Showing papers in "Journal of Transport Economics and Policy in 1998"

The value of travel time. a review of british evidence

Abstract: This paper reviews British evidence regarding the value of travel time available from models developed since 1980. There are two main aspects to the review. First, a regression model has been developed to explain variations in the value of time across studies. Second, the author reports on a review of variations in the value of time within specific studies. The review also places the research in historical perspective, with reference to work conducted elsewhere. (A)

Land-use/transport interaction models: past and future.

Abstract: This paper focuses on the second half of the twentieth century, when the need for adequate models to understand transport/land-use interactions has become important because of the twin problems of traffic congestion and pressures for land development. The author traces the development and use of various types of models to achieve this, examines the enabling technologies and their applications, and gives pointers for their future use.

The Effects of Competition in Swedish Local Bus Services

Abstract: The Swedish bus and railway sectors have been recognised as important early cases of regulatory reforms that led to both vertical and horizontal disintegration as well as market-opening. This thesis investigates the origin and evolution of these reforms from 1979 to 2009, focussing on the markets for passenger services. The aim is to improve our understanding of the background, resulting nature, and consequences of these regulatory reforms. A combination of qualitative and quantitative analyses has been applied; e.g. the thesis makes use of a unique database of longitudinal industry statistics. This thesis shows that the origins of the Swedish reform process were internal and largely unrelated to any objectives of deregulated market-opening. However, a combination of the nature of the initial reforms, the behaviour of market actors, and certain key events accidentally sparked a trend towards deregulation, which has had profound effects on market structure and performance. The step-by-step evolution, in particular the introduction and expansion of competitive tendering, is shown to have had path-dependent characteristics. Swedish competitive tendering of bus and railway services has had important effects on costs and subsidies, but has also generated the problematic behaviour of strategic bidding. Included within are detailed articles which make additional contributions to relevant theories and offer normative advice concerning the design and implementation of regulatory reforms in these as well as other sectors.

Establishing a fare elasticity regime for urban passenger transport

Abstract: Public transport operators increasingly use revenue optimising techniques in establish ing mixtures of ticket types and fare levels In predicting the response of the market to specific fare classes and levels (for example, weekly ticket), a knowledge of how vari ous market segments respond to both the choice of ticket type within a public transport mode and the choice between modes is crucial to the outcome In some circumstances the interest is in evaluating the patronage and revenue implications of variations in of fered prices for the existing regime of fare classes; in other circumstances the interest is in changes in the fare class offerings either through deletions and/or additions of classes A missing ingredient in many operational studies is a matrix of appropriate direct and cross-fare elasticities relating to specific/are classes within a choice set of fare class opportunities Surprisingly the research literature is relatively barren of empirical evi dence that is rich enough to distinguish sensitivities to particular fare class offerings within a predefined choice set of offerings Although there is a plethora of empirical ev idence offered on direct elasticities (Oum et al, 1992; Goodwin, 1992; Luk and Hep burn, 1993), primarily treated as unweighted or weighted average fares within each public transport mode, as reviewed by Mayworm et al (1980) and Oum et al (1992), the extant literature offers limited evidence on cross-elasticities The empirical evidence on fare cross-elasticities is typically limited to aggregate measures across all fare types and levels, occasionally stratified by time of day and trip length The majority of the evidence is based on studies using data collected in the 1970s and the early 1980s The studies from which reported cross-elasticities are drawn, how ever, do not consider the variations in cross-elasticities with respect to ticket type The

The reform of rail transport in great britain.

