Showing papers in "Systems Research and Behavioral Science in 1987"
TL;DR: This paper surveys relevant concepts, problems, theorists, research, and works in progress within a perspective of the challenge of survival at a critical juncture in the evolution of the authors' species.
Abstract: This article deals with all levels of both living (biological, psychological, sociological, and cultural) and nonliving (physical, chemical, and mathematical) systems.
The idea of applying the natural scientific self-organizing, evolutionary, and non-equilibrium or “chaos” theory associated with the names of Prigogine and others to world problems of impending social, political, economic, and ecological “chaos” is gaining ground. The leap from natural science to social action, however, is impossible without considerable attention to the main intervening step: the development of “chaos”-equivalent, evolution-, systems-, and action-oriented social theory. Construction of such theory requires understanding by social scientists of natural scientific “chaos” theory as well as their own “chaos” theoretical heritage, of natural scientists of the now seemingly far distant social problem-solving potential of their nonequilibrium and self-organizing theories, and of both natural and social scientists of how advancement at both levels could help gain a peaceful as well as humanistic “order out of chaos” in this troubled world of ours. This paper surveys relevant concepts, problems, theorists, research, and works in progress within a perspective of the challenge of survival at a critical juncture in the evolution of our species.
161 citations
TL;DR: The basic units of this model (goals, sensor, comparator, decision mechanism, and effector mechanism) are explained, system states and boundary conditions are specified, and propositions based on the model are developed.
Abstract: In this paper, a control theory model of human motivation is described. The basic units of this model (goals, sensor, comparator, decision mechanism, and effector mechanism) are explained, system states and boundary conditions are specified, and propositions based on the model are developed. The consequences of controlling different parameters are discussed and extensions of the model to interpersonal tasks are suggested. The practical advantages of this model for understanding the operation of management systems are discussed and areas needing further research are identified.
161 citations
TL;DR: A methodology called GEMCAT is presented, using the cusp model for expositional convenience, which allows the traditional canonical catastrophe model variables to be described as latent constructs of univariate or multivariate observable variable sets.
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology for empirically estimating any specified univariate or multivariate catastrophe theory model. As such, the paper is appropriate for those interested in modeling virtually all levels of living systems and subsystems which can be described by catastrophe theory models, as well as those interested in testing cross-level hypotheses about such systems and subsystems. The lack of such flexible estimation procedures has limited the potential application of catastrophe modeling in the social and behavioral sciences. More specifically, a methodology called GEMCAT is presented, using the cusp model for expositional convenience, which allows the traditional canonical catastrophe model variables to be described as latent constructs of univariate or multivariate observable variable sets. A Monte Carlo analysis is presented demonstrating the performance of the methodology under various conditions. Furthermore, it is shown how this method is superior to the common practice of generating univariate composites (e.g., by summing, averaging, etc.) which has been traditionally used because of either computational convenience or the lack of such a methodology.
92 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a behavioral model of trend expectation formation is presented, which assumes expectations about the growth rate of a quantity are formed adaptively from the recent growth rates of the input variable itself, and the model is tested directly against actual forecasts in two quite different domains: short-term expectations of inflation and long-term energy demand forecasts.
Abstract: The nature and rationality of expectations are hotly debated in economics and management science. Expectations are usually portrayed in behavioral simulation models and system dynamics as adaptive learning processes. This paper presents a behavioral model of trend expectation formation. The model assumes expectations about the growth rate of a quantity are formed adaptively from the recent growth rate of the input variable itself. The model is then tested directly against actual forecasts in two quite different domains: short-term expectations of inflation and long-term energy demand forecasts. In both cases the model replicates the evolution of the expectations quite well over extended time periods. The results support the use of adaptive expectations and trend extrapolation. The results also suggest the presence of additional judgmental heuristics which can have dynamic and policy significance. In particular, there seem to be substantial conservatisms in both inflation expectations and energy demand forecasts: forecasters systematically underestimate the growth rate of the input. Such conservatisms are consistent with the empirical literature on judgment and decision making. The results show it is possible to test the expectation formation processes assumed in behavioral simulation models; implications for use of adaptive expectations in behavioral models when empirical data are unavailable are also discussed.
