Showing papers in "Real Estate Economics in 1989"

The Impacts of Borrowing Constraints on Homeownership

Abstract: This paper utilizes microdata to directly quantify the impact of mortgage underwriting criteria on individual homeownership propensities. To determine whether a family is constrained by these criteria, the optimal home purchase price is estimated. The results indicate that wealth and income constraints both reduce homeownership propensities, with a stronger impact for wealth constraints. Mortgage market innovations of the early 1980s seem to have reduced these effects. The research indicates, however, that even in well-developed capital markets, the presence of borrowing constraints adversely affects homeownership propensities.

Estimating Real Estate's Systematic Risk from Aggregate Level Appraisal‐Based Returns

Abstract: This paper estimates the systematic risk (or “beta”) of unsecuritized investment grade commercial real estate, as represented by the FRC and PRISA indices of institutional real estate holdings. Systematic risk defined with respect to national consumption is compared to systematic risk defined with respect to the stock market. Also, the risk estimates are explicitly adjusted to account for “smoothing” in appraisal-based aggregate level returns data. The systematic risk of these real estate indices appears to be virtually zero with respect to the stock market, even after correcting for smoothing, but substantially positive with respect to national consumption.

The Economics of Architecture and Urban Design: Some Preliminary Findings

Abstract: This paper makes a preliminary attempt to evaluate empirically the nature of the contribution of architectural quality to the value of buildings. An economic model is postulated that predicts equilibrium rent and vacancy behavior as a function of both design and non-design characteristics. Vacancies are created in equilibrium as a result of search and information costs and tenant heterogeneity and are observed by the landlord as price-inelastic demand behavior. Design quality is seen to influence both rent and vacancy behavior. Its effect, however, is dependent on characteristics both of the production and operating cost functions and of tenant demand for the design vs. non-design amenity. An important characteristic of the design amenity is that it is not, in general, independent of the production function for non-design amenities. The model is tested using disaggregate cross-sectional and longitudinal operating performance and amenity data from a set of 102 class A office buildings in Boston and Cambridge. Data on design quality for the set of buildings were provided by a detailed evaluation of each structure by a panel of architects. Results confirm a strong influence of design on rents; structures rated in the top 20% for design quality were predicted to extract almost 22% higher rents than those rated in the bottom 20%. In contrast, the data showed a weak relationship between vacancy behavior and design quality. Finally, good design was shown to cost more to produce on average, but not necessarily in every case. The magnitude of the point estimates of the rent, vacancy, and construction cost effects suggest that good design may not in fact be more profitable on average, but as with a lottery, may provide a small probability of a high return to the developer.

Bias in Appraisal‐Based Returns

Abstract: This note quantifies and extends Giliberto's [AREUEA Journal 16(1)] analysis of bias in appraisal-based returns. An important clarification and distinction is made, defining two different perspectives from which one may view appraisal return bias. The Giliberto analysis addressed bias in the holding period return only. Here, after reviewing and extending Giliberto's analysis in this regard, bias is considered from another perspective, that of the arithmetic mean of a time-series of appraisal-based returns. The two types of bias are likely to be of opposite sign, thereby possibly offsetting one another, so that we may often observe very little bias in the means of empirical appraisal-based returns time-series.

Mobility‐Tenure Decisions and Financial Credit: Do Mortgage Qualification Requirements Constrain Homeownership?

Abstract: Housing analysts have generally assumed that mortgage qualification requirements significantly constrain homownership, however there has been no empirical evidence of this effect. By explicitly modeling and estimating the impact of mortgage qualification requirements on households' mobility and tenure decisions, this paper provides the first empirical evidence of the effect of these criteria on homeownership. The estimation results suggest that in 1986, mortgage qualification criteria did not provide a large constraint on homeownership. However, they also show that the impact of these criteria increases as the flow costs of owning decrease relative to those of renting. This implies that the nationwide significance of these constraints will vary with fluctuations in the macro economy, and that policies designed to limit the effect of these requirements will be more successful in economic environments favorable to homeownership.

The Effect of Historic District Designation on Single‐Family Home Prices

Abstract: The designation and regulation of local historic districts in Baltimore, Maryland started in 1964. Structures within these districts are required to maintain exteriors in the style of the historical significance of the neighborhoods. Prior studies in other cities have shown that the designation did not always lead to an increase in restoration activities in these areas. This paper analyzes the effect of the designation on transaction prices and finds historic districts do have higher prices than identical non-historic districts.

Inferring an Investment Return Series for Real Estate from Observations on Sales

Abstract: Accurate measurement of the returns to real estate investment are essential to sound analysis. This paper improves upon the traditionally employed method-collecting comparable sales data. A dynamic model of real estate appraisal is developed in which agents have incomplete information, heterogeneous search costs, and varying expectations. Various types of simulation analysis of the model indicate it performs best in the sense that the return estimate converges to the true value faster than other simpler rules. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

The Optimal Duration of Real Estate Listing Contracts

Abstract: The length of the real estate listing contract is examined as a means of providing an incentive for brokers to act in the best interest of home sellers. A limitation on the duration of the contract accomplishes this objective by imposing a cost (namely, the foregone commission) on brokers who fail to complete a sale before the contract expires. The seller's optimal contract duration balances the benefits of improved incentives against the expected cost of renegotiating a new contract in the event of a failure bv the broker.

