Showing papers in "National Bureau of Economic Research in 2003"

The Rise of the Skilled City

Abstract: For more than a century, educated cities have grown more quickly than comparable cities with less human capital. This fact survives a battery of other control variables, metropolitan area fixed effects and tests for reverse causality. We also find that skilled cities are growing because they are becoming more economically productive (relative to less skilled cities), not because these cities are becoming more attractive places to live. Most surprisingly, we find evidence suggesting that the skills-city growth connection occurs mainly in declining areas and occurs in large part because skilled cities are better at adapting to economic shocks. As in Schultz (1964), skills appear to permit adaptation.

Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies

Abstract: This handbook chapter studies the theoretical micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies. We distinguish three types of micro-foundations, based on sharing, matching, and learning mechanisms. For each of these three categories, we develop one or more core models in detail and discuss the literature in relation to those models. This allows us to give a precise characterisation of some of the main theoretical underpinnings of urban agglomeration economies, to discuss modelling issues that arise when working with these tools, and to compare different sources of agglomeration economies in terms of the aggregate urban outcomes they produce as well as in terms of their normative implications.

Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Abstract: We examine to what extent variants of inflation-forecast targeting can avoid stabilization bias, incorporate history-dependence, and achieve determinacy of equilibrium, so as to reproduce a socially optimal equilibrium. We also evaluate these variants in terms of the transparency of the connection with the ultimate policy goals and the robustness to model perturbations. A suitably designed inflation-forecast targeting rule can achieve the social optimum and at the same time have a more transparent connection to policy goals and be more robust than competing instrument rules.

Legal Institutions and Financial Development

Abstract: A burgeoning literature finds that financial development exerts a first-order impact on long-run economic growth, which raises critical questions, such as why do some countries have well-developed growth-enhancing financial systems while others do not? The law and finance theory focuses on the role of legal institutions in explaining international differences in financial development. First, the law and finance theory holds that in countries where legal systems enforce private property rights, support private contractual arrangements, and protect the legal rights of investors, savers are more willing to finance firms and financial markets flourish. Second, the different legal traditions that emerged in Europe over previous centuries and were spread internationally through conquest, colonization, and imitation help explain cross-country differences in investor protection, the contracting environment, and financial development today. But there are countervailing theories and evidence that challenge both parts of the law and finance theory. Many argue that there is more variation within than across legal origin families. Others question the central role of legal tradition and point to politics, religious orientation, or geography as the dominating factor driving financial development. Finally, some researchers question the central role of legal institutions and argue that other factors, such as a competitive products market, social capital, and informal rules are also important for financial development. Beck and Levine describe the law and finance theory, along with skeptical and competing views, and review empirical evidence on both parts of the law and finance view.

Optimal Inflation-Targeting Rules

Abstract: This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy for a range of alternative economic models in terms of a flexible inflation targeting rule, with a target criterion that depends on the model specification. It shows which forecast horizons should matter, and which variables besides inflation should be taken into account, for each specification. The likely quantitative significance of the various factors considered in the general discussion is then assessed by estimating a small, structural model of the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism with explicit optimizing foundations. An optimal policy rule is computed for the estimated model, and shown to correspond to a multi-stage inflation-forecast targeting procedure. The degree to which actual U.S. policy over the past two decades has conformed to the optimal target criteria is then considered.

