depletion in the face of growth is a well-known problem, particularly in those areas that have grown to become dependent on a declining resource. This research comprises a broad synthesis of existing water resources data, to understand the long-term implications of continued growth in water demand on groundwater dominant water resources, and to develop a tool for sustainable water management. The Palouse region of Washington and Idaho, USA. (approximately 60,000 people in a rural setting) is entirely dependent on groundwater from two basalt aquifers for potable water. Using the systems dynamics approach and a water balance that considered the entire hydrologic cycle, a hydrologic model of these aquifers was developed, tested and applied to simulate their behavior over a 150 year time period assuming the current infrastructure does not change. With 1% population growth and current water extraction rates, the results indicated the upper aquifer use may be sustainable, while the lower aquifer use is likely unsustainable in the long term. This study also shows that uncertainties in key aspects of the system create limitations to groundwater management.

Provision of Desalinated Irrigation Water by the Desalination of Groundwater within a Saline Aquifer

Abstract: Irrigated land accounts for 70% of global water usage and 30% of global agricultural production. Forty percent of this water is derived from groundwater. Approximately 20%–30% of the groundwater sources are saline and 20%–50% of global irrigation water is salinized. Salinization reduces crop yields and the number of crop varieties which can be grown on an arable holding. Structured ZVI (zero valent iron, Fe0 pellets desalinate water by storing the removed ions as halite (NaCl) within their porosity. This allows an “Aquifer Treatment Zone” to be created within an aquifer, (penetrated by a number of wells (containing ZVI pellets)). This zone is used to supply partially desalinated water directly from a saline aquifer. A modeled reconfigured aquifer producing a continuous flow (e.g., 20 m3/day, 7300 m3/a) of partially desalinated irrigation water is used to illustrate the impact of porosity, permeability, aquifer heterogeneity, abstraction rate, Aquifer Treatment Zone size, aquifer thickness, optional reinjection, leakage and flow by-pass on the product water salinity. This desalination approach has no operating costs (other than abstraction costs (and ZVI regeneration)) and may potentially be able to deliver a continuous flow of partially desalinated water (30%–80% NaCl reduction) for $0.05–0.5/m3.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Snow Density and Its Influence on Snow Water Equivalence Estimates in a Large Mountainous Basin

Abstract: Accurate representation of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in mountainous basins is critical for furthering the understanding of snow as a water resource, especially in the Western United States. To estimate the spatial distribution and total volume of SWE over mountainous basins, previous work has either assumed uniform snow density or used simple approaches to estimate density. This study uses over 1000 direct measurements of SWE and snow depth (from which density was calculated) in sampling areas that were physiographically proportional to a large (207 km2) mountainous basin in southwest Montana. Using these data, modeled spatial distributions of density and depth were developed and combined to obtain estimates of total basin SWE. Six estimates of SWE were obtained using varying combinations of the distributed depth and density models and were compared to the average of three different models that utilized direct measurements of SWE. Models utilizing direct SWE measurements varied by approximately 1% around their mean, while SWE estimates derived from combined depth and density models varied by over 14% around the same mean. This study highlights the need to carefully consider the spatial variability of density when estimating SWE based on snow depth in these environments.

Integrated Flood Risk Assessment of Rural Communities in the Oti River Basin, West Africa

Abstract: Flood damage in West Africa has increased appreciably during the last two decades. Poor communities are more at risk due to the vulnerability of their livelihoods, especially in rural areas where access to services and infrastructures is limited. The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors that contribute to flood risk of rural communities in the Oti River Basin, Togo. A community-based disaster risk index model is applied. The analyses use primary data collected through questionnaires during fieldwork, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, population and housing census data and flood hazard mapping of the study area. The results showed a moderate level of flood risk despite a high level of hazard and vulnerability for all investigated communities. In addition, the results suggest that decreasing vulnerability through creation of new income-generating opportunities and increasing capacity of communities to manage their own flood risk should be paramount in order to reduce flood risk in the study area. The results of this work contribute to the understanding of flood risk and can be used to identify, assess, and compare flood-prone areas, as well as simulating the impacts of flood management measures in the Oti River Basin.

