Showing papers in "Population and Development Review in 1983"

On kinship structure, female autonomy, and demographic behavior in India.

Abstract: The main states of India are broadly grouped into 2 demographic regimes. In contrast to states in the north southern states are characterized by lower marital fertility later age at marriage lower infant and child mortality and comparatively low ratios of female to male infant and child mortality. The division between the 2 regimes broadly coincides with the division areas of northern kinship/low female autonomy and southern kinship/high female autonomy. The analysis suggests that family social status is probably the most important element in comprehending Indias demographic situation. Women in the south tend to be more active in the labor force are more likely to take innovative action in adopting fertility control and are more apt to utilize health services for themselves and their children. Changes in India are also compared to those other South Asian countries. (authors modified) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

A Century of Demographic and Cultural Change in Western Europe: An Exploration of Underlying Dimensions

Abstract: A fertility decline is in essence part of a broader emancipation process. More specifically, the demographic regulatory mechanisms, upheld by the accompanying communal or family authority and exchange patterns, give way to the principle of individual freedom of choice, thereby allowing an extension of the domain of economic rationality to the phenomenon of reproduction. In an earlier article, drawing on the record of Western Europe, I examined social control and the regime of natural fertility. I The first aim of this article is to follow through the evolution of reproduction and changes in family life, drawing on later stages of that same record. The purpose of this exercise is to explore the extent to which current changes in fertility and nuptiality in the region can be viewed as manifestations of a cultural dimension that had already emerged at the time of demographic transition in Europe. Much of the empirical evidence presented here pertains to this issue. The second aim of the article is to place the findings in a broad theoretical framework. Although we shall stress an important sociological component and its historical development, one should not consider the'evidence as incompatible with other subtheories that follow, for instance, the microeconomic approach. In fact, microeconomic analysts will probably find it comforting to see the extension of the domain of economic rationality and of the principle of individual choice traced historically and documented statistically. But, equally central to the philosophy of this article is the argument that the various ways in which persons engage in the calculation of relative advantage reveal more than the algebraic capacities of individuals and their level of perception of opportunities and constraints. More specifically, if persons engage in an evaluation of utilities and disutilities, they operate on the basis of a preference map, and if such a preference structure exists, there must also be a meaninggiving or ideational system that directs it. There is no reason to believe that

Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants.

Abstract: Fertility, Biology, and Behavior: An Analysis of the Proximate Determinants presents the proximate determinants of natural fertility. This book discusses the biological and behavioral dimensions of human fertility that are linked to intermediate fertility variables. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic variables influence fertility. This text then examines the absolute and relative age-specific marital fertility rates of selected populations. Other chapters consider the trends in total fertility rates of selected countries, including Colombia, Kenya, Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, France, and United States. This book discusses as well the effects of deliberate marital fertility control through contraception and induced abortion. The final chapter deals with the management of sex composition and implications for birth spacing. This book is a valuable resource for reproductive physiologists, social scientists, demographers, statisticians, biologists, and graduate students with an interest in the biological and behavioral control of human fertility.

Fertility as an Adjustment to Risk

Abstract: A curious myopia characterizes recent research on the value of children and its relation to fertility levels and trends in rural areas of developing countries By this I mean that disproportionate theoretical and empirical attention is devoted to the costs and benefits of children to parents while the children are young The underlying presumption is that positive discount rates pertain (giving greater weight to near-term costs and benefits than to more distant streams) Attention is directed to the time and commodity costs of child care and the labor contributions of young children to their parents' household Change in these parameters dominates scholarly perceptions of change in the demand for children over the course of economic development This myopia is evident in the recent National Academy of Sciences report on the determinants of fertility in developing countries ' Consider, for example, the following passage from the summary chapter on demand for children by Lee and Bulatao:

Infertility in sub-Saharan Africa: estimates and implications.

