Showing papers in "Population Studies-a Journal of Demography in 1999"
TL;DR: This study is the first comparative study to investigate the relationship between fertility and mortality late in life in England and Wales and Austria and finds similar patterns and age-specific trends of excess mortality in both populations.
Abstract: Does a woman's reproductive history influence her life span? This study explores the question with data from the contemporary female populations of England and Wales and Austria It is the first comparative study to investigate the relationship between fertility and mortality late in life We find similar patterns and age-specific trends of excess mortality in both populations: parity significantly influences longevity, as do both an early and a late birth These differences in longevity are not explained by differences in educational or family status The impact of a woman's reproductive history on her life span is small, however, compared to the influence of her level of education or family status
169 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide evidence about what happens to people's incomes when their or their parents' marital union dissolves using longitudinal data from waves 1--4 of the British Household Panel Survey.
Abstract: We provide new evidence about what happens to people's incomes when their or their parents' marital union dissolves using longitudinal data from waves 1--4 of the British Household Panel Survey. Marital splits are accompanied by substantial declines in real income for separating wives and children on average, whereas separating husbands' real income on average changes much less. Results are shown to be robust to the choice of income de®nition and degree of economies of scale built into the household equivalence scale, and are validated with information about respondents' assessments of how their personal ®nancial circumstances changed. In addition we analyse the extent to which the welfare state mitigates the size of the income loss for women and children relative to men, and document the accompanying changes in social assistance bene®t receipt and paid work, and maintenance income receipt and payment.
157 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the effects of three age misreporting patterns (net age overstatement, net age understatement, and symmetric misreporting) on mortality estimates at ages 40 and above were investigated.
Abstract: This study examines how age misreporting typically affects estimates of mortality at older ages. We investigate the effects of three patterns of age misreporting - net age overstatement, net age understatement, and symmetric age misreporting - on mortality estimates at ages 40 and above. We consider five methods to estimate mortality: conventional estimates derived from vital statistics and censuses; longitudinal studies where age is identified at baseline; variable-r procedures based on age distributions of the population; variable-r procedures based on age distributions of deaths; and extinct generation methods. For each of the age misreporting patterns and each of the methods of mortality estimation, we find that age misstatement biases mortality estimates downwards at the oldest ages.
147 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of previous cohabitation on marital stability among the 1958 British birth cohort was investigated by using discrete time logistic regression hazards models to analyse the risk of separation in the first eight years of marriage.
Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of previous cohabitation on marital stability among the 1958 British birth cohort. Prospective data from the National Child Development Study are used to investigate the way in which family background factors and early lifecourse experiences, including cohabitation, affect the risk of first marriage dissolution by age 33. Discrete time logistic regression hazards models are used to analyse the risk of separation in the first eight years of marriage. Many socio-economic and family background factors are found to act through more intermediate determinants, such as age at marriage and the timing of childbearing, to affect the risk of separation. Previous cohabitation with another partner and premarital cohabitation are both associated with higher rates of marital breakdown. The effect of premarital cohabitation is attenuated but remains significant once the characteristics of cohabitors are controlled, and cannot be explained by the longer time spent in a partnership.
138 citations
TL;DR: The authors investigated whether past declines in mortality could have created a huge deficit of eligible men in the marriage market, and whether the ensuing competition for mates could be responsible for the coercive character the dowry system of marriage has assumed in India.
Abstract: The paper investigates whether past declines in mortality could have created a huge deficit of eligible men in the marriage market, and whether the ensuing competition for mates could be responsible for the coercive character the dowry system of marriage has assumed in India. New indices have been developed to measure the trends in bridegroom availability that aid in the inquiry into the demographic origins of marriage squeeze. It is contended that the marriage squeeze against women was particularly intense in India because mortality decline, in addition to age structural changes, drastically reduced the number of widowers in the population who once accounted for about one-fifth of the annual supply of bridegrooms. Our projections indicate that, as a result of recent declines in fertility, the marriage squeeze against females will ease substantially by the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, and that marriages of men will begin to be delayed more than those of women.