Exploring Perceptions and Behaviors about Drinking Water in Australia and New Zealand: Is It Risky to Drink Water, When and Why?

Abstract: Consumers in most developed countries, including Australia and New Zealand, presume their drinking water is safe. How social perceptions about drinking water are formed, however, remains inadequately explored in the research literature. This research contributes exploratory insights by examining factors that affect consumer perceptions and behaviors. Individual perceptions of drinking water quality and actions undertaken to mitigate perceived risks were collected during 183 face-to-face interviews conducted at six research sites. Qualitative thematic analysis revealed the majority did not consider drinking water a “risky” activity, trusted water management authorities to manage all safety issues and believed self-evaluation of drinking water’s taste and appearance were sufficient measures to ensure safe consumption. Quantitatively, significant relationships emerged between water quality perceptions and sex, employment status, drinking water treatment and trust in government to provide safe water. Expert advice was rarely sought, even by those who believed drinking tap water posed some health risks. Generational differences emerged in media usage for drinking water advice. Finally, precautionary measures taken at home and abroad often failed to meet national drinking water guidelines. Three major conclusions are drawn: a. broad lack of awareness exists about the most suitable and safe water treatment activities, as well as risks posed; b. health literacy and interest may be improved through greater consumer involvement in watershed management; and c. development of health campaigns that clearly communicate drinking water safety messages in a timely, relevant and easily understandable fashion may help mitigate actual risks and dispel myths.

Hydrological evaluation of TRMM rainfall over the upper Senegal River basin.

Abstract: The availability of climatic data, especially on a daily time step, has become very rare in West Africa over the last few years due to the high costs of climate data monitoring. This scarcity of climatic data is a huge obstacle to conduct hydrological studies over some watersheds. In this context, our study aimed to evaluate the capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data to simulate the observed runoffs over the Bafing (the main important tributary of the Senegal River) before their potential integration in hydrological studies. The conceptual hydrological model GR4J (modele du Genie Rural (Agricultural Engineering Model) a 4 parametres Journalier (4 parameters Daily)) has been used, calibrated and validated over the 1961–1997 period with rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) as inputs. Then, the parameters that best reflect the rainfall-runoff relation, obtained during the cross-calibration-validation phase, were used to simulate runoff over the 1998–2004 period using observed and TRMM rainfalls. The findings of this study show that there is a high consistency between satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall. Over the 1998–2004 simulation period, the two rainfall data series show quite satisfactorily results. The output hydrographs from satellite-based estimates and ground-based observations of rainfall coincide quite well with the shape of observed hydrographs with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.88 and 0.80 for observed rainfalls and TRMM rainfalls, respectively.

Seasonal changes in the inundation area and water volume of the Tonle Sap River and its floodplain.

Abstract: Flood pulses occur annually along the Tonle Sap River (TSR) due to the large volume of water flowing from Tonle Sap Lake (TSL), its tributaries, and the Mekong River (MR). This study describes the seasonal changes in inundation area and water volume in the floodplain along the TSR over three years. The method employed time series remote sensing images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data, the digital elevation model (DEM) of the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), bathymetric data, and observed water level data. Adding normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a “third band” in the maximum likelihood classification (MLC) provided higher accuracy compared to thresholding NDVI and pure MLC (two bands) only. The results showed that the inundation area ranged from 123.8 to 3251.2 km2 (mean: 1028.5 km2) with overall accuracy of 96.9%. The estimated water volume ranged from 418.3 to 2223.9 million m3 (mean: 917.3 million m3) from the dry to wet season, respectively. Seasonally, the TSR floodplain accounted for up to 5.3% and 3.2% of the mean annual inflow and outflow of the TSR, respectively. In addition to the TSL water reservoir, the TSR and its floodplain exchanged and stabilized the flow of the MR and its downstream delta, respectively. Overall, the obtained results have enhanced our understanding of the TSR, supporting further studies on river connectivity and reversal flow in this study area.

