Showing papers in "International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy in 2010"
TL;DR: In this article, the authors conjecture the possible technological determinants underpinning future economic long waves based on prominent forecasting studies of scholars and a leading British company, and assume that converging nano-bio-info-cogno technologies are the foundation of 5th and 6th Kondratieff waves, whereas the future technological revolution that may underpin the 7th economic long wave is assumed to be Faster-Than-Light (FTL) Technologies.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to conjecture the possible technological determinants underpinning future economic long waves. The foresight is based on prominent forecasting studies of scholars and a leading British company. This research assumes that converging nano-bio-info-cogno technologies are the foundation of 5th and 6th Kondratieff waves, whereas the future technological revolution that may underpin the 7th economic long wave is assumed to be Faster-Than-Light (FTL) Technologies. The positive effects of these next technological revolutions on worldwide economic system are a high increase in productivity, employment rate, consumption and economic growth that lead to longer, happier and healthier living as well as general well-being.
111 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods is presented, and the authors suggest considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of future endeavours.
Abstract: This paper posits nine dimensions to distinguish the types of foresight studies. It arrays a rich repertoire of 13 families of foresight methods. It then suggests considerations in deciding which of those methods suit the various types of foresight endeavours. There is no one way to conduct effective foresight studies.
58 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors categorised and analyzed the academic publications and understand the contents of foresight, the empirical cases, benefits and benefits, the foresight methodology, the risk and implementation framework, and the implications for Taiwan's foresight projects.
Abstract: This research is to categorise and analyse the academic publications and understand the contents of foresight, the empirical cases of foresight, the benefits of foresight, the foresight methodology, the risk and implementation framework of foresight to answer the pressing concerns for Taiwan's foresight projects by the overview and organisation of journal paper on national foresight. This research applies the SDOS search engine of Inderscience and Elsevier to screen 494 relate papers published from 1984 to 2005 in which 117 key papers were selected. By doing this, three distinct periods, four trends and six implications for Taiwan of national technology foresight are identified.
25 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the furniture cluster of Jepara (Java, Indonesia) was investigated using a detailed fieldwork, showing a dominant learning-by-doing and interaction with buyers, and a low level of innovativeness, but also the presence of some highly innovative firms indicating a perspective for improvement.
Abstract: Among small firms in developing countries, innovation is often sorely needed. However, localised interactive learning tends to be poorly developed in these countries meaning that the inflow of new knowledge depends on interaction with global customers. Small firms may however be captured in unfavourable subcontracting relations and a low absorption capacity. This paper takes the furniture cluster of Jepara (Java, Indonesia) as an example, using a detailed fieldwork. The results picture a dominant learning-by-doing and interaction with buyers, and a low level of innovativeness, but also the presence of some highly innovative firms indicating a perspective for improvement.
15 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe the evolution of the UK's National Foresight Programme through its three cycles of existence and assess the impacts of each stage, the first two in brief and the third in some detail.
Abstract: The paper describes the evolution of the UK's National Foresight Programme through its three cycles of existence. It assesses the impacts of each stage, the first two in brief and the third in some detail, drawing upon a recently completed evaluation by PREST. Evolution is noted from an exercise aiming to set priorities and build networks as a broad instrument of science and innovation policy to a set of science-based discrete projects reaching across government. Questions are raised concerning how the programme has reacted (or not) to evaluation, and what lessons there are from the present stage.
12 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed the prospect of future Korean society up to the year 2030, which was designed to widen the participation of the stakeholder and to enhance the link to policy measures.
Abstract: Korea recently completed the third technology foresight (2005). In the exercise, the prospect of future Korean society up to the year 2030 was developed. The exercise was designed to widen the participation of the stakeholder and to enhance the link to policy measures. Future and present needs were deduced through surveys on the general public that were refined through expert panels. Then, the committee for each technology sector was set-up to develop the future technological subjects. They were Delphi-surveyed. The scenarios for the future social system were drafted for envisaging the implication of uncertain developments and for examining the scope for possible action plan.