130 citations
TL;DR: For example, this article found that by age 33, off-spring of parents who divorced are more likely to have dissolved their first partnerships, after taking into account age at first partnership, type of first partnership and indicators of class background and childhood and adolescent school achievement and behaviour problems.
Abstract: From a longitudinal survey of a British cohort born in 1958 this study finds that, by age 33, off-spring of parents who divorced are more likely to have dissolved their first partnerships. This finding persists after taking into account age at first partnership, type of first partnership (marital, pre-marital cohabiting union, and cohabiting union), and indicators of class background and childhood and adolescent school achievement and behaviour problems. Some of these factors are associated with partnership dissolution in their own right, but the association between parental divorce and second generation partnership dissolution is largely independent of them. Demographic factors, including type of and age at first partnership, were important links between parental divorce and partnership dissolution. Moreover, the estimated effects of parental divorce were substantially reduced when the demographic variables were taken into account, suggesting that cohabitation and early partnership may be important pathw...
116 citations
TL;DR: Using cross-sectional data from Ghana, Malaw i, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, a multilevel analysis was performed to determine the extent of correlation of nutritional status between children in the same family and geographical area.
Abstract: Using cross-sectional data from Ghana, Malaw i, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, a multilevel analysis was performed to determine the extent of correlation of nutritional status between children in the same family and geographical area. Weight-for-age z-scores were used as a measure of nutritional status for children up to three years of age. The percentage of children who were under-weight ranged from 16 in Zimbabwe up to 36 in Nigeria. The effects of socioeconomic factors and individual characteristics on nutritional status between countries varied. However in all six countries, the child's age was the most important factor associated with nutritional status. A clustering effect at the household level was found in all six countries, ranging from 24 per cent in Tanzania and Zimbabwe to 40 per cent in Malaw i. There was also a significant, but smaller, clustering effect at community level for Malaw i, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia.
114 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the fertility of Swedish men and women who lived in a consensual or marital union in the 1970s and 1980s and where at least one of the partners had children before they entered that union were examined.
Abstract: We focus on the fertility of Swedish men and women who lived in a consensual or marital union in the 1970s and 1980s, and where at least one of the partners had children before they entered that union. Couples without any children before the current union were included for contrast. We find clear evidence that couples wanted a shared biological child, essentially regardless of how many children (if any) they had before their current union. The shared child seems to have served to demonstrate commitment to the union, as did its conversion into a formal marriage. We have not found much support for the hypothesis that our respondents sought to enter parenthood to attain adult status. A second birth might have been valued because it provided a sibling for the first child - a half-sibling acting as a substitute for a full sibling - but our evidence for such effects is contradictory. Our analysis makes it very clear that parity progression depends on whose parity we consider.
108 citations
TL;DR: Analysis of data from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys demonstrates that fertility trends observed in many less developed countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing.
Abstract: This study examines the role of tempo effects in the fertility declines of less developed countries. These effects temporarily inflate the total fertility of a population during periods when the age at childbearing declines and deflate it when childbearing is postponed. An analysis of data from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys demonstrates that fertility trends observed in many less developed countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. In most countries women are delaying childbearing, which implies that observed fertility is lower than it would have been without tempo changes. This pattern is most clearly documented in Taiwan, where accurate birth statistics from a vital registration system make it possible to estimate the tempo components of fertility annually from 1978 to 1993. The small but unexpected rise in the total fertility of Colombia in the early 1990s is attributed to a decline in the negative tempo distortion that prevailed ...
105 citations
TL;DR: A large proportion of cohabitors in the Statistics Norway Omnibus Surveys of 1996 reported economic reasons for their hesitation to marry, and in particular the costs of the wedding.