Policy Evaluation in Uncertain Economic Environments

Abstract: It will be remembered that the seventy translators of the Septuagint were shut up in seventy separate rooms with the Hebrew text and brought out with them. when they emerged, seventy identical translations. Would the same miracle be vouchsafed if seventy multiple correlators were shut up with the same statistical material? And anyhow, 1 suppose, if each had a different economist perched on his a priori, that would make a difference to the outcome. (1) THIS PAPER DESCRIBES SOME approaches to macroeconomic policy evaluation in the presence of uncertainty about the structure of the economic environment under study. The perspective we discuss is designed to facilitate policy evaluation for several forms of uncertainty. For example, our approach may be used when an analyst is unsure about the appropriate economic theory that should be assumed to apply, or about the particular functional forms that translate a general theory into a form amenable to statistical analysis. As such, the methods we describe are, we believe, particularly useful in a range of macroeconomic contexts where fundamental disagreements exist as to the determinants of the problem under study. In addition, this approach recognizes that even if economists agree on the underlying economic theory that describes a phenomenon, policy evaluation often requires taking a stance on details of the economic environment, such as lag lengths and functional form, that the theory does not specify. Hence our analysis is motivated by concerns similar to those that led to the development of model calibration methods. Unlike in the usual calibration approach, however, we do not reject formal statistical inference methods but rather incorporate model uncertainty into them. The key intuition underlying our analysis is that, for a broad range of contexts, policy evaluation can be conducted on the basis of two factors: a policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. What this means is that one of the main objects of interest to scholarly researchers, namely, identification of the true or best model of the economy, is of no intrinsic importance in the policy evaluation context, even though knowledge of this model would, were it available, be very relevant in policy evaluation. Hence model selection, a major endeavor in much empirical macroeconomic research, is not a necessary component of policy evaluation. To the contrary: our argument is that, in many cases, model selection is actually inappropriate, because conditioning policy evaluation on a particular model ignores the role of model uncertainty in the overall uncertainty that surrounds the effects of a given policy choice. This is true both in the sense that many statistical analyses of policies do not systematically evaluate the robustness of policies across different model specifications, and in the sense that many analyses fail to adequately account for the effects of model selection on statistical inference. In contrast, we advocate the use of model averaging methods, which represent a formal way through which one can avoid policy evaluation that is conditional on a particular economic model. From a theoretical perspective, model uncertainty has important implications for the evaluation of policies. This was originally recognized in William Brainard's classic analysis, (2) where model uncertainty occurs in the sense that the effects of a policy on a macroeconomic outcome of interest are unknown, but may be described by the distribution of a parameter that measures the marginal effect of the policy on the outcome. Much of what we argue in terms of theory may be interpreted as a generalization of Brainard's original framework and associated insights to a broader class of model uncertainty. An additional advantage of our approach is that it provides a firm foundation for integrating empirical analysis with policy evaluation. …

Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters

Abstract: Recent years have seen the development of a large literature on balance sheet factors in emerging-market financial crises. In this paper we discuss three concepts widely used in this literature. Two of them original sin' and debt intolerance' seek to explain the same phenomenon, namely, the volatility of emerging-market economies and the difficulty these countries have in servicing and repaying their debts. The debt-intolerance school traces the problem to institutional weaknesses of emerging-market economies that lead to weak and unreliable policies, while the original-sin school traces the problem instead to the structure of global portfolios and international financial markets. The literature on currency mismatches, in contrast, is concerned with the consequences of these problems and with how they are managed by the macroeconomic and financial authorities. Thus, the hypotheses and problems to which these three terms refer are analytically distinct. The tendency to use them synonymously has been an unnecessary source of confusion.

School Choice and School Productivity. Could School Choice Be a Tide that Lifts All Boats

Abstract: A school that is more productive is one that produces higher achievement in its pupils for each dollar it spends. In this paper, I comprehensively review how school choice might affect productivity. I begin by describing the importance of school productivity, then explain the economic logic that suggests that choice will affect productivity, and finish by presenting much of the available evidence on school choice and school productivity. The most intriguing evidence comes from three important, recent choice reforms: vouchers in Milwaukee, charter schools in Michigan, and charter schools in Arizona. I show that public school students' achievement rose significantly and rapidly in response to competition, under each of the three reforms. Public school spending was unaffected, so the productivity of public schools rose, dramatically in the case in Milwaukee.

