Showing papers in "Socio-economic Planning Sciences in 1995"
TL;DR: In this article, an integrated model using goal programming and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been developed for energy resource allocation, which incorporates nine quantitative and three qualitative criteria.
Abstract: Energy resource allocation presents a multi-criteria decision making problem with the criteria being quantitative and/or qualitative. Solving such a problem requires an integrated approach. In this paper, an integrated model using goal programming and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been developed for energy resource allocation. It incorporates nine quantitative and three qualitative criteria. The model has been applied to the household sector of Madras, India. A detailed sensitivity analysis has also been carried out. Three additional scenarios have been developed. Use of the model suggested: natural gas, fuelwood and solar thermal for cooking; biogas and electricity generated from fuelwood for water pumping; and all decentralized electricity generation technologies for lighting and operating household appliances. Grid electricity was perferred only for lighting.
179 citations
TL;DR: The modelling approach is applied to a hypothetical planning problem of waste management facility expansion/utilization planning within a regional solid waste (RSW) management system and results indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for both binary and continuous variables.
Abstract: This paper introduces a grey fuzzy integer programming (GFIP) method and its application to regional solid waste management planning under uncertainty. The GFIP improves upon the existing integer programming methods by incorporating both grey fuzzy linear programming (GFLP) and grey integer programming (GIP) approaches within a general optimization framework. The approach allows uncertainty in both model coefficients and stipulations to be effectively communicated into the optimization process and resulting solutions, such that feasible decision alternatives can be generated through appropriate interpretation of the solutions. Moreover, the GFIP does not lead to more complicated intermediate models in its solution process, thus offering lower computational requirements than existing methods. In addition, it is applicable to practical problems. The modelling approach is applied to a hypothetical planning problem of waste management facility expansion/utilization planning within a regional solid waste (RSW) management system. The results indicate that reasonable solutions were generated for both binary and continuous variables. The binary variable solutions represent the related grey decisions of waste management facility expansion within a multi-period, multi-facility and multi-scale context. Further, they have been interpreted to provide decision alternatives that reflect the effects of uncertainties. The continuous variable solutions relate to grey decisions for waste flow allocation corresponding to the suggested facility expansions.
144 citations
TL;DR: A detailed analysis of existing published research on project/program evaluation, selection and fund allocation within service and government sectors is presented, and it is concluded that few publications deal with both evaluation and allocation as an integrated process.
Abstract: A detailed analysis of existing published research on project/program evaluation, selection and fund allocation within service and government sectors is presented. This analysis is based on a survey of 306 articles from 93 journals. Different methods for measuring intangibles are briefly presented and contrasted along with typical non-industrial applications. It is concluded that few publications deal with both evaluation and allocation as an integrated process, and that a systematic classification of prevailing research does not exist. A scheme is developed for categorizing published research in terms of modeling methodology, objectives, scope and areas of application. Additionally, trends and new areas of research are identified.
60 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the impact of the 1978 economic reforms for the period 1966-1988 on the Textiles, Chemicals and Metallurgical Industries was investigated using data obtained from Chinese sources.
Abstract: Using data obtained from Chinese sources for the period 1966–1988, this paper reports results from a study of the impact of the 1978 economic reforms for the period 1966–1988 on the Textiles, Chemicals and Metallurgical Industries. In all three, the effects were found to be dramatic and manifested almost immediately in: (1) drastic changes in capital-to-labor ratios; (2) large increases in output; and (3) significant increases in efficiency. DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) and SF (Stochastic Frontier Analysis) provide analytic frameworks which are interpreted as follows. Via its single optimization over all observations, SF estimates are addressed to behavior across all periods while n optimizations used in DEA (one for each observation) are addressed to performances in each of the periods that are applicable for effecting its evaluations. Although based on different principles and treating the data in different ways, these two different approaches to performance evaluation, as used here, provide confirmation of each other's findings. The adjustments to the data obtained from efficiency evaluations in these two approaches are also used to show that trends underlying the observed behavior would have accelerated under fully efficient production. The joint use made here of DEA and SF contrasts with points of view that have regarded these two approaches as mutually exclusive alternatives. A new ratio measure of efficiency is also introduced in furtherance of DEA as a body of concepts in its own right.
55 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the determinants of a particularly important dimension of local aggregate performance -the technical efficiency with which hospital outputs are produced, using data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique.
Abstract: Using aggregates of acute care hospitals in given metropolitan areas as decision making units (DMUs), the hospital industry's technical efficiency in 319 U.S. metropolitan areas was evaluated. The performance of hospital aggregates may be as important to solving hospital cost inefficiency and waste problems as the performance of individual hospitals themselves. This study examines the determinants of a particularly important dimension of local aggregate performance-the technical efficiency with which hospital outputs are produced. Aggregate technical efficiencies are measured using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Results indicate that at least 3% of health care costs in the gross domestic product (GDP) are due to inefficiencies created by the excessive buildup of providers. Potential planning priorities for eliminating such waste in each local hospital market are recommended.