Abstract: Anticipated future increases in the rates of growth of African populations would be heightened by declines in the levels of infertility. Infertility accounts for 60 percent of variation in total fertility and is associated with a loss of one child per woman on average in 18 sub-Saharan countries with relevant data. The single major cause of infertility in these countries in all probability is gonorrhea through tubal infection and occlusion in women. Failure to address the problem of infertility in the near term can ultimately delay Africas fertility transition because uncertainty in childbearing inhibits response to intrinsic and extrinsic pressures to reduce fertility goals. (authors)

Demography as social science and policy science

Abstract: Demography as an activity has historically contained ele- ments both of a social science and a policy science. From Malthus's day to the present, the study of population dynamics has attracted those wishing to understand and those wishing to influence. These two activities are quite dif- ferent in nature. The demographer as social scientist seeks knowledge about conditions. His stance requires no commitment to change. He is interested in "what is" and strives to apprehend reality. The demographer as policy scientist seeks to alter current conditions in a specific direction. His stance is necessarily one committed to change. He is interested in "what can be" and strives to produce a desired state. Historically demography has passed through periods when one or the other of these motivating forces predominated among students of population. The shift in perspective from a social scientific orientation to a policy orientation and back again is a major leitmotif of the history of the field, one that has had a profound influence on the evolution of demographic thought. Since the dual nature of demography is unlikely to change, this influence can be expected to continue. For the past 30 years global population dynamics have attracted the attention of most demographers, and the majority have assumed a policy- oriented stance. The major controversy of the period—between the "devel- opmentalists" and the "family planners"—was an expression of conflicts attendant upon pursuing policy-oriented research within an academic discipline. To offer advice on how to produce beneficial social change without doing violence to "facts" as best they are known is a difficult and stressful task. With fertility decline now becoming a pronounced trend in the developing world, there will probably be a renewed emphasis on the social scientific perspective. The goal of demographers will increasingly become to "under- stand" what is happening rather than to "make" something happen. What will

Marriage, sex, and the first birth interval: the quiet revolution in Asia.

Abstract: The authors argue that under certain conditions changes in coital frequency do influence fertility. The evidence they present is indirect based on trends in early marital fertility in Korea Malaysia and Taiwan. They offer standard sociodemographic explanations for these trends including later age at marriage improved levels of nutrition and changes in breastfeeding and contraceptive practices and find them wanting for various reasons. The biometric literature is used to show that the effect of coital frequency on the increase in early marital conceptions is plausible; ethnographic illustrations suggest that the movement from the traditionally arranged to the romantically arranged marriage is largely responsible for greater coital frequency. They conclude that a very quiet sexual revolution has been occurring in Asia perhaps more far reaching and profound than the very vocal sexual revolution that has been occurring in the West. The increases in early marital conceptions have been 3 fold or more in some instances. From a broader perspective this paper argues that coital frequency an intermediate variable that has been virtually ignored by demographers can and does have an effect on the pace and level of fertility. The biometric evidence for this effect has been known for some time but heretofore actual behavioral examples have been lacking. The paper further emphasizes the multifaceted nature of the contemporary fertility transitions occurring in the developed world. Differences in coital frequency are very likely a component of differences in levels of natural fertility that have existed and thus not all of the changes taking place lead to lower levels of fertility. The modernizing forces leading to higher rates of coital frequency are in fact leading to higher fertility levels. The aspect of marriage having primary demographic importance is sexual activity--when sexual activity starts when it ends and coital frequency during a sexual union. (summaries in FRE SPA)

The Role of Population in Resource Depletion in Developing Countries

Abstract: Pressures on renewable resources in developing countries arising from population growth are often overshadowed or compounded by those arising from world market demands from inequalities in access to resources and from the breakdown of traditional systems of resource management. This theme is illustrated with a variety of data and a simulation model of resource management. (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

The social dimensions of development: social policy and planning in the Third World.