A Quasi-Experimental Estimate of the Impact of Financial Aid on College-Going

Abstract: Although state and federal governments heavily subsidize the price of college, estimates of the impact of these subsidies on college enrollment have not been well-identified. I use a regression discontinuity design to study the impact of the CalGrant program in California on college going. Eligibility requires students to meet minimum thresholds on three characteristics: income, assets and high school Grade Point Average. Because there are several dimensions of eligibility, the analysis allows for specification tests, estimating any discontinuities along a given dimension of eligibility, dependent upon whether one satisfied the other two dimensions of eligibility. The paper uses a novel data collection strategy to measure subsequent college enrollment for 150,000 financial aid applicants in 1998 and 1999. The results suggest large impacts (3 to 4 percentage points) of grant eligibility on college enrollment among financial aid applicants, with larger impacts on the choice of private four-year colleges in California.

The Effects of Multinational Production on Wages and Working Conditions in Developing Countries

Abstract: This paper is designed to assess the empirical evidence regarding the effects of multinational production on wages and working conditions in developing countries. It is motivated by the controversies that have emerged, especially in the past decade or so, concerning whether or not multinational firms in developing countries are exploiting their workers by paying low wages and subjecting them to coercive, abusive, unhealthy, and unsafe conditions in the workplace. We begin by addressing the efforts and programs of social activist groups and universities and colleges involved in the "Anti-Sweatshop" Campaign in the United States, the social accountability of multinational firms, and the role of such international institutions as the International Labor Organization and World Trade Organization in dealing with labor standards and trade. We then consider the conceptual aspects of the effects of foreign direct investment on wages in host countries and the effects of outsourcing, subcontracting, and other forms of fragmentation by multinational firms. We note in particular that available theories yield ambiguous predictions for the effects of multinational production on wages, leaving the effects to be examined empirically. We therefore, in the final section of the paper, review the empirical evidence on multinational firm wages in developing countries, and the relationship between foreign direct investment and labor rights. This evidence indicates that multinational firms routinely pay higher wages and provide better working conditions than their local counterparts, and they are typically not attracted preferentially to countries with weak labor standards.

An Alternative Interpretation of the 'Resource Curse': Theory and Policy Implications

Abstract: The existence of a natural resource curse has been a longstanding theme in the economic literature and in policy discussions. We propose an alternative mechanism and study its policy implications. The mechanism is based on the interaction between two building blocks: specialization in non-tradables and financial market imperfections. We show that if a country has a sufficiently large non-resource tradable sector, relative prices can be stable, even when the resource sector generates significant volatility in the demand for non-tradables. However, when the non-resource tradable sector disappears, the economy becomes much more volatile, because shocks to the demand for non-tradables - possibly associated with shocks to resource income - will not be accommodated by movements in the allocation of labor but instead by expenditure-switching. This requires much higher relative price movements. The presence of bankruptcy costs makes interest rates dependent on relative price volatility. These two effects interact causing the economy to specialize inefficiently away from non-resource tradables: the less it produces of them, the greater the volatility of relative prices, the higher the interest rate the sector faces, causing it to shrink even further until it disappears. At that point, the economy will face an even higher interest rate and a lower level of capital and output in the non-tradable sector. An increase in resource income that leads to specialization causes a large decline in welfare: thus the idea of the curse. Specialization is determined by the expected size and volatility in resource income. The paper justifies stabilization and savings policies as well as policies to make financial markets more efficient. However, we also find some support for more interventionist second-best trade and financial

Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization

Abstract: Monetary policy can achieve average inflation equal to a given inflation target and, at best, a good compromise between inflation variability and output-gap variability. Monetary policy cannot completely stabilize either inflation or the output gap. Increased credibility in the form of inflation expectations anchored on the inflation target will reduce the variability of inflation and the output gap. Central banks can improve transparency and accountability by specifying not only an inflation target but also the dislike of output-gap variability relative to inflation variability. Central banks can best achieve both the long-run inflation target and the best compromise between inflation and output-gap stability by engaging in forecast targeting,' where the bank selects the feasible combination of inflation and output-gap projections that minimize the loss function and the corresponding instrument-rate plan and sets the instrument-rate accordingly. Forecast targeting implies that the instrument responds to all information that significantly affects the projections of inflation and the output gap. Therefore it cannot be expressed in terms of a simple instrument rule, like a Taylor rule. The objective of financial stability, including a well-functioning payment system, can conveniently be considered as a restriction on monetary policy that does not bind in normal times, but does bind in times of financial crises. By producing and publishing Financial Stability Reports with indicators of financial stability, the central bank can monitor the degree of financial stability and issue warnings to concerned agents and authorities in due time and this way avoid deteriorating financial stability. Forecast targeting implies that asset-price developments and potential asset-price bubbles are taken into account and responded to the extent that they are deemed to affect the projections of the target variables, inflation and the output gap. In most cases, it will be difficult to make precise judgments, though, especially to identify bubbles with reasonable certainty. The zero bound, liquidity traps and risks of deflation are serious concerns for a monetary policy aimed at low inflation. Forecast targeting with a symmetric positive inflation target keeps the risk of the zero bound, liquidity traps and deflation small. Prudent central banks may want to prepare in advance contingency plans for situations when a series of bad shocks substantially increases the risk

Foreign Owners and Plant Survival

Abstract: In recent years, international capital flows of all types have increased dramatically and most governments have been actively encouraging inflows of direct investment. However, concerns remain that reliance on foreign multinationals may be a risky development strategy as foreign firms are likely to be less rooted in the local economy and may be quicker to close down production. This paper asks whether foreign owners are more likely to close plants than domestic owners. In Indonesia, plants with any foreign ownership are far less likely to close than wholly-owned domestic plants. However, the lower probability of shutdown is a result of the larger size of foreign plants rather than their nationality of ownership. Controlling for plant size and productivity, we find that foreign plants are significantly more likely to close than comparable domestic establishments.

Globalization and Capital Markets

Abstract: The ebb and flow of international capital since the nineteenth century illustrates recurring difficulties, as well as the alternative perspectives from which policymakers have tried to confront them. This paper is devoted to documenting these vicissitudes quantitatively and explaining them. Economic theory and economic history together can provide useful insights into events of the past and deliver relevant lessons for today. We argue that theories of how international capital mobility has evolved must be understood within the framework of the basic policy trilemma constraining an open economy's choice of monetary regime.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Religion and Economic Growth

Abstract: Empirical research on the determinants of economic growth has typically neglected the influence of religion. To fill this gap, we use international survey data on religiosity for a broad panel of countries to investigate the effects of church attendance and religious beliefs on economic growth. To isolate the direction of causation from religiosity to economic performance, we use instrumental variables suggested by our analysis of systems in which church attendance and beliefs are the dependent variables. The instruments are dummy variables for the presence of state religion and for regulation of the religion market, an indicator of religious pluralism, and the composition of religions. We find that economic growth responds positively to the extent of religious beliefs, notably those in hell and heaven, but negatively to church attendance. That is, growth depends on the extent of believing relative to belonging. These results accord with a perspective in which religious beliefs influence individual traits that enhance economic performance. The beliefs are, in turn, the principal output of the religion sector, and church attendance measures the inputs to this sector. Hence, for given beliefs, more church attendance signifies more resources used up by the religion sector.

Does Inflation Targeting Matter

Abstract: This paper asks whether inflation targeting improves economic performance, as measured by the behavior of inflation, output, and interest rates. We compare seven OECD countries that adopted inflation targeting in the early 1990s to thirteen that did not. After the early 90s, performance improved along many dimensions for both the targeting countries and the non-targeters. In some cases the targeters improved by more; for example, average inflation fell by a larger amount. However, these differences are explained by the facts that targeters performed worse than non-targeters before the early 90s, and there is regression to the mean. Once one controls for regression to the mean, there is no evidence that inflation targeting improves performance.