52 citations
TL;DR: This article found that moderate amounts of faculty time spent in the non-research roles of teaching and consulting are, in fact, facilitative of research productivity and established values for the point at which such activities cease to have a facilitating effect.
Abstract: This study tests the proposition that moderate amounts of faculty time spent in the “non-research” roles of teaching and consulting are, in fact, facilitative of research productivity; and establishes values for the point at which such activities cease to have a facilitating effect. This was done by fitting continuous piecewise-linear regression models to 1980 data pertaining to a national sample of 5605 faculty. The study illustrates the effectiveness of piecewise-linear methods relative to polynomial techniques for problems of this kind and suggests that the former approach should be more prevalent. The results indicate that up to 4 hr p/wk of consulting and up to 8 hr p/wk of teaching are indeed facilitative of research productivity. Policy implications are discussed.
50 citations
TL;DR: The results suggest that, for a given budget level for facility construction, it may be possible for ambulance coverage to be increased with little or no loss in fire coverage if ambulance stations are freed of the requirement to be sited only at fire stations.
Abstract: The model presented in this paper is developed for an integrated emergency system in which ambulance and fire service deployment are simultaneously considered. The model extends and blends the Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) for ambulance siting and the Facility Location-Equipment Emplacement Technique (FLEET) for fire service placement. The objective of the new formulation is to maximize and trade-off both ambulance and fire coverage subject to constraints on the total number of vehicles and stations of both types that can be sited. We introduce a new concept in integrated coverage that permits free-standing ambulance stations to be sited in addition to fire stations. Typically, ambulances are located at fire stations and, sometimes, hospitals; that is, eligible sites are driven by prior choices that did not include consideration of ambulance service. Our results, based on three sample problems, suggest that, for a given budget level for facility construction, it may be possible for ambulance coverage to be increased with little or no loss in fire coverage. This condition pertains if ambulance stations are freed of the requirement to be sited only at fire stations.
42 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the impacts of public decision making through a new analytic framework based on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and an extended shift-share analysis was modeled.
Abstract: This paper models the impacts of public decision making through a new analytic framework based on the integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and an extended shift-share analysis. The research is set within the context of Erickson's new model on the suburban economy, allowing study of the spatial economic impacts of new town development in Hong Kong for the period 1966–1986. Development patterns for the period 1986–2006 are analyzed using the same approach with three different development scenarios. It was found that Hong Kong's public housing-led new town development strategy has stimulated occurrence of the first spillover/specialization stage in the Erickson model, although the second dispersal/diversification stage has yet to be achieved. In the absence of a concomitant policy to disperse employment, new town development in Hong Kong has resulted in a mismatch between place of residence and place of work, leading to a polarization between white-collar jobs concentrated in the older urban areas and blue-collar jobs in the newer towns. Results indicate that the second stage of Erickson's model may be achieved if Hong Kong maintains its current growth momentum. However, the current concentrated development strategy of the Hong Kong government may jeopardize the development of self-contained/self-balanced new towns, possibly leading to further overcrowding in central urban areas. Such a concentrated strategy may also deter the further integration of Hong Kong with the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone in China.
31 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a Markov model of population flows in and out of light and heavy cocaine use is presented, which quantifies how the recent epidemic shifted from light use to heavy use.
Abstract: A Markov model of population flows in and out of light and heavy cocaine use is presented. The model quantifies how the recent epidemic shifted from light use to heavy use. Projecting future consumption from hypothetical initiation scenarios suggests: (1) reducing initiation is vital; even temporary lapses can have lasting negative effects; and (2) even if initiation ceased immediately, the quantity consumed would decay with a half-life of more than a decade due to inertia created by current heavy users. Hence, reducing initiation is necessary, but not sufficient; measures that directly address consumption by heavy users are also needed.
27 citations
TL;DR: The paper presents a scheme designed to calculate the expected number of customers who travel to a single facility, given a set of finite locations, and a location-allocation heuristic algorithm is provided.
Abstract: In this paper we consider the problem of locating discretionary service facilities on a network while accounting for these facilities' finite capacities. It is assumed that customers travelling on preplanned tours may deviate from these tours to visit a discretionary service facility. However, the number of customers who travel to a facility is a decreasing function of the deviation distance, which is the additional distance incurred as a result of deviating from the tour, plus the time spent in the service facility (including possible waiting time). The paper presents a scheme designed to calculate the expected number of customers who travel to a single facility. Given a set of finite locations, this scheme can be used to find the single optimal location. For problems with more than one facility, a location-allocation heuristic algorithm is provided.