56 citations
TL;DR: This paper deals with “rationality” as a fuzzy property, by suggesting a definition of “fuzzy opinion” different from the classical fuzzy preference relation, and suggests the possibility of proving the existence of rules with non-complete irrationality.
Abstract: This paper deals with living systems at the individual and group levels. In particular, fuzzy set theory is applied to study Arrow's paradox in aggregation preference problems: such impossibility theorems are based on using the Aristotelian logic; thus Lukasievicz's censure to sciences founded on that logic is also fully applicable. In this paper we deal with “rationality” as a fuzzy property, by suggesting a definition of “fuzzy opinion” different from the classical fuzzy preference relation. Whenever this definition is applied, Arrow's theorems are deemed as results about the impossibility of complete rationality. Nevertheless, the possibility of proving the existence of rules with non-complete irrationality is revealed
42 citations
TL;DR: The metatheory is composed of three sets of rules: the criteria for hierarchies, the properties of the open biological system, and criteria for the final conditions of open biological systems as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The general designations of neural systems and their levels of organization as presently applied in the neurosciences are described as being at variance with rigorous systems thinking. It is proposed that the rule-driven use of systems terminology and hierarchies would facilitate investigations of neural functioning in the natural case. General systems theory with its major propositions for hierarchical organization, open systems, and equifinality, is presented as providing the guidelines for developing systems-type theories for neuroscience investigations. General systems theory as metatheory is also used to evaluate hierarchies and systems designations in the neurosciences as these concepts are now applied in theories, models, and research. The metatheory is comprised of three sets of rules: the criteria for hierarchies; the properties of the open biological system; the criteria for the final conditions of open biological systems. The notion of the discovery of neural systems is contrasted with the apparent design of systems as frequently practiced by neuroscientists. The metatheory is summarized as directions for developing theories and as questions directed toward any neuroscience theory proposing levels of organization and systems.
28 citations
TL;DR: The relevant literatures in psychology and Al are reviewed and a resolution of the paradox of simple versus complex decision-making models is offered.
Abstract: Modeling the decision-making processes of human experts has been studied by scientists who call themselves psychologists and by scientists who say they are students of artificial intelligence (Al). The psychological research literature suggests that experts' decision-making processes can be adequately captured by simple mathematical models. On the other hand, those in Al who are preoccupied with human expertise maintain that complex computer models, in the form of expert systems, are required to do justice to those same processes. The resultant paradox of simple versus complex decision-making models is investigated here. The relevant literatures in psychology and Al are reviewed and, based on these findings, a resolution of the paradox is offered.
24 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the multivariate response simulation model is defined and some historical solutions from the literature are discussed, including the statistical rationale for the use of these techniques, the advantage of using these methods in simulation output analysis, and a comprehensive survey of the simulation literature which has applied these procedures to date.
Abstract: The multiple response problem in simulation analysis refers to the statistical design and analysis of simulation experiments which output more than a single response variable, or measure of effectiveness. In this article, the multivariate response simulation model is defined and some historical solutions from the literature are discussed. Recent research into the use of multivariate statistical methods in simulation analysis is reviewed, including the statistical rationale for the use of these techniques, the advantage of using these methods in simulation output analysis, and a comprehensive survey of the simulation literature which has applied these procedures to date. The concept of multivariate response simulation metamodel, an auxiliary, analytic model which serves to aid in the interpretation of the simulation model, is also presented.
18 citations
TL;DR: A living systems process analysis of an urban hospital and its constituent departments and the relationship between a hospital department's performance of the living system's processes and its effectiveness is discussed.
Abstract: This article presents a study of a living system at the level of the organization. Specifically, it reviews a living systems process analysis of an urban hospital and its constituent departments. The relationship between a hospital department's performance of the living system's processes and its effectiveness is discussed. The general findings of the study and recommendations emanating from the analysis are included.
17 citations
TL;DR: A metatheoretical framework for understanding evolutionary systems (systems that develop in ways that increase their own variety), which concerns both living and nonliving systems, and proposes a metahierarchy of hierarchical systems.