Do and Should Financial Aid Packages Affect Students' College Choices?

Abstract: Every year, thousands of high school seniors with high college aptitude face complicated menus' of scholarship and aid packages designed to affect their college choices. Using an original survey designed for this paper, we investigate whether students respond to their menus' like rational human capital investors. Whether they make the investments efficiently is important not only because they are the equivalent of the Fortune 500' for human capital, but also because they are likely to be the most analytic and long-sighted student investors. We find that the typical high aptitude student chooses his college and responds to aid in a manner that is broadly consistent with rational investment. However, we also find some serious anomalies: excessive response to loans and work-study, strong response to superficial aspects of a grant (such as whether it has a name), and response to a grant's share of college costs rather than its amount. Approximately 30 percent of high aptitude students respond to aid in a way that apparently reduces their lifetime present value. While both a lack of sophistication/information and credit constraints can explain the behavior of this 30 percent of students, the weight of the evidence favors a lack of sophistication.

Resident and Nonresident Tuition and Enrollment at Flagship State Universities

Abstract: We address the determinants of resident and nonresident tuition and enrollment at public universities. A key explanatory variable is the share of out-of-state students enrolled under reciprocity agreements. We find that public universities use out-of-state enrollments primarily to augment student quality, not to make up for losses in state appropriations.In the main out-of-state enrollment levels are relatively insensitive to out-of-state tuition levels charged by institutions. Finally, we find no evidence that public universities increase their in-state or out-of-state tuition levels in response to increased federal or state financial aid for students.

Institutions, Capital Constraints and Entrepreneurial Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Europe

Abstract: We explore the impact of the institutional environment on the nature of entrepreneurial activity across Europe. Political, legal, and regulatory variables that have been shown to impact capital market development influence entrepreneurial activity in the emerging markets of Europe, but not in the more mature economies of Europe. Greater fairness and greater protection of property rights increase entry rates, reduce exit rates, and lower average firm size. Additionally, these same factors also associated with increased industrial vintage a size-weighted measure of age and reduced skewness in firm-size distributions. The results suggest that capital constraints induced by these institutional factors impact both entry and the ability of firms to transition and grow, particularly in lesser-developed markets.

Hamas, Taliban and the Jewish Underground: An Economist's View of Radical Religious Militias

Abstract: Can rational choice modeling explain destructive behavior among the Taliban, Hama and other radical religious militias? This paper proposes a club good framework which emphasizes the function of voluntary religious organizations as efficient providers of local public goods in the absence of government provision. The sacrifices which these groups demand are economically efficient (as in Iannaccone (1992)) and make them well suited for solving the extreme principal-agent problems present in militia production. Thus the analysis can explain why religious radicals create such effective militias. Seemingly gratuitous acts of violence by group members destroy their outside options, increasing the incentive compatibility of loyalty. The analysis has clear implications for economic policy to contain militias.

How "Original Sin" was Overcome: The Evolution of External Debt Denominated in Domestic Currencies in the United States and the British Dominions

Abstract: This paper examines the historical origins of "Original Sin" or why countries are unable to issue long term debt domestically or borrow abroad in terms of the domestic currency. We conduct an historical case study for a group of countries that had largely overcome the problem of Original Sin by the third quarter of the twentieth century. The group consists of several former colonies of Great Britain: the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. We trace out their debt history relating the currency to the place of issue, exploring the residency of those holding local and foreign currency debt and looking at the maturity of domestic debt in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. We find that sound fiscal institutions, high credibility of the monetary regime and good financial development are not sufficient to completely break free from Original Sin. Conversely, poor performance in these policy realms is not, for the most part, a necessary condition for Original Sin. The factor we emphasize for the common movements across the five countries is the role of shocks such as wars, massive economic disruption and the emergence of global markets. The differences in evolution between the U.S. and the Dominions we attribute to differences in size, the traits of a key currency, which the U.S. possessed and the others did not, and to membership in the British Empire. The important role of major shocks suggests that the establishment of a bond market involved significant start-up costs, while the role of scale suggests that network externalities and liquidity were pivotal in the existence of overseas markets in domestic currency debt.