24 citations
TL;DR: The central message of this paper is that the planning process should be well informed and should take an integrated view of the health care system so that major future repercussions of actions taken today can be foreseen (albeit imperfectly).
Abstract: SHARP provides an analytical framework that for the first time brings together all major elements of the health care system and helps to organize our thoughts about the system as a system . (The acronym stands for System for Health Area Resource Planning; SHARP has been developed for Ontario, the largest of the Canadian provinces.) A framework for discussion is especially important during the current period of “health reform”, spurred largely by concerns to bring cost increases under control. The central message of this paper is that the planning process should be well informed and should take an integrated view of the health care system so that major future repercussions of actions taken today can be foreseen (albeit imperfectly). In reforming the system, it is important to anticipate both the requirements for health care services and the resources that are likely to be available to satisfy those requirements. That is where SHARP can be helpful. With its comprehensive and forward-looking view of the health care system, SHARP can usefully inform the current debate about the future of the health care sector. The main features of SHARP are described and the system is illustrated with special reference to nurses and the services that they provide.
TL;DR: Monte-Carlo simulation and subjective evaluations are used to compare the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and probabilistic multidimensional scaling (PROSCAL) in the context of selecting the United States' first high-level nuclear waste repository.
Abstract: Monte-Carlo simulation and subjective evaluations are used to compare the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and probabilistic multidimensional scaling (PROSCAL) in the context of selecting the United States' first high-level nuclear waste repository. The simulation assumes a Thurstonian judgment framework as a means of evaluating the perofrmance of AHP/PROSCAL estimation procedures. Simulated factors include the amount of Thurstonian uncertainty and number of decision-makers. The subjective evaluations of the two methods are given by individuals who make both AHP and PROSCAL judgments in a hypothetical nuclear waste repository decision. Various strengths and weaknesses of the two methods are identified.
TL;DR: Goals of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and Privately Owned Enterprises (POEs) along with criteria that these organizations use to evaluate performance are studied in this paper, with Delphi procedures using internal auditors of Latin American airlines as panel members.
Abstract: Goals of State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Privately Owned Enterprises (POEs) are here studied along with criteria that these organizations use to evaluate performance. The study was conducted with Delphi procedures using internal auditors of Latin American airlines as panel members. No statistically significant differences appeared to distinguish between the goals reported to be important by SOEs and POEs, but substantial differences in priority occurred in the criteria used to evaluate actual performance.
TL;DR: In this article, a modifiable spatial filter is used to estimate the progression rates of students from one grade to the next by aggregating student residences, by grade, for a 3-year period over a larger area.
Abstract: This paper describes a new method for making short-term (4–8 yr) student enrollment projections by grade and ethnic group for small geographic areas. The method links an information system that contains student characteristics and home addresses with a commonly available digital geographic database (TIGER) to create a geographic accounting table of student residences by census blocks. Progression rates of students from one grade to the next are estimated for each small area by aggregating student residences, by grade, for a 3 yr period over a larger area (the modifiable spatial filter) centered on the small area. The size of the filter area depends on the geographical distribution of students, a user-specified student threshold value, and a maximum distance constraint. The progression rates are applied to the student population of each census block in a grade-cohort component projection model. Projections of the number of students enrolled in each grade for any defined geographical area are made by aggregating the projections for the census blocks in the area. We show that results using this method are consistent with those from the same model applied to school attendance area enrollment data, whereas results using the small-area data without the filter are not. This result supports our conclusion that the method is reliable for making grade-specific enrollment projections, for which past enrollment data do not exist, such as those for new schools or for revised attendance areas. We describe the techniques used to link the student information system to the digital map, compute the spatial filter statistics efficiently, and make projections for new school attendance areas. We have used the modifiable spatial filter method for projecting student populations and modifying attendance area boundaries in two Iowa school districts.
TL;DR: In this article, the applicability and advantages of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to the decision process are investigated, using it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods, 1990-1991 and 1995-1997.
Abstract: Companies operating in international markets must be able to evaluate the potential market attractiveness of developing countries with which they may wish to do business. To make decisions about where to go for business, they have access to much information from specialized sources and from statistical data supplied by international institutions. Such vast and diverse information is rarely used in a systematic way in the management decision processes. When it is used, the process is often inadequately formalized. The available information generally deals with economic factors, while in the present international arena, judgments about politics must also be taken into account. This paper investigates the applicability and advantages of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to this decision process, using it to create maps of joint economic progress and political stability in a number of countries for two time periods, 1990–1991 and 1995–1997.
TL;DR: The marginal practice cost of five outputs—office visits, “other visits”, operations/assists, laboratory tests, and relative value unit (RVU)-weighted diagnostic tests—is estimated using a multiproduct, quadratic cost function for samples of single-specialty, self-employed general/family practitioner and general surgeon practices.
