Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 1979"

Lessons from the past: policy implications of historical fertility studies.

Abstract: Drawing on data compiled during the Princeton European Fertility Project the authors find that "the historical record suggests the relative lack of importance of income and prices in determining the demand for children prior to or during early stages of the fertility decline [in Europe during the last century]." They assert that some early features of the European transition from high to low fertility "can only be explained by a change in tastes or a decline in the cost of fertility regulation or some combination of the two." Among the features of Europes demographic transition that the authors note are "the variety of social economic and demographic conditions under which the decline of fertility occurred; its remarkable concentration over time; the apparent coincidence of the decline with the sudden adoption of family limitation practices; the rapid generalization of such practices once they appeared; the resultant drastic change of reproductive regimes; and finally the importance of cultural factors among those that appeared to influence the onset and the spread of the fertility decline." An innovation-diffusion dimension to the change in reproductive patterns is observed and implications for family planning programs in developing countries are considered. (EXCERPT)

Class patriarchy and womens work in Bangladesh.

Abstract: 1976-1978 data from a rural district in Bangladesh are used to analyze the status of women in that country. The functioning social system of the country is a patriarchy which allows men to dominate women in all aspects of life. In the rural areas patriarchy combines with the economic class system to produce a rigid division of labor along sex lines a segregated labor market and a stratified system which places women at risk of abrupt declines in status. Kinship political and religious factors combine to subordinate women. The economic status of women is totally dependent on their husbands; when they lose their husbands they also lose their status. The patriarchal system seems to be in disequilibrium today in that normative male obligations towards women are being ignored while the system still imposes the female obligations within the system. An analysis of time spent at labor shows that men generally work outside the home while women work near the home. The nature of womens work is detailed. This sexual classification holds true across class lines. Different work patterns hours worked and authority relations are characteristic of each state in a womans life. Hierarachy between women is based on age young women being subservient to older women. Child care is only time intensive for women in the 1st years of the childs life. High fertility is a means for women to guarantee some sort of economic security for themselves.

Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Demographic Reappraisal

Abstract: In view of the importance being attached to population distribution issues particularly to urban growth it is useful to examine carefully the demographic processes that are currently responsible for and associated with such growth. The rate of change in the proportion urban in developing countries is not exceptionally rapid by historical standards; rather it is the growth rates of urban populations that represent an unprecedented phenomenon. Among the factors that influence the growth rate of individual cities national rates of population growth stand out as dominant in intercity comparisons. Urban growth has been fastest other things being equal where economic levels and economic growth rates are highest; changes in proportion urban among developing regions are not outpacing historical standards; relations between urban and industrial populations do not seem to have deteriorated in the postwar period; and urban growth is partly self-limiting since growth rates of cities decline as their size increases and as urban populations grow. However there is no cause for complacency in these findings both because the population shifts accompanying urbanization are being superimposed upon what remain very rapid rates of national increase and because the aggregate measures used in the analysis preclude consideration of a wealth of economic social and institutional factors that influence and are influenced by this phenomennon. If a recession in rates of urban growth ranks high on the list of development objectives then it seems important to recognize the central role of natural increase in current levels of an variations in urban growth rates.

Political will and family planning: the implications of Indias emergency experience.

Abstract: The application of political will to family planning in India produced all the critics of the governments earlier family planning efforts had expected of it plus a great deal that had not been anticipated. By the time the intensive family planning drive came to an end in 1976 although a 50% increase had been achieved in the proportion of Indian couples estimated to be protected by modern contraception millions had suffered harrassment at the hands of government officials bent on implementing it; many had died from it; the political leaders who had willed it were out of power and in disrepute; and the program itself collapsed. Finally the unanticipated costs came to outweigh the benefits that had been expected and the program could not survive. The family planning turmoil from which this emerged occupied the latter half of the 19-month period of emergency rule that lasted from late June 1975 until mid-January 1976. An integrated approach had been taken in which family planning became an integral if not dominant component of the program of all government departments rather than the primary responsibility of the health and medical authorities. The techniques used were the intensive "crash" program approach; surgical sterilization as an easily administered contraceptive method; the use of targets as an important means of controlling fieldworker performance; the assignment of principal field-level responsibility to the generalist administrative cadre; the payment of monetary incentives to sterilization acceptors; the use of sanctions; plus resort in some cases to compulsive sterilization. In the end family planning became the dominant virtually exclusive theme of the governments development efforts and the intermediate objective of increased family planning acceptance was pursued as if it were all that mattered.