Comparison of Daily Precipitation Bias Correction Methods Based on Four Regional Climate Model Outputs in Ouémé Basin, Benin

Abstract: Precipitation projections from regional climate models in West Africa are attributed with significant biases with respect to the observed. This study aims at evaluating of six methods of precipitation bias correction on four RCM (CCLM, CRCM, RACMO and REMO) outputs in the Oueme basin. The bias correction methods used are classified into three namely: the Delta approach, the Linear Scaling method and the quantile approaches. Corrected and uncorrected RCM precipitation data were compared with the observed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square error (RMSE). The findings showed that raw outputs of regional climate models (RCMs) are characterized with several biases. In general, the models overestimate precipitation. For daily precipitation correction, the quantile approaches assuming a gamma distribution for daily precipitation were not able to reduce the biases of precipitation. The empirical quantile mapping and the adjusted quantile mapping are the most effective in correcting the biases of daily precipitation. Thus the adjusted quantile mapping can be used to correct biases of precipitation projections for modeling the future availability of water resources.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Snow and Soil Frost—A Review of Measurement Techniques

Abstract: Large parts of the northern hemisphere are covered by snow and seasonal frost. Climate warming is affecting spatiotemporal variations of snow and frost, hence influencing snowmelt infiltration, aqu ...

Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources in the Klela Basin, Southern Mali

Abstract: Investigations of groundwater resources in order to understand aquifer system behavior are vital to the inhabitants of the Klela Basin, Mali, because groundwater is the only permanent water resource and is used for drinking water and irrigation. Due to climate change, this vital resource is being threatened. Therefore, MODFLOW was applied in this study to simulate groundwater dynamics. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Klela basin using the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Scenario 4.5 W/m2) climate scenario. Climatological, geological, hydrogeological, hydraulic and demographic data were collected and used as model input data. Groundwater recharge was estimated to be approximately 165.3 mm/year using the EARTH (Extended model for Aquifer Recharge and soil moisture Transport through the unsaturated Hardrock) model. Recharge was then used as groundwater model input. The sandstone aquifer in the study area was simulated in steady and transient conditions. The results showed that hydraulic conductivity values varied from 1.1 to 13.9 m/day. The model was used for scenario quantification after model calibration and verification using three different piezometer data sets. The results of the simulated MODFLOW model showed a decrease in groundwater levels over time.

A Conceptual Framework for Assessment of Governance Performance of Lake Basins: Towards Transformation to Adaptive and Integrative Governance

Abstract: Governance is essential to lake basin management, but it is the most challenged and needs increased attention. Lake Basin Governance performance assessment is designed to measure the progress and impacts of policies, institutions and the roles of various actors in ensuring sustainability. It measures the performance of technical/operational, social/networks, and institutional arrangement that make up the socio-ecological system. Governance performance assessment becomes very necessary with over-emphasis of institutions on resources utilization and exploitation. The purpose of this paper is to present a governance performance assessment framework specifically for lake basins. The Adaptive Integrated Lake Basin Management (AILBM) framework is a diagnostic and prescriptive performance assessment tool with an outcome to produce an adaptive and integrative system with equity, inclusiveness, transparency, accountability and flexibility to problem-solving and resilience. A case study on water governance performance assessment of the Songkhla Lake Basin (SLB) in Thailand is provided for illustration and application and indicated a poor performance rating on governance in the Basin, revealing gaps, defects, strengths and weaknesses in the current system, necessary to recommend future improvements.

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis in the Volta River Basin, West Africa

Abstract: In the Volta River Basin, flooding has been one of the most damaging natural hazards during the last few decades. Therefore, flood frequency estimates are important for disaster risk management. This study aims at improving knowledge of flood frequencies in the Volta River Basin using regional frequency analysis based on L-moments. Hence, three homogeneous groups have been identified based on cluster analysis and a homogeneity test. By using L-moment diagrams and goodness of fit tests, the generalized extreme value and the generalized Pareto distributions are found suitable to yield accurate flood quantiles in the Volta River Basin. Finally, regression models of the mean annual flood with the size of the drainage area, mean basin slope and mean annual rainfall are proposed to enable flood frequency estimation of ungauged sites within the study area.

