Showing papers in "System Dynamics Review in 2021"
TL;DR: Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date, despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations.
Abstract: Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations with reliable testing data Cumulative cases and deaths through 22 December 2020 are estimated to be 7 03 and 1 44 times official reports, yielding an infection fatality rate (IFR) of 0 51 percent, which has been declining over time Absent adherence fatigue, cumulative cases would have been 47 percent lower Scenarios through June 2021 show that modest improvement in responsiveness could reduce cases and deaths by about 14 percent, more than the impact of vaccinating half of the population by that date Variations in responsiveness to risk explain two orders of magnitude difference in per-capita deaths despite reproduction numbers fluctuating around one across nations A public online simulator facilitates scenario analysis over the coming months ? 2021 System Dynamics Society
80 citations
TL;DR: Following this initial period of disruption, it is expected that many online or hybrid activities will continue to be used and, in some cases, may replace in-person interactions due to cost, time, convenience, and environmental concerns after the COVID-19 crisis has passed.
Abstract: Due to the COVID‐19 pandemic, it has become increasingly important and necessary to conduct research and teaching activities online. While many universities quickly started the transition to online teaching, most in‐person research activities were typically postponed. However, in order to not significantly delay research, researchers are increasingly seeking to conduct activities, such as workshops, in a virtual setting. Following this initial period of disruption, it is expected that many online or hybrid activities will continue to be used and, in some cases, may replace in‐person interactions due to cost, time, convenience, and environmental concerns after the COVID‐19 crisis has passed. Researchers and/or stakeholders are often geographically dispersed, which independently motivates the use of online or hybrid workshop activities.
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TL;DR: The authors found that additional supply chain level information (e.g., POS and inventory data) leads subjects to react less aggressively to changes in their own inventory and to pay more attention to the supply line of orders placed.
Abstract: Previous research on the bullwhip effect shows that information visibility – Point-Of-Sale (POS) data or supply chain partner inventory data – can reduce the amplification of orders in a supply chain. This study compiles and analyzes the data from two previous experiments with the Beer Game (Croson and Donohue, 2003, 2006) to gain insight on the specific mechanisms that decrease order amplification. By structuring the data as a panel and using a fixed-effects estimation model, we find that additional supply chain level information (e.g., POS and inventory data) leads subjects to react less aggressively to changes in their own inventory and to pay more attention to the supply line of orders placed. Furthermore, our analysis shows that such effects are more pronounced for upstream subjects. Our findings provide insight into the role that additional supply chain information play on subjects’ orders in the Beer Game.
2 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors examine existing and no longer existing online Peer Mentorship Group (PMG) by looking into peer mentorship experiences of their members, leaders, and senior faculty advisers, using a blend of survey and interview methods.
Abstract: In this note, we examine existing and no longer existing online SD PMGs by looking into peer mentorship experiences of their members, leaders, and senior faculty advisers, using a blend of survey and interview methods. Overall, respondents mainly mentioned their positive experiences of being PMG members. Participation was particularly beneficial for gaining SD knowledge and for feeling connected to other people who use SD. Importance of participating in PMG was scored high among respondents from both existing and no longer existing groups. Multiple respondents characterized their PMG membership as being crucial for advancing in their careers or for maintaining interest in SD. However, we noticed some differences between the responses of members from existing and no longer existing groups. Results indicated that in existing groups there might be a larger number of highly motivated members to whom participation is extremely important (Likert score 10). Results also indicated that people in existing groups developed friendships with some of their peers. Those could be the forces that helped existing PMGs to maintain their momentum. Furthermore, members of existing groups presented more diverse topics, focusing also on general SD topics, and not explicitly on their own work. Interestingly, some existing groups had even worked on scientific publications together. Last, no longer existing groups more frequently reported problems related to scheduling and participation. They indicated a need for both increased responsibility from an individual who could act as a leader in planning the meetings, and also for group responsibility, i.e. showing up and participating in the meetings.