Job loss in the united states, 1981–2001

Abstract: I examine changes in the incidence and consequences of job loss between 1981 and 2001 using data from the Displaced Workers Surveys (DWS) from 1984 to 2002. The overall rate of job loss has a strong counter-cyclical component, but the job-loss rate was higher than might have been expected during the mid-1990’s given the strong labor market during that period. While the job-loss rate of more-educated workers increased, less-educated workers continue to have the highest rates of job loss overall. Displaced workers have a substantially reduced probability of employment and an increased probability of part-time employment subsequent to job loss. The more educated have higher post-displacement employment rates and are more likely to be employed full-time. The probabilities of employment and full-time employment among those reemployed subsequent to job loss increased substantially in the late 1990s, suggesting that the strong labor market eased the transition of displaced workers. Reemployment rates dropped sharply in the recession of 2001. Those re-employed, even full-time and regardless of education level, suffer significant earnings declines relative to what they earned before they were displaced. Additionally, foregone earnings growth (the growth in earnings that would have occurred had the workers not been displaced), is an important part of the cost of job loss for re-employed full-time job losers. There is no evidence of a decline during the tight labor market of the 1990s in the earnings loss of displaced workers who were reemployed full-time. In fact, earnings losses of displaced workers have been increasing since the mid 1990s.

Measuring the Impact of Minimum Wages: Evidence from Latin America

Abstract: This paper first provides an overview of the levels of minimum wages in Latin America and their true impact on the distribution of wages using both numerical measures and kernel density plots. It identifies numeraire' effects higher in the wage distribution and lighthouse' or reference effects in the unregulated or informal' sector. The final section then employs panel employment data from Colombia, a country where minimum wages seem high and very binding, to quantify the effects of an increase on wages and employment. The evidence suggests that in the Latin American context, the minimum wage has impacts beyond those usually contemplated in the advanced country literature.

Do shareholders of acquiring firms gain from acquisitions

Abstract: We examine a sample of 12,023 acquisitions by public firms from 1980 to 2001. Shareholders of these firms lost a total of $218 billion when acquisitions were announced. Though shareholders lose throughout our sample period, losses associated with acquisition announcements after 1997 are dramatic. Small firms gain from acquisitions, so that shareholders of small firms gained $8 billion when acquisitions were announced and shareholders of large firms lost $226 billion. We examine the cross-sectional variation in the announcement returns of acquisitions. Small firm shareholders earn systematically more when acquisitions are announced. This size effect is typically more important than how an acquisition is financed and than the organizational form of the assets acquired. The only acquisitions that have positive aggregate gains are acquisitions of subsidiaries.

Does Human Capital Transfer from Parent to Child? The Intergenerational Effects of Compulsory Schooling

Abstract: The strong correlation between parents' economic status and that of their children has been well-documented, but little is known about the extent to which this is a causal phenomenon. This paper attempts to improve our understanding of the causal processes that contribute to intergenerational immobility by exploiting historical changes in compulsory schooling laws that affected the educational attainment of parents without affecting their innate abilities or endowments. We examine the influence of parental compulsory schooling on grade retention status for children aged 7 to 15 using the 1960, 1970 and 1980 U.S. Censuses. Our estimates indicate that a one-year increase in the education of either parent reduces the probability that a child repeats a grade by between two and seven percentage points. Among 15 to 16 year olds living at home, we also estimate that parental compulsory schooling significantly lowers the likelihood of dropping out. These findings suggest that education policies may be able to reduce part of the intergenerational transmission of inequality.

