Ocean Science 

About: Ocean Science is an academic journal published by Copernicus Publications. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Geology & Sea surface temperature. It has an ISSN identifier of 1812-0784. It is also open access. Over the lifetime, 1208 publications have been published receiving 32794 citations. The journal is also known as: OS (Göttingen. Print) & OS (Göttingen. Internet).

El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study

Abstract: . In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST) damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Nino-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about the future relative strength of El Nino and La Nina events. Based on this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little influence of global warming on ENSO.

DUACS DT2014: the new multi-mission altimeter data set reprocessed over 20years

Abstract: . The new DUACS DT2014 reprocessed products have been available since April 2014. Numerous innovative changes have been introduced at each step of an extensively revised data processing protocol. The use of a new 20-year altimeter reference period in place of the previous 7-year reference significantly changes the sea level anomaly (SLA) patterns and thus has a strong user impact. The use of up-to-date altimeter standards and geophysical corrections, reduced smoothing of the along-track data, and refined mapping parameters, including spatial and temporal correlation-scale refinement and measurement errors, all contribute to an improved high-quality DT2014 SLA data set. Although all of the DUACS products have been upgraded, this paper focuses on the enhancements to the gridded SLA products over the global ocean. As part of this exercise, 21 years of data have been homogenized, allowing us to retrieve accurate large-scale climate signals such as global and regional MSL trends, interannual signals, and better refined mesoscale features. An extensive assessment exercise has been carried out on this data set, which allows us to establish a consolidated error budget. The errors at mesoscale are about 1.4 cm2 in low-variability areas, increase to an average of 8.9 cm2 in coastal regions, and reach nearly 32.5 cm2 in high mesoscale activity areas. The DT2014 products, compared to the previous DT2010 version, retain signals for wavelengths lower than ∼ 250 km, inducing SLA variance and mean EKE increases of, respectively, +5.1 and +15 %. Comparisons with independent measurements highlight the improved mesoscale representation within this new data set. The error reduction at the mesoscale reaches nearly 10 % of the error observed with DT2010. DT2014 also presents an improved coastal signal with a nearly 2 to 4 % mean error reduction. High-latitude areas are also more accurately represented in DT2014, with an improved consistency between spatial coverage and sea ice edge position. An error budget is used to highlight the limitations of the new gridded products, with notable errors in areas with strong internal tides.

Formulation of an ocean model for global climate simulations

Abstract: . This paper summarizes the formulation of the ocean component to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) climate model used for the 4th IPCC Assessment (AR4) of global climate change. In particular, it reviews the numerical schemes and physical parameterizations that make up an ocean climate model and how these schemes are pieced together for use in a state-of-the-art climate model. Features of the model described here include the following: (1) tripolar grid to resolve the Arctic Ocean without polar filtering, (2) partial bottom step representation of topography to better represent topographically influenced advective and wave processes, (3) more accurate equation of state, (4) three-dimensional flux limited tracer advection to reduce overshoots and undershoots, (5) incorporation of regional climatological variability in shortwave penetration, (6) neutral physics parameterization for representation of the pathways of tracer transport, (7) staggered time stepping for tracer conservation and numerical efficiency, (8) anisotropic horizontal viscosities for representation of equatorial currents, (9) parameterization of exchange with marginal seas, (10) incorporation of a free surface that accomodates a dynamic ice model and wave propagation, (11) transport of water across the ocean free surface to eliminate unphysical ``virtual tracer flux" methods, (12) parameterization of tidal mixing on continental shelves. We also present preliminary analyses of two particularly important sensitivities isolated during the development process, namely the details of how parameterized subgridscale eddies transport momentum and tracers.

Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012

Abstract: The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26 N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are mon- itored by combining a transatlantic array of moored in- struments with submarine-cable-based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April 2008 to March 2012, the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv (1 Sv = 10 6 m 3 s 1 ) weaker than in the first four years of observation (95 % confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the southward flow above the thermocline. The increased south- ward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of lower North Atlantic deep water below 3000 m. The transport of lower North Atlantic deep water slowed by 7 % per year (95 % confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5 % per year).

TOPAZ4: an ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and Arctic

Abstract: . We present a detailed description of TOPAZ4, the latest version of TOPAZ – a coupled ocean-sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic Ocean and Arctic. It is the only operational, large-scale ocean data assimilation system that uses the ensemble Kalman filter. This means that TOPAZ features a time-evolving, state-dependent estimate of the state error covariance. Based on results from the pilot MyOcean reanalysis for 2003–2008, we demonstrate that TOPAZ4 produces a realistic estimate of the ocean circulation in the North Atlantic and the sea-ice variability in the Arctic. We find that the ensemble spread for temperature and sea-level remains fairly constant throughout the reanalysis demonstrating that the data assimilation system is robust to ensemble collapse. Moreover, the ensemble spread for ice concentration is well correlated with the actual errors. This indicates that the ensemble statistics provide reliable state-dependent error estimates – a feature that is unique to ensemble-based data assimilation systems. We demonstrate that the quality of the reanalysis changes when different sea surface temperature products are assimilated, or when in-situ profiles below the ice in the Arctic Ocean are assimilated. We find that data assimilation improves the match to independent observations compared to a free model. Improvements are particularly noticeable for ice thickness, salinity in the Arctic, and temperature in the Fram Strait, but not for transport estimates or underwater temperature. At the same time, the pilot reanalysis has revealed several flaws in the system that have degraded its performance. Finally, we show that a simple bias estimation scheme can effectively detect the seasonal or constant bias in temperature and sea-level.