Current Wealth and Tenure Choice

Abstract: This paper argues that a central implication of tenure transition models is that the timing of a household's initial switch to ownership is particularly dependent upon its current net worth. In contrast, permanent income, largely derived from human capital, is assumed to be the dominant component of the relevant household budget constraint in conventional tenure choice models. These contending propositions are tested using a Canadian micro database. Consistent with the tenure transition approach, current nonhuman wealth is found to have the primary budgetary role in tenure mode decisions of young households.

Housing Price Indexes from the 1974–1983 SIMSA Annual Housing Surveys

Abstract: This paper reports residential real estate price indexes computed from the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) Annual Housing Survey (AHS) for the 1974 through 1983 period. During this ten-year period, the U.S. Bureau of the Census conducted detailed surveys of the housing stock in sixty metropolitan areas in a three to four year cycle. This information is used to compute tenure specific hedonic housing price indexes for: (1) the entire metropolitan housing market; (2) separately for properties located in the central city and in the suburbs (whenever central city locations are identified); and (3) for three points in the dwelling quality distribution-for substandard housing (using the definition employed by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development), for new housing (housing less than three years old and not substandard), and for existing standard quality housing (everything else). In addition, the hedonic prices reported here are adjusted for the finite sample bias introduced when taking the exponential of a lognormally distributed random variable.

Non Uniform Percentage Brokerage Commissions and Real Estate Market Performance

Abstract: The effect of non-uniform commissions on the market duration of residential properties is ambiguous. While the broker's search effort is positively related to the size of the percentage commission, so is the seller's reservation price. Each of these relationships imply a time-on-market effect in the opposite direction of the other. A powerful statistical technique, survival regression, is employed to determine which relationship dominates. Because the probability that a property will sell at any given point in time is inversely related to the size of the percentage commission, we conclude that the negative search effects associated with low commission rates are more than offset by the positive reservation price effects.

Mortgage Borrower Repayment Behavior: A Microeconomic Analysis with Canadian Adjustable Rate Mortgage Data

Abstract: In this paper we estimate a model of mortgage borrower behavior using micro-level data on Canadian borrowers with rollover mortgages—a form of adjustable-rate mortgage. Our results suggest that the probability of default rises with a decrease in housing equity and an increase in the mortgage contract rate; however the size of these changes is relatively small. They also show that partial prepayment is sensitive to fluctuations in the rates of return from investing in housing versus other assets. For the United States experience, our results suggest that, relative to fixed-rate mortgage borrowers, adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers are more likely to default and less likely to prepay.

Impact Fees and the Price of New Housing: An Empirical Study

Abstract: Development exactions in the form of impact fees are being used increasingly by local governments to fund the cost of providing public services necessitated by growth and development. This paper presents the results of an empirical study designed to ascertain the extent to which impact fees are capitalized into the price of new, single-family dwellings. On June 3, 1974, the city of Dunedin, located in Pinellas County, Florida, began assessing impact fees of $1,150 against all new, single-family construction. Using data on 5,839 new home sales in Dunedin and three other cities in Pinellas County from 1971–1982, it was found that builders were able to pass forward the total cost of impact fees to new home buyers. However, the price differential due to impact fees for new dwellings in Dunedin compared to the price of new dwellings in the other three cities disappeared after approximately six years. This is explained by the nature of the fee structure in Dunedin, adjustments in factor costs, increases in the price of housing in competing cities, and unrealized expectations regarding the benefits to be provided by impact fee collections.

Credit Rationing and Government Loan Programs: A Welfare Analysis

Abstract: Asymmetric information about borrower default probabilities may lead to inefficient credit rationing of low-risk borrowers in otherwise competitive markets. In a simple model having these properties, we show that some types of government loan programs, such as loan guarantees issued through lenders, might improve economic efficiency. But the incentive for high-risk borrowers to misrepresent their loan quality is worsened by other government loan programs, notably those that try to target aid directly to rationed borrowers. As such, cost-effective programs may increase inefficiency. This surprising result highlights the need to conduct model-specific policy analyses, as opposed to analyses based on model-free performance indicators.

Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Stochastic Interest Rates

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to develop a dynamic model of mortgage refinancing in a contingent claim framework that simultaneously solves for the borrower's optimal mortgage refinancing strategy, the value of the refinancing call option, the value of the mortgage liability to the borrower, and the market (lender) value of the fixed-rate contract. We also calculate the minimum differential between the contract rate on the existing mortgage and the current interest rate that is required to trigger an optimal mortgage refinancing.

Income and Appraised Values: A Reexamination of the FRC Returns Data

Abstract: This paper compares the income of those office properties that are included in the FRC index, with the appraised values that are used to determine the index's appreciation component. We find that the appraised value of the portfolio was a constant multiple of its current income, over the 1978–1988 period. This seems at odds with what modern valuation theory would suggest, since both nominal interest rates and several measures of real rates varied widely over the sample. An alternate interpretation of our results is that the appraised values were based on a set of expectations about future income growth, that turned out over the period, to be continually at odds with respect to actual income.