Infilling Monthly Rain Gauge Data Gaps with Satellite Estimates for ASAL of Kenya

Abstract: Design and operation of water resources management systems in sub-Saharan Africa suffer from inadequate observation data. Long running uninterrupted time series of data are often not available for water resource planning. Incomplete datasets with missing gaps is a challenge for users of the data. Inadequate data compromise results of analyses leading to wrong inference and conclusions of scientific assessments and research. Infilling of missing sections of data is necessary prior to the practical use of hydrometeorological time series. This paper proposes the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite data as a viable alternate source of infill for missing rain gauge records. The least square regression method, using satellite-based estimates of rainfall was tested to fill in the missing data for 153 data points at nine rain gauge stations in Machakos, Makueni and the Kitui region of Kenya. Results suggest that the satellite rainfall estimates can be used as an alternative data source for rainfall series where the missing data gaps are large. The infilled data series were used in the development of monitoring, forecasting and drought early warning for Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) in Kenya.

Combined Modelling of Coastal Barrier Breaching and Induced Flood Propagation Using XBeach

Abstract: Breaching of coastal barriers is a three-dimensional process induced by complex interactions between hydrodynamics, sediment transport and soil avalanching processes. Although numerous coastal barriers are breached every year in many coastal countries, causing dramatic inundations of the nearshore areas, the understanding of the processes and interactions associated with both breaching and subsequent flood propagation is still poor. This might explain why their combined modelling and prediction has not yet been sufficiently addressed. Consequently, barrier breaching and subsequent inundation are still often modelled separately, thus ignoring the strong interaction between breaching and flooding. However, the combined modelling of such strongly coupled processes is crucial. Since the open-source model system “XBeach” consists, among others, of a nonlinear shallow water solver coupled with a morphodynamic model, also including a soil avalanching module, it has the potential to simulate both breaching and subsequent flood propagation together. Indeed, the mutual interactions between hydrodynamics and morphodynamics (including soil avalanching) are properly accounted for. This paper, therefore, aims to examine the applicability of XBeach for modelling coastal barrier breaching and inundation modelling in combination, instead of the current approaches, which address the modelling of each of these two processes separately. The performance of XBeach, in terms of inundation modelling, is assessed through comparisons of the results from this model system (i) with the results from common 1D and 2D flood propagation models and (ii) with observations for barrier breaching and subsequent inundation from a real case study. Besides providing an improved understanding of the breaching process, the results of this study demonstrate a new promising application of XBeach and its potential for calculating time-varying inland discharges, as well as for combined modelling of both dune breaching and subsequent flood propagation in coastal zones.

Verification of Ensemble Water Supply Forecasts for Sierra Nevada Watersheds

Abstract: This study verifies the skill and reliability of ensemble water supply forecasts issued by an innovative operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) at eight Sierra Nevada watersheds in the State of California. The factors potentially influencing the forecast skill and reliability are also explored. Retrospective ensemble forecasts of April–July runoff with 60 traces for these watersheds from 1985 to 2010 are generated with the HEFS driven by raw precipitation and temperature reforecasts from operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) for the first 15 days and climatology from day 16 up to day 365. Results indicate that the forecast skill is limited when the lead time is long (over three months or before January) but increases through the forecast period. There is generally a negative bias in the most probable forecast (median forecast) for most study watersheds. When the mean forecast is investigated instead, the bias becomes mostly positive and generally smaller in magnitude. The forecasts, particularly the wet forecasts (with less than 10% exceedance probability) are reliable on the average. The low April–July flows (with higher than 90% exceedance probability) are forecast more frequently than their actual occurrence frequency, while the medium April–July flows (90% to 10% exceedance) are forecast to occur less frequently. The forecast skill and reliability tend to be sensitive to extreme conditions. Particularly, the wet extremes show more significant impact than the dry extremes. Using different forcing data, including pure climatology and Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) shows no consistent improvement in the forecast skill and reliability, neither does using a longer (than the study period 1985–2010) period of record. Overall, this study is meaningful in the context of (1) establishing a benchmark for future enhancements (i.e., newer version of HEFS, GEFS and CFSv2) to ensemble water supply forecasting systems and (2) providing critical information (on what skill and reliability to expect at a given lead time, water year type and location) to water resources managers in making uncertainty-informed decisions in maximizing the reliability of the water supply.