Abstract: A large proportion of cohabitors in the Statistics Norway Omnibus Surveys of 1996 reported economic reasons for their hesitation to marry, and in particular the costs of the wedding. In line with this, the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 revealed effects both of women's cumulated income and men's non-employment on the actual choice of union type. Also some other evidence suggests that affordability matters, although there are plausible alternative interpretations. On the other hand, several estimates suggest that economic strength does not induce marriage. Since there also has been no deterioration of young adults' economic situation in Norway, except for the delay of economic independence owing to longer college enrolment, one can hardly claim that lack of affordability is a dominating force behind the massive drift away from marriage. The analysis is anchored in a theoretical framework that may prove useful in other studies of cohabitation as an alternative to marriage.
104 citations
TL;DR: Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns in Zimbabwe.
Abstract: Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.
TL;DR: The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries to describe and compare fertility patterns across European countries.
Abstract: Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show 'distortions' in terms of a 'bulge' in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a 'bulge' in early age fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a 'bulg' in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries.
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory is discussed, and the implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are discussed.
Abstract: This paper addresses the emerging interest in the relationship between homeostatic models and demographic transition theory. Firstly, it considers the nature of fertility measurement and concepts. The paper then goes on to examine evidence from pre-transitional societies in which demographic regimes have been most thoroughly studied, summarizing what is known about their character. The nature and current status of homeostatic theories in demography and the institutional supports of pre-transitional regimes are considered. The implications of the findings on pre-transitional populations for transition theory are then discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for ways in which studies of transition within a framework of homeostatic regimes could be developed.
TL;DR: The results indicate that the problem of schoolgirl pregnancy may be much more severe than is commonly assumed and there is a need to continue to improve programmes to reduce adolescent pregnancy and increase the number of young mothers who return to school to complete their education.
Abstract: In many Sub-Saharan African countries there are concerns about high rates of pregnancy-related school dropouts. Schoolgirls who become pregnant have fewer opportunities to complete their education after the birth of their first child and have fewer opportunities for socioeconomic advancement. This paper uses data from a nationally representative sample of Batswana women in conjunction with focus group interviews to describe the impact of schoolgirl pregnancy, and to identify the factors that facilitate the return to school of girls who did drop out because of pregnancy. The results indicate that the problem of schoolgirl pregnancy may be much more severe than is commonly assumed. Although the situation is improving, there is a need to continue to improve programmes to reduce adolescent pregnancy, and a need to try and increase the number of young mothers who return to school to complete their education.
TL;DR: This article examined the contrast between Muslim reproductive attitudes and behaviour in Thailand and those of Buddhists, especially in the southern region, based on a large regional survey directed towards this topic and focus group discussions among Muslims in Southern Thailand.
Abstract: This study examines the contrast between Muslim reproductive attitudes and behaviour in Thailand and those of Buddhists, especially in the southern region. Results are based primarily on a large regional survey directed towards this topic and focus group discussions among Muslims in Southern Thailand. We interpret Muslim reproductive patterns from the perspectives of the major hypotheses that have been invoked in the social demographic literature to explain links between religion and fertility. These hypotheses partly explain what appears to be a complex and context-specific relationship. Nevertheless, the linkages between religion, ethnic and cultural identity, and political setting that appear to operate are more complex than can be fully explained by even a combination of the existing hypotheses.
TL;DR: In this article, ethical questions that counterbalance these sentiments have been neglected, and empirical testing of this substitutive dynamic has been precluded by limitations in the comparative design of recent research and a lack of appropriate data.
Abstract: Sex-selective abortion following prenatal sex testing is so blatantly discriminatory that many observers have, understandably, called on governments to condemn and restrict the practice. Yet ethical questions that counterbalance these sentiments have been neglected. Restricting the practice would seem to interfere with reproductive freedoms and maternal empowerment, the twin goals adopted at the recent Cairo conference. The restrictions may also increase human suffering if sex discrimination is then shifted into the postnatal period. Consideration and empirical testing of this substitutive dynamic has been precluded by limitations in the comparative design of recent research and a lack of appropriate data. Nevertheless, this dynamic has always been presumed to exist by pro-choice advocates. Moreover, extending anti-discriminatory legislation to the prenatal realm may awaken and justify similar demands among other disadvantaged groups whose foetal counterparts have previously engendered less public sympath...