Energy use and social structure in a Bangladesh village

Abstract: This paper examines energy availability and patterns of energy use in the context of a single village in rural Bangladesh. From a quantification of the average daily flows of energy use by the study population in the village, the analysis proceeds to an examination of patterns of land ownership and of the relations governing transactions between members of different classes in land, labor, and crop residues. The final section assesses the likely effects of energy and rural development projects on different classes in the village. (PSB)

Literacy education and fertility past and present: a critical review

Abstract: In this article I wish to reexamine the proposed relationships between education and literacy and fertility behavior and goals. I discuss both contemporary studies and those few historical attempts to specify and explain the nature of the relationship and the role of literacy and education in changing patterns of fertility. In so doing I offer a critical commentary on these studies and their results specifically seeking to elaborate how education is conceptualized as an independent variable. I contend that the common ways or the paradigmatic manner in which education is viewed accounts largely for the role it typically is found to play. In this way critical questions about the analysis of fertility data are raised and critical perspectives on the role of literacy and education discussed. Through such a prism the results of different studies will be reviewed and an attempt made both to reexamine the relationships found commonly and to inquire into the important differences in patterns of results. We begin with a review of the "received wisdom" the rather general consensus on education or literacy in fertility studies and its qualities. (excerpt)

Will US fertility remain low? a new economic interpretation.

Abstract: A method for partitioning the total fertility rate in the United States into 2 period components is developed. 1 component reflects fertility timing the other measures the average completed fertility of women currently in their childbearing years. Estimates of fertility expectations derived from an economic model are reported. The measures of fertility timing and the estimates of fertility expectations are used to analyze the timing component of the total fertility rate from 1920 to 1975. By comparing estimates of fertility expectations with published data on lifetime births expected the extent to which these very different processes generate measures of the same thing can be evaluated. The evidence suggests that virtually all of the baby bust has been reflected in a corresponding bust in expected completed fertility. Expected completed fertility did level off between 1972 and 1975 and probably has remained level since but the resulting gap between expected completed fertility and the total fertility rate is dwarfed by the 20-year fertility decline. The theoretical model suggested implies the following: 1) annual movements in period fertility rates will continue to be dominated by timing considerations; 2) these movements will be countercyclical as couples seek to compress their births into relatively low-cost periods when the economy is sluggish; 3) periods of rising (falling) wages and job opportunities for women will induce declining (increasing) fertility expectations; and 4) continued secular expansion of the economy and of womens wages (if it occurs) will induce continued secular declines in period fertility rates until a positive asymptote is reached following which period fertility rates will continue to fluctuate countercyclincally.

On the end of the population explosion.

Abstract: Population projections have proliferated in the last decade or 2 yet the publics fascination with population projections and the policymakers demand for them continues unabated. Recent contributors to forecasting population are Donald J. Bogue and Amy Ong Tsui. Their findings the nature of the supporting arguments and their policy conclusions single their work out for more than routine attention. Their results vary markedly with results derived from the prevailing conventional wisdom as to the expected course of growth rates fertility rates and resulting population totals for the remainder of the 20th century particularly for the developing world. Theirs is a more optimistic vision of the future. Bogue and Tsui offer a forceful interpretation of the causal mechanism underlying the fertility declines they anticipate. They claim that their analysis "leads to the prediction that the future course of world fertility may be determined in large part by the size quality and spread of the family planning campaign." Finally on the basis of their interpretation Bogue and Tsui spell out policy conclusions that seem to provide a clearcut guide for action. Focus in this discussion is on examining Bogue and Tsuis forecasts of demographic trends their interpretation of the causes of these trends and the policy implications they derive. Additionally they deserve special attention because their writing exemplifies some problems in methods and interpretations. Review of their most optimistic current world population forecasts shows that the expectation of a generalized and precipitous fertility decline in the developing world during the remainder of the 20th century continues unsubstantiated as is their claim that family planning programs offer a ready tool for precipitating and continuing such a decline.