Historical Perspectives on Financial Development and Economic Growth

Abstract: This paper uses standard tools of empirical macro economics to examine how well the existing historical time series support a role for financial factors in real sector activity in four economies that experienced what are widely considered to be 'financial revolutions' over the past 400 years. The evidence presented for the Dutch Republic (1600-1794), England (1700-1850), the United States (1790-1850), and Japan (1880-1913) suggests that the emergence of financial instruments, institutions, and markets played a central role in promoting trade, commerce, and industrialization. Cross- section regressions with a wider set of countries for the post-1850 period offer additional support for the Schumpeterian view of finance in growth. Though limitations of the available data argue for a cautious interpretation, the findings are consistent with the traditional and more descriptive analyses of these events in the economic history literature, and with results obtained for the post-1960 period by modern macro economists.

Sprawl and urban growth

Abstract: Cities can be thought of as the absence of physical space between people and firms As such, they exist to eliminate transportation costs for goods, people and ideas and transportation technologies dictate urban form In the 21st century, the dominant form of city living is based on the automobile and this form is sometimes called sprawl In this essay, we document that sprawl is ubiquitous and that it is continuing to expand Using a variety of evidence, we argue that sprawl is not the result of explicit government policies or bad urban planning, but rather the inexorable product of car-based living Sprawl has been associated with significant improvements in quality of living, and the environmental impacts of sprawl have been offset by technological change Finally, we suggest that the primary social problem associated with sprawl is the fact that some people are left behind because they do not earn enough to afford the cars that this form of living requires

Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?

Abstract: There is still disagreement among economists concerning how a country's international economic policies and its rate of economic growth interact, despite a number of multi-country case studies utilizing comparable analytical frameworks, numerous econometric studies using large cross-country data sets, and important theoretical advances in growth theory. This paper briefly surveys this literature and points out the main reasons for the disagreements. Particular attention is given to an important study by Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (2001) criticizing the conclusion of a number of recent multi-country statistical studies that openness is associated with higher growth rates. Rodriguez and Rodrik show that openness simply in the sense of liberal trade policies seems to be no guarantee of faster growth. However, the conclusion of most researchers involved in either country studies or multi-country statistical tests that lower trade barriers in combination with a stable and non-discriminatory exchange-rate system, prudent monetary and fiscal policies and corruption-free administration of economic policies promote economic growth still seems to remain valid.

Human Capital Externalities in Cities

Abstract: What is the effect of an increase in the overall level of human capital on the economy of a city? Although much is known about the private return to education, much less is known about the more important question of what happens to productivity, wages and land prices when the aggregate stock of human capital in a city increases Increases in the aggregate stock of human capital can benefit society in ways that are not fully reflected in the private return of education Human capital spillovers can in theory increase aggregate productivity over and above the direct effect of human capital on individual productivity Furthermore, increases in education can reduce criminal participation and improve voters' political behavior In this paper, I review what we know about social returns to education, with a particular emphasis on those externalities that accrue to local geographic areas The focus of the paper is on the empirical issues that arise in identifying these externalities and on the existing empirical evidence on their magnitude This paper was prepared as a chapter for the forthcoming Handbook of Urban and Regional Economics

Optimal Interest-Rate Rules: II. Applications

Abstract: In this paper we calculate robustly optimal monetary policy rules for several variants of a simple optimizing model of the monetary transmission mechanism with sticky prices and/or wages We discuss representations of optimal policy both in terms of interest-rate feedback rules that generalize the well-known Taylor rule,' and in terms of commitment to a target criterion of the kind discussed in familiar proposals for flexible inflation targeting' Optimal rules, however, require that policy be history-dependent in ways not contemplated by many well-known proposals We furthermore find that a robustly optimal policy rule is almost inevitably an implicit rule, that requires the central bank to use a structural model to project the economy's evolution under the contemplated policy action Finally, our numerical examples suggest that optimal rules do not place nearly as much weight on projections of inflation or output many quarters in the future as occurs under the current practice of inflation-forecast targeting central banks