Abstract: Two resolutions emerged in the early 1990s to bring about the reform of Britain's rail industry. In 1991 the European Commission issued a directive, 91/440/EEC,1 calling upon each Member State to introduce a degree of open access rights2 to enable third party train operators to gain access on fair commercial grounds to the EC rail system. To this end, States were also directed at this time to separate their accounting systems for rail infrastructure from their operations, to facilitate transparency of track access costs. The subsequent European Commission's (1996) White Paper on railway financ es, A strategy for Revitalising the Community's Railways? called for Member States to allow their railways to operate on a commercial basis, and for governments to compen sate their railways for operating non-profitable services. EC Directive 91/440/EEC was implemented into UK law by the Railway Regula tions 1992; the Railways Act 1993 builds on the Directive's objectives. Objectives set out in the Act also pre-empt similar goals set out in the EC 1996 White Paper, notably on financial operation. Part of the British approach to fulfilling the EC's financial ob

Modelling and forecasting car ownership in britain: a conintegration and general to specific approach.

Abstract: The most recent National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF) (Department of Transport, 1989) predict an increase in per capita car ownership for Britain of between 51.6 and 71.3 per cent over the period 1990 to 2025.l Car use is predicted to increase by between 71.7 and 112.7 per cent over the same period. Since current levels of car ownership and use already contribute towards significant road traffic congestion costs, as well as other external costs (Pearce, 1993), these forecasts imply serious problems in reconciling the demand for road space with its supply. Given the importance of these forecasts in deter mining transport policies, it is essential that they are as accurate as possible. This paper uses the general to specific methodology and the concept of cointegration to develop a well-specified model of per capita car ownership that produces ex post forecasts gener ally superior to those of the NRTF. The National Road Traffic Forecasts of 1980, 1984, and 1989 are based on an eclec tic approach to modelling the growth of private and commercial road traffic. A combi nation of cross-section and time-series analysis is used, and this quantitative analysis is sometimes supplemented with, or modified by, judgements based on factors such as the international experience of road traffic growth. But as Button et al. (1982, p.65) observe: "Present Department of Transport forecasts ... are ad hoc. What is required is a sin gle model, incorporating simultaneously both causal and proxy variables, from which a range of forecasts would be obtained by making suitable assumptions about the likely time paths of the independent variables."

British ports policies since 1945.

Abstract: privatisation. It may be argued that many of these changes, and their results, have stemmed from adopting ideas developed in other contexts without appreciating the special charac teristics of seaports: that is, from a failure to understand the basic principles of the subject. It must, of course, be admitted that academic studies of seaport economics have also been lacking, notably in employing the concept of economic rent and the related problems of its distribution. The most sensible economic objective for national seaport policies (Goss, 1990a) is to aim to maximise the sum of the producers' surpluses on the exports, and of consumers' surpluses on the imports, passing through them, subject to the constraint of covering the marginal opportunity costs of the resources involved. However, a number of other factors may intervene. Other economic objectives may be specified, such as "maximising jobs in the locality", even though this is likely to prove difficult, and no rational level of assistance can be specified.1 With or without formal investment appraisals, over-optimistic trade forecasts may be adopted.2 Non-economic objectives may appear, as with Palmerston's

Optimal bus subsidy and cross subsidy with a logit choice model

Abstract: This paper investigates the impact on bus subsidy analysis of using a probabilistic (logit) choice model predicting random and planned user behaviour. The paper addresses the question of the conventional negative relationships between optimal unit subsidy and route patronage. The paper shows that this result continues to hold under a logit model. There can also be rapid increases in total subsidy for small increases in patronage. (A)

The effect of liberalised air transport bilaterals on foreign traffic diversion. the case of canada

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of Canada's facilitating bilateral air agreements with the UK, The Netherlands and Germany, on the volume of visitors from those countries to Canada. It also studies the effects of the US liberal bilateral air agreements on diverting Canadian foreign visitors away from direct routes to routes that pass through the US. These objectives are accomplished by estimating visitor volume models and route share models. (A)

An Economic Analysis of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts with Special Reference to Sydney Airport