10 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors investigated the rationale of the graduated response and its requirements and evaluated both French and British systems from theoretical and practical standpoints, and concluded that the worthiness of the proposed policies, potential problems caused by technological issues and the timeliness of such policies are discussed.
Abstract: This paper aims to assess the graduated response systems implemented in France (HADOPI) and in the UK (Digital Economy Act) to reduce consumer piracy. It investigates the rationale of graduated response and its requirements and evaluates (from theoretical and practical standpoints) both French and British systems. While the French system fulfils more requirements, the British system reflects a more cautious approach that involves a 'double' graduated response. The costs of both implementations are then investigated. The paper is concluded with remarks on the worthiness of graduated response, the potential problems caused by technological issues and the timeliness of such policies.
8 citations
TL;DR: One way to tackle this issue is to create a web portal of a community of practice – a system that is readily accessible for communication, tried-and-trusted and easy to use.
Abstract: Competence approach in education gives priority to learning outcomes and increased involvement of students in active, constructive engagement with content, tools and services in the learning process. Thus, quality and relevant learning materials are becoming more and more important for a learner. The strategy can be realised by encouraging faculties and students to use the online environment and see the real advantages of operating in it. One way to tackle this issue is to create a web portal of a community of practice – a system that is readily accessible for communication, tried-and-trusted and easy to use.
6 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a framework that encompasses internal and external factors to identify how EMS promotes innovation to firms, at the same time bearing the need to protect intellectual property is proposed, based on the institutional and resource-based theories and explains how firms may gain competitive advantage and enhance innovation from EMS implementation.
Abstract: Various studies have examined the relationship between intellectual property, Environmental Management Systems (EMSs) and innovation. Some of these studies have focused on identifying internal factors that provide competitive advantages to firms, which adopt EMS, while others examine external factors that promote environmental innovation to firms. This paper proposes a framework that encompasses internal and external factors to identify how EMS promotes innovation to firms, at the same time bearing the need to protect intellectual property. This framework is based on the institutional and resource-based theories and explains how firms may gain competitive advantage and enhance innovation from EMS implementation.
5 citations
TL;DR: The authors describes several recent advances in technology foresight, particularly those involving more powerful methodology, such as the Grey Model, several new models of diffusion of innovations, and roadmapping.
Abstract: This paper describes several recent advances in technology foresight, particularly those involving more powerful methodology. Topics discussed include the Grey Model, several new models of diffusion of innovations, and roadmapping.
4 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, an in-depth analysis of patenting activity in Poland, showing Poland's strengths and weaknesses in the field of technology, is presented, combining local and global perspective with regard to Poland's competitiveness, two patent-based indicators are analysed.
Abstract: This paper offers in-depth analysis of patenting activity in Poland, showing Poland's strengths and weaknesses in the field of technology. To combine local and global perspective with regard to Poland's competitiveness, two patent-based indicators are analysed: the Revealed Technological Comparative Advantage (RTCA) index and the Patent Share (PS) index. This analysis shows that both local and global dimensions of IP protection are not well developed yet in Poland, however, since 2004 there have been some emerging domains of technology, where Polish inventors have been gaining relative strengths.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors document a range of judgements about dealing with the implications of globalisation for S&T management and managing science and technology risks and conduct 90 interviews around the world to collected opinions about globalisation and risk management of science and technologies.
Abstract: The objective of the paper was to document a range of judgements about dealing with the implications of globalisation for S&T management and managing science and technology risks. About 90 interviews were conducted around the world to collected opinions about globalisation and risk management of science and technology. Issues about globalisation and risk management of Science and Technology are discussed and content based on interviews are summarised.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors synthesize the viewpoints based on theoretical contributions towards foresight evolution and highlight the rationale behind national foresight mechanism through the distinct roles of national knowledge network organisation and suggest that targeting on a national goal, foresight as a knowledge network system is similar to the coordinating mechanism as any decision supporting system.
Abstract: This paper synthesises the viewpoints based on theoretical contributions towards foresight evolution and highlights the rationale behind national foresight mechanism through the distinct roles of national knowledge network organisation. Rationale underlines foresight and suggests that targeting on a national goal, foresight as a knowledge network system is similar to the coordinating mechanism as any decision supporting system. This paper argues that the way of knowledge organised and the relevant policy formulated be more closely related to the structure of decision support network of a nation. The transaction-cost explanation helps reshape the organisation of foresight institutions in their role and rights structure.