Rural electrification and fertility change in the Southern Philippines.

Abstract: In 1971 a large-scale electrification project was implemented in a rural area in the southern Philippines. Approximately 1 year later the area experienced a rapid decline in marital fertility which lowered the birth rate from 46-30 within 4 years. The influence that the provision of electricity (in the presence of other developmental efforts and of the availability of modern family planning services) had on generating fertility-reducing social and economic change is explored. Following a detailed description of the area (the Misamis Oriental Province) including social and economic characteristics and recent change the fertility trends and family planning behavior of residents are discussed. Electricity is seen to have a community-level impact on the nonagricultural and agricultural economy on health and environmental sanitation and on education and social activities as well as a household-level impact by changing income patterns of female employment savings and investments and perceived costs and benefits of children. The influences of rural development combined with the availability of fertility control measures has changed contraceptive behavior and thus led to a lowered birth rate.

Lifetime migration in Colombia: tests of the expected income hypothesis.

Abstract: The economic model of migration is applied to the developing country of Colombia. To model the determinants of migration flows in Colombia from an economic perspective the expected income hypothesis is the starting point - a migrant who is a member of the labor force considers not only the income to be earned in a given area but the probability of obtaining employment in that area and the higher the income or the probability of employment in an area the more migration to that area other things being equal. Published data from the 1973 Population Census were used to test whether the rates of lifetime migration into Colombias 23 departments are associated with those areas labor market conditions. Male and female population movements were considered separately and together. For both sexes the results sustain the empirical validity of the economic model of migration in the Colombian context. The 5 specific hypotheses that were confirmed by the available statistical data are: 1) women in Colombia migrate at higher rates than men; 2) women are more responsive than men to economic opportunities associated with migration for sociological reasons; the economic incentives are greater for men; 3) high income areas have higher immigration rates than low income areas; 4) areas with fuller and more stable employment have higher rates of immigration than do other areas; and 5) areas where the employment composition is relatively favorable have higher immigration than areas with poorer job mixes. On the basis of confirmation of the economic model of migration and the expected income hypothesis in Colombia it is warranted to conclude that this is another instance of the Colombian people shifting their economic energies to activities with higher private returns.

Time Costs of Child Rearing in the Rural Philippines

Abstract: The economic theory of fertility holds that families weigh the costs as they consider additional children Using 1975 data from a rural area in the Philippines a study was conducted to ascertain the time budgets of women in a high-fertility rural society as the size and composition of their families changed The number of children seems to affect the mothers activities but it is the age composition of the family which is the major demographic determinant of the mothers use of time Only during the 1st year of life does a child detract significantly from the mothers market production time As the child gets older some time is released from child care and invested into market production The cost of a birth to the mother in leisure time continues during the preschool years The presence of older children reduces the time spent by the mother on child care In fact as the family size increases child care costs on the mothers time decrease for each additional child Mothers who were employed away from home were found to spend less time on child care than either mothers who did not work or mothers whose market activities were conducted at or near home These findings show why fertility rates remain high in rural areas The economic costs of child care are low especially when informal types of employment predominate The generation of employment opportunities outside the home for women might be expected to result in lower fertility