TL;DR: In this article, a method of measuring the economic returns from the average child over the entire parental life cycle is described, which is then applied to detailed household economic data from Cote d'Ivoire.
Abstract: While it has been often suggested, most notably by Caldwell, that high fertility in developing countries is motivated by the positive economic returns that children contribute to their parents, empirical evidence to support the hypothesis is limited. This paper describes a method of measuring the economic returns from the average child over the entire parental life-cycle. The method is then applied to detailed household economic data from Cote d'Ivoire. The results indicate that parents give more to their children than they receive and that the economic returns from children are negative. Overall, we estimate that the average child provides an annual rate of return of roughly –8 per cent. Our results shed light on how the returns from childbearing vary according to the age of the parents at time of birth. The results also offer a potential economic explanation of why older couples are often first to adopt modern contraception.
TL;DR: In this paper, an analysis of the 1991 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey showed that premarital childbearing has a strong and negative effect on a young woman's chances of first marriage.
Abstract: Despite a growing concern over the health and socio-economic consequences of premarital fertility in Africa, few studies have explored the effect of premarital birth on the subsequent likelihood of getting married. While some ethnographic studies have suggested that unmarried African women sometimes use childbearing as a strategy to favour or accelerate transition to marriage, this analysis of the 1991 Cameroon Demographic and Health Survey shows that, overall, premarital childbearing has a strong and negative effect on a young woman's chances of first marriage. The results also reveal, however, that the effect of premarital childbearing on subsequent union varies significantly according to duration in single motherhood. While having a premarital birth makes marriage more likely in the short run, it significantly jeopardises the marriage chances of single women in the long run.
TL;DR: For a population whose demographic transition is completed within a finite time, this paper provided an exact analytical formula for a population's momentum that reduces to Keyfitz's M K if the transition is instantaneous.
Abstract: Population momentum is the ratio of a population's ultimate size after a demographic transition to its initial size before the transition For an instantaneous drop to replacement fertility, Nathan Keyfitz found a simple expression M K for the momentum However, as Keyfitz pointed out, `no one thinks that any country will drop immediately to stationary reproduction patterns' We present results concerning the momentum of a population whose demographic transition is completed within a finite time First, we provide an exact analytical formula for such a population's momentum Second, for rapid fertility transitions, we obtain a simple exact expression for momentum that reduces to Keyfitz's M K if the transition is instantaneous We show, by example, that our simpler formulae are accurate approximations to population momentum for transitions that take as long as 100 years Finally, we show that the speed of fertility decline makes a substantial difference to population momentum
TL;DR: The results suggest that the presence of a spouse, sons, and brothers substantially improves survivorship, but with differing effects by the sex of the elderly and the number of sons and brothers.
Abstract: This study uses high quality longitudinal data on kin availability, proximity, and marital status from the Matlab surveillance area in rural Bangladesh to explore the impact of kin members on the survival of the elderly over a six year period. The results - from discrete time hazard models- suggest that the presence of a spouse, sons, and brothers substantially improves survivorship, but with differing effects by the sex of the elderly and the number of sons and brothers. This study offers little support of any of the following as mechanisms by which kin affect the survival of the elderly: changes in the economic status of the elderly as proxied by land holdings; improved access to instrumental support as proxied by the marital status of sons; decreases in social isolation as proxied by proximity of kin.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms, and applied these models to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Abstract: This paper develops multivariate models to describe homogamy or, more generally, marriage preferences, for corresponding characteristics of brides and grooms. The purpose of these models is to obtain interpretable measures of the degree of homogamy (or marriage preference) on one dimension and to adjust these measures for homogamy on other dimensions. The models are applied to a sample of marriages in Montevideo, Uruguay, with pairs of corresponding variables for the brides and grooms. The analysis estimates the unadjusted and adjusted levels of homogamy on previous marital status, age, education, religion, and location. Homogamy on location, or propinquity, is the single most important variable. Previous marital status and age describe the readiness or eligibility to marry and are associated in their effect on homogamy. Education and religion describe vertical and horizontal differentiation of marriage partners, respectively. The multivariate analysis verifies that these dimensions are largely independen...