Determination of Watershed Infiltration and Erosion Parameters from Field Rainfall Simulation Analyses

Abstract: Realistic modeling of infiltration, runoff and erosion processes from watersheds requires estimation of the effective hydraulic conductivity (Km) of the hillslope soils and how it varies with soil tilth, depth and cover conditions. Field rainfall simulation (RS) plot studies provide an opportunity to assess the surface soil hydraulic and erodibility conditions, but a standardized interpretation and comparison of results of this kind from a wide variety of test conditions has been difficult. Here, we develop solutions to the combined set of time-to-ponding/runoff and Green– Ampt infiltration equations to determine Km values from RS test plot results and compare them to the simpler calculation of steady rain minus runoff rates. Relating soil detachment rates to stream power, we also examine the determination of “erodibility” as the ratio thereof. Using data from over 400 RS plot studies across the Lake Tahoe Basin area that employ a wide range of rain rates across a range of soil slopes and conditions, we find that the Km values can be determined from the combined infiltration equation for ~80% of the plot data and that the laminar flow form of stream power best described a constant “erodibility” across a range of volcanic skirun soil conditions. Moreover, definition of stream power based on laminar flows obviates the need for assumption of an arbitrary Mannings “n” value and the restriction to mild slopes (<10%). The infiltration equation based Km values, though more variable, were on average equivalent to that determined from the simpler calculation of steady rain minus steady runoff rates from the RS plots. However, these Km values were much smaller than those determined from other field test methods. Finally, we compare RS plot results from use of different rainfall simulators in the basin and demonstrate that despite the varying configurations and rain intensities, similar erodibilities were determined across a range of infiltration and runoff rates using the laminar form of the stream power equation.

Comparison between Snow Albedo Obtained from Landsat TM, ETM+ Imagery and the SPOT VEGETATION Albedo Product in a Mediterranean Mountainous Site

Abstract: Albedo plays an important role in snow evolution modeling quantifying the amount of solar radiation absorbed and reflected by the snowpack, especially in mid-latitude regions with semiarid conditions. Satellite remote sensing is the most extensive technique to determine the variability of snow albedo over medium to large areas; however, scale effects from the pixel size of the sensor source may affect the results of snow models, with different impacts depending on the spatial resolution. This work presents the evaluation of snow albedo values retrieved from (1) Landsat images, L (16-day frequency with 30 × 30 m pixel size) and (2) SPOT VEGETATION albedo products, SV (10-day frequency with 1 × 1 km pixel size) in the Sierra Nevada mountain range in South Spain, a Mediterranean site representative of highly heterogeneous conditions. Daily snow albedo map series were derived from both sources, and used as input for the snow module in the WiMMed (Watershed Integrated Management in Mediterranean Environment) hydrological model, which was operational at the study area for snow monitoring for two hydrological years, 2011–2012 and 2012–2013, in the Guadalfeo river basin in Sierra Nevada. The results showed similar albedo trends in both data sources, but with different values, the shift between both sources being distributed in space according to the altitude. This difference resulted in lower snow cover fraction values in the SV-simulations that affected the rest of snow variables included in the simulation. This underestimation, mainly due to the effects of mixed pixels composed by both snow and snow-free areas, produced higher divergences from both sources during the melting periods when the evapo-sublimation and melting fluxes are more relevant. Therefore, the selection of the albedo data source in these areas, where snow evapo-sublimation plays a very important role and the presence of snow-free patches is very frequent, can condition the final accuracy of the simulations of operational models; Landsat is the recommended source if the monitoring of the snowpack is the final goal of the modeling, whereas the SV product may be advantageous when water resource planning in the medium and long term is intended. Applications of large pixel size albedo sources need further assessment for short-term operational objectives.

Surface Runoff in Watershed Modeling—Turbulent or Laminar Flows?