Abstract: This textbook provides basic information on social policies aimes at improving the welfare of the populations in developing countried and assessing the effectiveness of the major social policies which have been applied to the problems of poverty in these countried. The book is an outgrowth of experience gained in teaching a course in social policy and planning at London School of Economics. The focus is on social policied rather than on social planning techniques and the central theme is that state intervention and the implementation of social policies are a necessary prerequisite for improving the welfare of the inhabitants of 3rd World countried. The chapter defines underdevelopment. It stresses the need for governments to develop social policies in accordance with their needs and resources and to develop policies which will redistribute resources to the most seriously disadvantaged segments of their population. The 2nd chapter defines poverty describes the basic inequalities in living standards and income which exist in 3rd World countries and discuss the major theories which have been put forward to explain poverty. The next 5 chapters discuss the problems of population growth rural and urban development health and housing. The various policied which have been formulated to deal with each of these problems are described and compared in regard to their effectiveness. The next chapter discusses social work and the problems associated with the development of social welfare services in developing countries. The final chapter deals with international issues and assesses. The value of bilateral and multilateral aid. Major assumptions underlying the presentation of the material are 1)poverty impedes development 2)poverty will not disappear without government intervention 3)economic development by itself cannot reduce poverty 4)poverty is the result of social factors rather than the result of inadequacies on the part of poor indiciduals 5)socialpolicies and programs formulated to deal with problems in the developed countries are inappropriate for application in developing countries; 6)social policies must reflect the needs of each country; and 7)social planning should be an interdisciplinary endeavor and should utilize knowledge derived from all the social sciences.

Income and Other Factors Influencing Fertility in China

Abstract: China has achieved remarkable success in increasing life expectancy and reducing fertility. There is no question that much of this success is due to concerted government efforts. Low fertility is in part the outcome of government efforts to raise age at marriage, to provide free contraceptives and abortion, to use local birth quotas and peer pressure to discourage pregnancy, and, increasingl, to provide economic incentives and disincentives. The paper presents evidence, however, that government programs, although important, have not operated in a vacuum. It has data on rates of population increase for the 29 administrative regions of China and on income and other socioeconomic indicators for those regions. It also has data on yearly vital rates since 1972 by prefecture for one province, and income data and vital rate data (the latter for two seperate years) by county for another. These data allows the paper to considerations of several important questions regarding future population policy in China. The paper's principal concern is whether future economic growth and liberalization can be expected to reinforce government programs to reduce fertility, or whether these developments might weaken policies that have contributed to an already low level of fertility.

"The Soviet Union: Population Trends and Dilemmas."

Abstract: Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.

The political demography of Assams anti-immigrant movement

Abstract: The political implications of large-scale illegal migration from Bangladesh to Assam India are considered. The author notes that "the Assamese middle classes feared the loss of political control when the central government called for elections after there was a marked increase in the number of migrants on the electoral rolls while Assamese and tribal cultivators reacted against land encroachments. The ensuing violent conflict is the most recent in a series of confrontations between Assamese and a succession of migrant groups that have entered the state since the early part of the nineteenth century. The interrelationship of political and demographic factors in the governance of the state is emphasized." (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

Induced Abortion and Fertility: A Quarter Century of Experience in Eastern Europe

Abstract: The role of induced abortion in modifying fertility-particularly in Eastern Europe, but also in some other parts of the world-is believed to be powerful. Pointing to the relatively high incidence of induced abortion in Eastern European countries, some observers even consider induced abortion to be the main factor regulating fertility in that region. ' Is this belief based on correct analysis? The long-term effect of induced abortion both in absolute terms and relative to other factors inhibiting fertility has not been assessed in any country or region. The importance of such analyses is attested to by the fact that, irrespective of its legal status, induced abortion is practiced in almost every country around the globe.2 Moreover, when and where abortion legislation is restrictive,3 illegal abortions are often performed under conditions that result in serious health impairment to women. In some developing countries, treatment for medical complications resulting from illegal abortions is a major drain on health resources.4 This analysis of the role of induced abortion as a factor modifying fertility is based on the experience of countries of Eastern Europe.5 These countries over the past quarter century have enacted legislative measures that reflect a wide range of public attitudes concerning abortion and also possess reasonably reliable data that make it possible to explore fertility-related aspects of the incidence and legality of induced abortion. A systematic analysis of this experience can shed light not only on an important issue in the demography of Eastern Europe but also on the demographic consequences of abortion and abortion legislation more broadly. In the first section, after reviewing the history of abortion legislation in the region and summarizing salient trends in the incidence of induced abortion, an attempt is made to establish the extent to which legal abortions replaced