Abstract: This paper examines economic aspects of weather forecasts for aviation known as Ter minal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs). TAFs are predictions of weather conditions within an eight-kilometre radius of an aerodrome; they are issued every six hours, have a twen ty-four hour validity, and are produced for all major airports in the world (BoM, 1981). In Australia, TAFs are produced by the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), an agency of the Australian Federal Government. Although TAFs have many safety-related and opera tional roles, their use during flight planning is the focus of this paper. Many airlines rely on TAFs during flight planning; for example to determine the carrying of additional (al ternate) fuel for diversion to an alternative airport if weather conditions around the in tended destination are adverse. Inaccurate TAF information may cause unnecessary diversions or mean that additional fuel is carried unnecessarily. Aviation is both weather and weather information sensitive (Marks, 1980). Informa tion has economic value only if it affects human decision making; TAF information af fects decisions. The objective of this paper is to assess the economic benefits and costs of TAFs. The analysis involves the estimation of: (1) the direct benefits of improved TAF accuracy; (2) the direct value of TAFs at a particular accuracy level and over a specified time period; (3) the net social benefits of the TAFs; and (4) the optimal level of TAF accuracy. Twenty-two years of historical TAF verification data, and real airline cost data, are analysed within the decision making framework formulated below. The results presented are based on the international operations of Qantas Airways Limited into Sydney Airport. The direct benefits and costs are defined in terms of the role of TAFs in determining aircraft fuel load for airlines employing a discretionary alternate fuel policy.1

Regulation in the road freight transport sector

Abstract: Although supply chain management is increasingly seen as a key strategic factor in determining industrial success in global markets, a survey of articles appearing in this Journal during the last thirty years reveals a paucity of contributions in the field of road freight transport. The transport economist appears increasingly to be confined to well trodden paths in the passenger sector, while the area of logistics, and the key developments being made in it, are now the domain of specialists in operations management. Ofthe 600 plus articles that have appeared in the last thirty years, only some 5 per cent have been in the road freight area. Operations management is, however, concerned with achieving an organisational objective givenexternal constraints; it is not concerned with the impact of those objectives and constraints on national or sector economic performance ? the area of the transport economist. It is argued in this paper that one of the most important of those external constraints, road freight regulation, has created inefficient markets to the cost of the general economy. Lack of economic investigation is, therefore, to be regretted, and it is to be hoped that future editions ofthe Journal will show increased interest in the freight transport sector. The goals of regulatory policies in the freight transport sector are multifarious, but the key ones can be conveniendy grouped under either economic or public policy strategies. Economic regulatory strategies are aimed at removing or mitigating the effects of market distortions, and relate to such factors as monopoly, structural market failure, externalities, and market transparency. Public policy regulatory strategies are aimed at such factors as quality of life, employment, industrial structure and regional diversity, and can have an opposite direction or intention from economic regulatory strategy in that they may act to distort markets. Historically within individual countries one or other (economic or public policy) of these strategies has tended to be dominant, but since the beginning ofthe 1980s the impact of external factors ? notably the development of global markets and competition in general and of the Single European Market (SEM) in particular ? has created a convergence of policies towards deregulation.

Developments in transport policy. the uk transport policy white paper

Abstract: The article discusses the UK Government's White Paper on the future of transport, published in July 1998. The main problems are seen as the congestion and environmental externalities associated with road traffic and the absence of a real choice in many cases for the traveller. Use of the car is perceived as a problem with the difficulty of setting real road traffic targets at national level as well as environmental costs. The White Paper is considered a useful statement on which to build although difficult political decisions will be required to put the policy into practice.

On the road to transport liberalisation? belgian road hauliers' policy preferences

Abstract: This paper examines the factors that determine the attitudes of Belgian road hauliers to transport policies. The findings indicate that: (1) policy preferences are not the same throughout the industry, but differ across firms; (2) hauliers favour more liberal policies when they face less EU-competition, have foreign establishments, and have foreign alliances; (3) foreign hauliers, and hauliers having many drivers, are more likely to favour free market access; and (4) non-EU competition has only a small influence on preferences. (A)