Abstract: Determination of overland sheet flow depths, velocities and celerities across the hillslope in watershed modeling is important towards estimation of surface storage, travel times to streams and soil detachment rates. It requires careful characterization of the flow processes. Similarly, determination of the temporal variation of hillslope-riparian-stream hydrologic connectivity requires estimation of the shallow subsurface soil hydraulic conductivity and soil-water retention (i.e., drainable porosities) parameters. Field rainfall and runoff simulation studies provide considerable information and insight into these processes; in particular, that sheet flows are likely laminar and that shallow hydraulic conductivities and storage can be determined from the plot studies. Here, using a 1 m by 2 m long runoff simulation flume, we found that for overland flow rates per unit width of roughly 30–60 mm2/s and bedslopes of 10%–66% with varying sand roughness depths that all flow depths were predicted by laminar flow equations alone and that equivalent Manning’s n values were depth dependent and quite small relative to those used in watershed modeling studies. Even for overland flow rates greater than those typically measured or modeled and using Manning’s n values of 0.30–0.35, often assumed in physical watershed model applications for relatively smooth surface conditions, the laminar flow velocities were 4–5 times greater, while the laminar flow depths were 4–5 times smaller. This observation suggests that travel times, surface storage volumes and surface shear stresses associated with erosion across the landscape would be poorly predicted using turbulent flow assumptions. Filling the flume with fine sand and conducting runoff studies, we were unable to produce sheet flow, but found that subsurface flows were onflow rate, soil depth and slope dependent and drainable porosities were only soil depth and slope dependent. Moreover, both the sand hydraulic conductivity and drainable porosities could be readily determined from measured capillary pressure displacement pressure head and assumption of pore-size distributions (i.e., Brooks-Corey lambda values of 2–3).

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Nokoué Lake in Benin

Abstract: Nokoue Lake is a complex ecosystem, the understanding of which requires control of physical processes that have occurred. For this, the Surface Water Modeling System (SMS) hydrodynamic model was calibrated and validated on the water depth data. The results of these simulations show a good match between the simulated and observed data for bottom roughness and turbulent exchange coefficients, of 0.02 m−1/3·s and 20 m2/s respectively. Once the ability of the model to simulate the hydrodynamics of the lake is testified, the model is used to simulate water surface elevation, exchanged flows and velocities. The simulation shows that the tidal amplitude is maximum at the inlet of the channel and decreases gradually from the inlet towards the lagoon’s main body. The propagation of the tidal wave is characterized by the dephasing and the flattening of the amplitude tide, which increases as we move away from the channel. This dephasing is characterized by a high and low tides delay of about 1 or 4 h and also depends on the tide amplitude and location. The velocities inside the lake are very low and do not exceed 0.03 m/s. The highest are obtained at the entrance of the channel. In a flood period, in contrast with the low-water period, incoming flows are higher than outflows, reinforced by the amplitude of the tide. An average renewal time of the lake has been estimated and corresponds during a flood period to 30 days for an average amplitude tide and 26.3 days on a high amplitude tide. In a low water period it is 40.2 days for an average amplitude tide and 30 days for a high amplitude tide. From the results obtained, several measures must be taken into account for the rational management of the lake water resources. These include a dam construction at the lake upstream, to control the river flows, and the dredging of the channel to facilitate exchanges with the sea.

Characteristics of Snowmelt and Runoff in a Mountain Basin in Tohoku District, Japan

Abstract: Winter snow cover occurs widely in Japan at comparatively low elevation and latitude. The water stored as snow is very important for irrigation of the rice crop during its early growth. We investigated the snowpack and snowmelt quantitatively on a daily and hourly basis during the snowmelt seasons from 2001 to 2008 in the Akazawa basin, Tohoku district. We used a snowmelt model to simulate the flux of snowmelt and rainwater in the snowpack. Among the years, total snowmelt varied between 190 to 540 mm from the beginning of Mar. to the late of Apr. We characterized the snowmelt runoff by making an index from the parameters of a storage routing model. We used the optimized parameters of the storage routing model to examine the output differences between the case in which the snowmelt flux at the snow surface was input, and the case in which the snowmelt flux from the base of the snowpack was input. The results clearly indicated that a snowpack influences the characteristics of snowmelt runoff.