Technological advance economic growth and the distribution of income

Abstract: The relationships among technological advance economic growth and the distribution of income are examined. The author first considers the situation in nineteenth-century Western Europe. He then notes that "the new wave of technological change--computerization automation robotization--is progressively reducing the role of labor in production leading to increasing technological unemployment and exerting a socially undesirable effect on income distribution." The different options open to the governments of developed and developing countries to alleviate the resulting problems are reviewed. (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

Profiles of temporary Mexican labor migrants to the United States

Abstract: Profiles of temporary labor migrants from Mexico to the United States are constructed using Mexican data from a nationwide sample. Commuters are compared with noncommuters and males with females. Characteristics according to region of origin are examined and the profiles from this study are compared with those from two prominent previous surveys. Directions for future research are suggested. (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

The transition from higher female to higher male mortality in Sri Lanka.

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyze a reversal in the sex differential in mortality. In 1952-54 females in Sri Lanka had a lower expectation of life at birth than males. By 1970-72 females had a higher life expectation at birth. Male age specific death rates are generally higher than female rates. Sri Lanka has frequently been cited as 1 of the main exceptions to this generalization. During the 1960s however the sex differential in overall mortality in Sri Lanka began to shift away from a pattern of higher female than male mortality. Equality in the overall level for the 2 sexes was observed in the early 1960s. Since then the sex differential has favored females and has continued to widen. In 1970-72 Sri Lanka had higher female than male age specific death rates only in the early childhood years (1-4 and 5-9). This accords with the general observation that as mortality declines female survival rates improve faster than male survival rates. Cases of female age specific death rates being higher than the corresponding male rates become more exceptional and the predominant differences in favor of females grow steadily larger. Although son preference may be accepted as a possible explanation of the mortality sex differentials in Sri Lanka in 1952-54 and earlier years it is difficult to imagine that such attitudes have not changed over time. Since very little change in the sex differentials in mortality has occurred in the infant and early childhood stages one can infer either that male preference is not a factor responsible for higher female mortality in early childhood or that if it is a factor it has not changed much during the period. It is possible that traditional attitudes operate on an unconscious level and are not easily changed. (summaries in FRE SPA)

Fertility decline in the West: Causes and prospects.

Abstract: It seems ironic, if not perverse, that as problems of rapid population growth in the developing countries of the world have captured the concern of many governments and international agencies, a small but increasing number of voices are raising concern in some advanced countries about the opposite problem-the problem of low fertility and impending population decline. While the government of Mexico worries about the costs of educating its numerous children (with 42 percent of the population under 15 years of age), the government of West Germany is concerned with the costs of supporting the aged, with one-sixth of its population aged 65 and over. At the same time that the Chinese government is promoting the norm of the one-child family and economically penalizing those who exceed two, the government of France is offering 10,000 francs to couples having a third or later birth. The "population problem" of the West first appeared in the 1930s and gave rise to fears of economic stagnation and of inundation by foreign labor. With the advent of World War II, these fears subsided and were soon replaced in some countries with new problems of expansion associated with postwar baby booms. But in the late 1960s and 1970s, fertility rates again declined rapidly, with the total fertility rate currently reaching a low of 1.4 in West Germany and Denmark and falling below the replacement level of 2.1 in all other Western countries except Ireland and in several Eastern European countries. Some of the Eastern European countries managed to increase their fertility slightly, presumably with various kinds of incentive systems and in some instances by making abortion more difficult to secure, but fertility declines are once again evident in Rumania, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. The prevailing speculation is that the increases are short-lived and that the primary forces of social change conducive to later marriage and low fertility will persist. For most countries, this low level of fertility has not yet been perceived as a problem demanding government response. The general lack of official

Childrens work activities in Malaysia.

Abstract: If we understood better the economic contributions that children make to parents, we might also understand better the course of demographic transition and economic development. Such information could prove instrumental in efforts to slow population growth and to increase income levels of future generations. Information on children's economic value to parents might provide answers to many puzzles in the developing world. Couples in developing nations, especially poor couples, often have a great many children. Does this result from ignorance and poor judgment, or does the explanation lie more with costs and returns of having and raising children? Is school attendance among some rural agricultural populations low because parents are unaware of the value of education, or because children in those environments have many important alternative uses for their time? Do children perform activities that free parents, especially mothers, to move into the marketplace? And, conversely, when mothers work away from their homes, do children take up the slack at home, perhaps at the expense of time in school? This article takes one step along the road to answering these questions by exploring children's work patterns while they live with their parents. It begins with a brief overview of past efforts in this area and a discussion of problems and issues encountered in estimating the economic value of children. Sections that follow describe the country setting and data base for this study, discuss what we expect to find and why, and present results. The final section provides a summary and conclusion.