Abstract: The Medicare Fee Schedule treatment of physician practice expenses has been criticized for not being resource-based. Proposals to reform the methodology for allocating practice expenses to specific services depend critically on accurate measures of the marginal cost of physician outputs. We estimate the marginal practice cost of five outputs—office visits, “other visits”, operations/assists, laboratory tests, and relative value unit (RVU)-weighted diagnostic tests—using a multiproduct, quadratic cost function for samples of single-specialty, self-employed general/family practitioner and general surgeon practices.
TL;DR: A knowledge-based system (KBS) approach to the faculty-course assignment problem is presented that is believed to offer advantages over previous mathematical scheduling methods and demonstrates that KBSs can be an effective tool for faculty- Course scheduling.
Abstract: This paper considers the problem of assigning faculty to courses at a university. Traditional operations research methods emphasizing the use of mathematical models suffer several shortcomings, including poor handling of qualitative data, undue abstraction from the problem, difficulty of problem formulation, and the combinatorial problem. This paper presents a knowledge-based system (KBS) approach to the faculty-course assignment problem that is believed to offer advantages over previous mathematical scheduling methods. A variety of criteria such as course preferences by faculty, scheduled course offerings, faculty teaching load and maximum number of days an instructor teaches per week are considered in developing the model. This KBS was applied to a department in a major university, and real-world faculty-course assignment examples were used to illustrate the model's potential. The KBS's recommendations were subsequently validated by the course coordinators. The system demonstrates that KBSs can be an effective tool for faculty-course scheduling.
TL;DR: In this paper, a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model is proposed to correct for the attendant externalities of international trade in toxic waste, where each country imposes a tax on waste stored within its jurisdiction, at a rate equal to the expected marginal damage to its own citizens, and then distributes the tax revenue to each country in such a way that every household is fully compensated for the impending toxic risk.
Abstract: There is concern that developing countries are victimized by international trade in toxic wastes. A Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model demonstrates that a Pigouvian tax on untreated wastes can correct for the attendant externalities. When each country imposes the tax on waste stored within its jurisdiction, at a rate equal to the expected marginal damage to its own citizens, and then distributes the tax revenue to its own citizens in such a way that every household is fully compensated for the impending toxic risk, then all citizens in all countries benefit from free trade in toxic waste.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide both a structure and numerous examples of how the field of planning might develop, including principles of technological forecasting, the social organization of planning and the philosophy of technology.
Abstract: Planning is a technological enterprise that must also encompass technology as one of its major inputs. It is technological because its goal is to draw on whatever reservoirs of theory, data, experience and wisdom are necessary to achieve practical impact in real-world settings. Technology as an input is important because technological considerations have a profound impact on a wide variety of planning processes. With these assumptions as background, this article provides both a structure and numerous examples of how the field of planning might develop. Examples span a wide variety of technological activity, including health care, communication, infrastructure, social service and the environment. The structure outlined includes principles of technological forecasting, the social organization of planning and the philosophy of technology.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors studied the provision of, and demand for, a public service when a private alternative is available and formalized the concept of the poverty trap, which occurs when access to the public service is of an all or nothing type.
Abstract: This paper studies the provision of, and demand for, a public service when a private alternative is available We link the concept of adequate resources for a public service to the availability of a private alternative, rather than to the public service's ability to meet total demand We also consider a situation where only part of the population has access to the state service (as is, for instance, the case with subsidised housing) and formalize the concept of the poverty trap, which occurs when access to the public service is of an all or nothing type
TL;DR: In this paper, non-linear programming is used to predict the likely impact of government policy on polytechnics in the UK, and the authors' decision to not make use of an objective function in the analysis is examined and justified.
Abstract: This paper offers an application of non-linear programming to the funding system for polytechnics in England. The proposed model is used to anticipate the likely impact of government policy on institutions. One novel feature of the model is the authors' decision to not make use of an objective function in the analysis. This decision is examined and justified. In particular, it is argued that, in this way, the application of non-linear programming can be extended as a descriptive tool in the social sciences.
TL;DR: In this article, the effect of VOLUME 7, 2019 voluntary export restriction (VER) on textile and steel industries was examined from both an instrumental framework (ARIMA Time Series Intervention Analysis) and an expressive framework (Stakeholder Analysis).
Abstract: The economic and political components of trade issues are usually analyzed separately. The “success” of a particular trade policy is then analyzed through a particular lens. In this paper, the effect that Voluntary Export Restraints (VERs) had on the textile and steel industries will be examined from both an instrumental framework (ARIMA Time Series Intervention Analysis) and expressive framework (Stakeholder Analysis) in order to capture the economic and political aspects of this policy.