TL;DR: The authors conducted an analysis based on three dimensions of consensus building, including definition of problem, structure of negotiation, and motivation to participate, using three national foresights, including UK technology foresight in 1994-1998, Swedish foresight and German FUTUR in 2001-2004.
Abstract: Participative foresight has become a popular tool in planning science and technology policy. This work systematically reviews three participative foresight cases based on three preconditions of consensus building, and attempts to draw some implications based on the comparison of these cases. This work conducts an analysis based on three dimensions of consensus building, including definition of problem, structure of negotiation, and motivation to participate, using three national foresights, including UK technology foresight in 1994-1998, Swedish foresight in 1998-2000, and German FUTUR in 2001-2004. The analysis reveals some significant factors of consensus building in participative foresight.
TL;DR: In this paper, a typology of foresight outcomes is developed in order to more effectively evaluate, and assess the impact of the foresight on policy, and a case study of a recent multi-national foresight project which examined human health care in the post-genomic era demonstrates the crucial role of Foresight in providing a means to grasp the complexity of the potential impacts, for reconciling the many different perspectives involved, and for providing a sound basis for future policies.
Abstract: Under the conditions of increased demand for ways of addressing the future through strategic intelligence, foresight is progressively being embedded as a planning, consultation and decision making tool. A typology of foresight outcomes is developed in order to more effectively evaluate, and assess the impact of foresight on policy. A case study of a recent multi-national foresight project which examined human health care in the post-genomic era demonstrates the crucial role of foresight in providing a means to grasp the complexity of the potential impacts, for reconciling the many different perspectives involved, and for providing a sound basis for future policies. The impact of the project is assessed against the various possible outcomes.
TL;DR: This research is to analyse the blog foresight system, the literatures on the blog and consensus-forming, characteristics of blogs, blog-executed foresight mechanism, and compare different countriesBlog foresight systems.
Abstract: Technology foresight has become a popular tool in the planning of the science and technology policy. This research is to analyse the blog foresight system, the literatures on the blog and consensus-forming, characteristics of blogs, blog-executed foresight mechanism, and compare different countries blog foresight systems. This paper uses a semiconductor material as an example. It was shown the developing internet/blog foresight system, which is good for saving cost of technology foresight and speed up technology foresight.
TL;DR: The NeXT model is proposed, which consists of two stages: foresight of thepriority areas based on the conflicts between near-future trends and verifying the priority areas, and a method for calculating a Degree of Conflict using FURPS+ model.
Abstract: To reinforce the research development power, it is necessary to clarify the methodology of formulating the R&D strategies. This paper focuses on the methodology of setting the themes for R&D. We propose the NeXT model, which consists of two stages: foresight of the priority areas based on the conflicts between near-future trends and verifying the priority areas. We show a method for calculating a Degree of Conflict using FURPS+ model. The NeXT model comes in compliance with the characteristics of the current society in which the link between technology and society is stronger than ever before.
TL;DR: The role and place of information, knowledge and intellectual property in the knowledge economy are discussed in this article, where specific procedures of creating a knowledge-producing cluster are described. But they do not discuss specific procedures for creating knowledge-sharing clusters.
Abstract: The role and place of information, knowledge and intellectual property in the knowledge economy are discussed. The paper describes specific procedures of creating a knowledge-producing cluster.
TL;DR: In this article, the role of the competition in a globalised market economy is emphasized, which represents a guarantee for a free game of the market forces and for building an economic environment able to cope with competitive pressures of the global market.
Abstract: A market economy cannot exist without competition, which represents a guarantee for a free game of the market forces and for building an economic environment able to cope with competitive pressures of the global market. Thus, the legislative framework in the competition field is essential for strengthening the private sector as an engine of growth and development and for prohibiting any restrictive practices by undertakings, which may be shaped as agreements or abuse of dominant position. Starting from such aspects, this paper aims to emphasise the role of the competition in a globalised world.