Fertility determinants in a High Andes community.

Abstract: Observation of the daily and seasonal activities of the Aymara Indians of southern Peru illustrates the effects of ecological pressures economic strategies and cultural preferences on reproductive behavior. Economic strategies are oriented toward risk reduction through diversification of productive activities including cultivation animal husbandry wage labor cash cropping and trade or transport. The most highly valued social relationships are those created by marriage. Social pressures especially from parents prevent young people from marrying until they are capable of supporting a family. Parents rely extensively on the labor of both younger and older children to free them for other tasks. The Aymara strive to attain a family size compatible with their environment and resources. In so doing they attempt to approximate a culturally prescribed ideal of 5 children. (authors modified) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

Infant mortality trends in the Soviet Union

Abstract: This article examines the reliability of the Soviet Unions statistical reporting system and the extent to which improvements in reporting have affected regional and national infant mortality rates. [The] investigation of the Soviet registration system provides persuasive evidence that much of the highly publicized increase in Soviet infant mortality rates is due to increasingly comprehensive reporting of infant deaths in the Soviet Muslim southern tier (the four Central Asian republics Azerbaydzhan Kazakhstan and the Muslim autonomous republics in the RSFSR or Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republics). The authors note that "Soviet efforts to tighten up birth and death registration have produced rapid increases in recorded infant mortality rates in these regions. These increases have fueled the much less dramatic rise in overall USSR rates which have in turn contributed to the decline in reported life expectancy." (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

New Rice Technology, Intrarural Migration, and Institutional Innovation in the Philippines

Abstract: This article seeks to analyze the complex interrelationship between technology migration and institutional innovation through study of the process of diffusion of new rice technology in the Province of Laguna in the Philippines.... The authors then "review the process of technology diffusion and associated changes in labor demand in the lowland rice area. Second [they] document the pattern of labor migration corresponding to differential impact of the new technology. Finally [they] analyze changes in labor contracts associated with the new technology and the migration of labor." (summary in FRE SPA) (EXCERPT)

Prospects for Fertility Decline in Rural Kenya

Abstract: Prospects for the onset of fertility decline in Kenya are examined in the light of Caldwells wealth flows theory of fertility transition. Data on lineal and lateral wealth flows and levels of emotional nucleation obtained from a sample of 836 rural male household heads were used for this purpose. The findings suggest a net parental advantage in intergenerational wealth flow exchange with offspring. Limited levels of emotional nucleation were also observed. Given both findings it is concluded that prospects for the early onset of fertility decline in rural Kenya are not very promising. (authors) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

The industrial and demographic transitions in East Asia.

Abstract: A comparative study of economic growth of monsoon Asian countries since World War II reveals some striking associations between economic and demographic trends: the rapid growth of productivity and product and the sharp decline in birth rates in Japan Taiwan South Korea Hong Kong and Singapore contrast with the slower growth of productivity and product and slower decline in birth rates in the Philippines Thailand Malaysia and Indonesia. This paper reviews the record of economic growth and fertility change in these countries and speculates about the connections between the two. More specifically it attempts to relate the completion of the industrial transition to the completion of the demographic transition by conjecturing that a major force linking the two transitions in East Asia was the spread of mechanization in agriculture industry and services. It traces the impact of the mechanization process on the transition from a predominantly agricultural society to an industrial society and on forces affecting the fertility declines. The spread of secondary education as a response to the labor force requirements of mechanization and as an inducement to lower fertility is posited to be the major linkage between the two transitions. The argument is set forth in broad terms with easily available macro data in the hope that the framework and conjectures may be useful in the formulation of more specific hypotheses for testing with more detailed data especially from micro surveys. (excerpt)