Relocation Opportunities and Mortgage Default

Abstract: This paper presents a theoretical model of residential mortgage default when borrowers face beneficial as well as costly relocation opportunities. It amplifies and extends previous work by providing explicit conditions leading to default. The model also establishes when a borrower's relocation decision and default decision are dependent and when they are not. A central result is that there is a range of book equity wherein the decision to default is not determined solely by the current level of equity or the borrower's ability to continue the mortgage payments. Rather, various costs and benefits, both tangible and intangible, enter into the decision. Specific conditions are identified that lead to relocation without default, default and relocation, and no default or relocation. The effects of changes in the variables upon default probability are presented. Assuming that the borrower does not wish to retain ownership in the property, the model also predicts whether an individual borrower will choose prepayment or default when a relocation is made. The choice depends on the value of the relocation opportunity faced by the borrower, as well as financial variables such as house value, mortgage balance, and transaction costs. This finding suggests that existing empirical analyses of default may have omitted explanatory variables.

On the use of the Financial Option Price Model to Value and Explain Vacant Urban Land

Abstract: This paper reviews the financial option model of under-utilizing urban land, with primary attention to the question of whether and how the model might move beyond the academic realm toward practical and quantitative applications. It is argued that the theoretical underpinnings that give the option model such power in the financial securities field do not extend to land applications, making it more important to justify the model empirically. Numerical analysis using a “decision analysis” type model of land option value is used in the paper to help guide and focus such empirical study. It is noted that while the option model focuses primary attention on uncertainty in future building values as the cause of land being held undeveloped, previous deterministic models focused on expected future growth in such values as the main cause for land speculation. As these two causes can have different policy implications, it would be desirable to use empirical analysis to gauge their relative importance. A strategy for empirically testing the option model of land is suggested, and concludes that definitive empirical tests will be difficult to achieve, in part because of the subjective nature of many of the model inputs.

The Motivation for Institutional Real Estate Sales and Implications for Asset Class Returns

Abstract: Since real estate assets are sold infrequently, analyses that use samples of exclusively sold properties to estimate pricing models may be seriously in error. This paper uses data on samples of sold and unsold properties and an appropriate statistical methodology to evaluate the extent of this bias. The results clearly show that it is important to control for sales motivations and that pricing equations that ignore this source of bias may be misleading.

The Asset Approach to Pricing Urban Land: Empirical Evidence

Abstract: Many papers have attempted to explain Intelmetropolitan variations in the price of housing using multi-equation models of the metropolitan housing market. This paper uses a long-run equilibrium urban asset model to explain such variations. The model builds upon previous models that introduce uncertainty into the dynamic urban model of land conversion. The empirical results strongly support the asset approach to valuing land in urban areas.

Housing Rental Contracts and Adverse Selection with an Application to the Rent‐Own Decision

Abstract: A model of rental housing is developed in which landlords cannot observe the utilization rate of their tenants. As a result of this imperfect information, an adverse selection problem exists where high utilization households have an incentive to conceal their type in order to obtain more favorable contract terms. Consequently, the market equilibrium must satisfy a self-selection constraint, which imposes certain restrictions on the set of contracts that will be offered by landlords. These restrictions are examined in detail, and their implications for a household's decision to rent or own its housing are derived.

Social Returns to Housing and Other Fixed Capital

Abstract: This paper addresses the efficiency of the allocation of the capital stock between housing and other types of private capital. Using national income data from 1929 to 1986 the returns to housing capital relative to all other private fixed capital are computed. The analysis indicates that the real returns to capital have been much smaller and much more variable for housing than for non-housing fixed capital in the U.S. economy.

The Insolvent Thrifts of 1982: Where Are They Now?

Abstract: In 1982, 237 thrifts were GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principle) insolvent. By 1987, 92 of these were either merged or closed and 77 remained insolvent. The remaining 68 were GAAP solvent with an average GAAP-to-total-assets ratio of 5.6%. The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors that affected the probability of solvency for the 1982-insolvent thrifts over the period 1983–1987. To identify these factors, the probability of insolvency is modeled in each year between 1983 and 1987 using logistic regression. Because a thrift can earn its way out of insolvency or raise outside capital, the probability of solvency is a function of the infusion of outside capital along with balance sheet and income statement ratios reflecting the thrifts earning ability. The only variable consistently significant in each year is the variable reflecting the raising of outside capital.

The Impact of Unseasonable Weather on Housing Starts

Abstract: This study tests the effects of unseasonable weather on housing starts at the national and regional level. Goodman [1] examined this issue and concluded that abnormal weather conditions have little or no effect on the pace of housing starts. The models presented in this study allow the impact of unseasonable weather on starts to vary over each month of the year whereas the specification in Goodman constrained these effects to vary between only the summer and winter. In addition, lagged weather deviations are included in the model to determine if unseasonable weather affects the demand for housing or merely the timing of housing starts. The results suggest that unseasonable weather does affect the pace of housing starts in the months of the first quarter. Oddly enough, however, the results indicate that the effects of weather on starts are not offset in following months.