TL;DR: An examination of the children abandoned at the foundling home of Bologna, Italy in the nineteenth century takes issue with the view that women who took in the foundlings as wetnurses and subsequently as foster mothers are to blame for their excess mortality.
Abstract: A great deal of scholarly attention has been devoted in recent years to the large-scale abandonment of newborn babies in the European past, with special emphasis given to the staggering rates of infant mortality among the foundlings. For the most part, scholars have agreed with the foundling home officials of the past in assigning much of the blame for this excess mortality to the women who took in the foundlings as wetnurses and subsequently as foster mothers. This article takes issue with this view, based on an examination of the children abandoned at the foundling home of Bologna, Italy in the nineteenth century. Four cohorts of foundlings are examined - those abandoned in 1809–30, 1829–30, 1849–50, and 1869–70 (N=3615) - as we trace the changing pattern of infant and early childhood mortality. Longitudinal methods are used in examining the life course of these foundlings and the determinants of their mortality.
TL;DR: This paper made a comparison of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841 and found that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy.
Abstract: This contribution to the study of the literacy transition in Britain, Ireland, and Australia also touches on the relationship between literacy and international migration. Some 20,000 emigrants arrived in Australia in 1841 and their literacy is here established at the individual level, and then related to regional origins, occupations, religion, sex, and family status in the British Isles. The new Australian data offer unusual evidence to juxtapose with the prevailing account of British and Irish literacy. The paper makes systematic comparisons of the immigrant evidence with existing literacy findings for the populations of England and Wales, of Ireland, and the colonial population of Australia in the year 1841. The results also show extraordinary similarity of rank orderings between the Australian data and the conventional sources. The results show that the immigrants were consistently more literate than the home and the receiving populations and indicate a substantial link between migration and literacy.
TL;DR: The results indicate that respiratory tuberculosis is the single most important underlying cause of the existence and attenuation of the pattern, that the role of liver diseases is not clear cut, and that other causes are also important.
Abstract: Some of the highest levels of excess mortality of males found anywhere in the world were present in several Far Eastern populations during the 1960s and 1970s but have progressively disappeared since that time. This study uses cause-of-death data to determine the diseases responsible for the existence and attenuation of these sex differences in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. The results indicate that respiratory tuberculosis is the single most important underlying cause of the existence and attenuation of the pattern, that the role of liver diseases is not clear cut, and that other causes (such as cardiovascular diseases) are also important. A review of numerous risk factors yields no compelling reason why these populations experienced such large sex differences in mortality. However, it seems likely that public health and biomedical improvements (particularly those related to the reduction in mortality from tuberculosis) played a critical role in the attenuation of the Far Eastern mortality pattern.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: Redistributing deaths between eight aetiological categories offers a different perception of the main determinants of health transition and of mortality prospects and provides a view of inter-country differences which may help explain recent variation in trends.
Abstract: The analysis of mortality by cause usually relies on groups of causes created by consolidating items from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD). However this type of grouping is not a very efficient means of describing the real trends in pathological processes. In this paper an alternative classification based on aetiological definitions is proposed. Redistributing deaths between eight aetiological categories offers a different perception of the main determinants of health transition and of mortality prospects. It also provides a view of inter-country differences which may help explain recent variation in trends. (EXCERPT)