Slowing metropolitan city growth in Asia : policies, programs and results

Abstract: Population distribution patterns are a cause for concern in the larger developing nations of Asia and policies which seek to modify these patterns particularly the unprecedented rapid growth of metropolitan areas are in effect. Urban growth had been unintentionally fostered by 1) an expanding labor force; 2) the investment of international capital in industry located in large cities; 3) expanding governmental bureaucracies and service institutions in large cities; and 4) restricted investment in and increased mechanism of agriculture. The policies which emerged in each nation to deal with this growth arose from the general situation of urban congestion and rural poverty and from the historical and political context of the particular nation. The objectives of these policies may be to 1) reverse population flow to rural areas; 2) close cities to new migration; 3) resettle migrants in frontiers; or 4) redirect migrants to nonmetropolitan cities. Each of these approaches is reviewed and examples of the success and failure of its application are given. Because each policy has obvious limitations it is suggested that the best strategy would entail a combination of policies and that even this will only slow the growth of metropolitan areas. This growth should be accomodated therefore by efforts to improve housing social services employment and income conditions. The availability of investment capital and the strength of the national administration may ultimately dictate the success of any such endeavor.

The changing position of Indian women

Abstract: tion and a corresponding change in the husband-wife relationship. More recently, urban migration, female political participation, education, careers, and the activities of social reformers have all helped the public acceptance of new roles for women. As yet, only a tiny minority of women have benefited from the changes that have occurred. I Anthropologists have long been interested in the study of the position of women in various parts of the world. Such interest has been both 'indirect' and 'direct'I am aware that this distinction is not a clear-cut one but I think that it is helpful to make it. The 'indirect' interest came from armchair anthropologists who wanted to trace the evolution of marriage, family, and kinship by studying kinship terms and usages, from different countries, and in particular, from what are now referred to as the 'Third World' countries. As is well-known, this began in the latter half of the nineteenth century with the efforts of Morgan, McLennan, Maine and Bachofen. The 'direct' interest came from individuals whose work as administrators, missionaries or anthropologists, brought them into contact with non-Western peoples, and who wrote accounts of the division of labour existing between the sexes, the rules of inheritance and succession, the nature and composition of the household etc., among the peoples they studied. Ever since their discipline became established in the universities, anthropologists have regarded the study of the 'position of women' as one of their basic concerns. R. H. Lowie's Primitive society, published in I920-which, incidentally, was the first anthropological book I came into contact with-included a chapter on 'The position of women' (I86-204) which is still worth reading for its erudition, caution, scepticism about accepted ideas, and for certain basic distinctions which Lowie considered essential in order to discuss tangibly so broad and elusive, if not fuzzy, a theme. He made a few generalisations and then cited exceptions to them to show how it is necessary to guard against easy generalisation. Finally, he emphasised the difficulty of establishing causality when the events under consideration were numerous, and the relationship between them extremely complex. When I state that anthropologists have long been interested in the study of the position of women I certainly do not mean that it has been confined to them. For it is well-known that psychologists, demographers and several others have shared * Huxley Memorial Lecture, 1976.

Technologies for Basic Needs.

Abstract: This book - inspired by the ILO World Employment Conference in 1976 - suggests new criteria for establishing socially oriented technology policies in the developing countries and demonstrates how technology can be directly related to the fundamental objective of satisfying basic human needs. In this new edition account is taken of the deliberations of the 1979 United Nations Conference on Science and Technology for Development, and the list of institutions dealing with appropriate technology has been updated.

Government efforts to influence fertility: the ethical issues.

Abstract: In the past twenty years or so “the population problem” has been added to the world’s agenda not simply as the subject of scientific study and public discussion but also impinging on policy intervention. In the international arena, the United Nations has held meetings, including the first intergovernmental World Population Conference at Bucharest in 1974, passed resolutions, sponsored programmatic efforts, and established a special organization to concentrate on the issue (the United Nations Fund for Population Activities). National governments, both developed and developing, have set up various commissions on the subject and beyond that have adopted policies and organized programs to influence demographic trends. Private foundations, universities, and voluntary organizations have devoted substantial resources to research, training, technical assistance, service, and information distribution. In short, there has been, one might say, a minor revolution in the field—spotty in space and time, trendy in its ups and downs, filled with visions, revisions, and fashions, controversial as to both ends and means, but still maintaining a dynamic vitality of its own.1