Abstract: This paper develops a metatheoretical framework for understanding evolutionary systems (systems that develop in ways that increase their own variety). The framework addresses shortcomings seen in other popular systems theories. It concerns both living and nonliving systems, and proposes a metahierarchy of hierarchical systems. Thus, it potentially addresses systems at all descriptive levels. We restrict our definition of system to that of a core system whose parts have a different ontological status than the system, and characterize the core system in terms of five global properties: minimal length interval, minimal time interval, system cycle, total receptive capacity, and system potential. We propose two principles through the interaction of which evolutionary systems develop. The Principle of Combinatorial Expansion describes how a core system realizes its developmental potential through a process of progressive differentiation of the single primal state up to a limit stage. The Principle of Generative Condensation describes how the components of the last stage of combinatorial expansion condense and become the environment for and components of new, enriched systems. The early evolution of the Universe after the "big bang" is discussed in light of these ideas as an example of the application of the framework.
16 citations
TL;DR: In this article, living system process analysis was used to assess the effectiveness of an urban public transit authority in terms of information and matter/energy processing and found significant differences between groups on many living system processes, and revealed problems which required remedial action.
Abstract: This article examines how living systems theory can be applied at the level of the organization to assess the effectiveness of an urban public transit authority. Living systems process analysis was utilized to survey and analyze department ratings of information and matter/energy processing. Evaluations were compared among departments which rated high and low on effectiveness criteria, such as meeting goals and objectives. Results showed significant differences between groups on many living system processes, and revealed problems which required remedial action. The methodology and findings of the study are discussed.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors used catastrophe theory to structure the conflict helix and tested the model on the annual conflict and cooperation between India and Pakistan, 1948 to 1973, and the results are generally positive and encouraging.
Abstract: Macro social field theory has undergone extensive development and testing since the 1960s. One of these has been the articulation of an appropriate conceptual micro model--called the conflict helix--for understanding the process from conflict to cooperation and vice versa. Conflict and cooperation are viewed as distinct equilibria of forces in a social field; the movement between these equilibria is a jump, energized by a gap between social expectations and power, and triggered by some minor event. Quite independently, there also has been much recent application of catastrophe theory to social behavior, but usually without a clear substantive theory and lacking empirical testing. This paper uses catastrophe theory--namely, the butterfly model--mathematically to structure the conflict helix. The social field framework and helix provide the substantive interpretation for the catastrophe theory; and catastrophe theory provides a suitable mathematical model for the conflict helix. The model is tested on the annual conflict and cooperation between India and Pakistan, 1948 to 1973. The results are generally positive and encouraging.
TL;DR: Four criteria are suggested under which supplementing global modeling efforts with computational models seems to make sense, and an emphasis on intentional inferencing of key political actors for the common emphasis of national economic rationality is the central change leading to this improvement.
Abstract: Many global modeling efforts have been criticized for not paying enough attention to political decision making. Computational models, based on much of the methodology developed by scholars in the “artificial intelligence” community have been utilized in recent years to represent some aspects of political decision making.
Could intellectual progress be made by combining some of the features of these heretofore disparate academic strands? Answering that question is the first emphasis of this paper. Four criteria are suggested under which supplementing global modeling efforts with computational models seems to make sense. The criteria are the identity of the political unit being modeled, the depth of the modeler's understanding of the political unit's problem-solving behavior, the question of whether the political unit can be reasonably characterized as exhibiting an identifiable general mode of problem solving, and whether there is sufficient information available to provide for a validity test.
A mechanism-elucidating model of the U.S. congressional energy research and development decision making is presented in the second portion of the paper. Programmed in LISP, the model is presented to be suggestive of the type of efforts which could fruitfully supplement global models. The intentional inferencing procedures through which a “modal” and two other significant representative members of the U.S. Congress decide how to vote on legislation in the area of funding energy research and development is the subject matter of the LISP-based example. The model is tested for the case of 1985 congressional legislation concerning funding of the Synthetic Fuels Program, and is supported. Conclusions of the model are compared with those typically input to a global model, and the computational model is found to be more accurate because it suggests lower levels of U.S. energy research and development funding. The substitution of an emphasis on intentional inferencing of key political actors for the common emphasis of national economic rationality is the central change leading to this improvement.
Levels dealt with in this article include organization, group, society, and supranational system. The decider is the major subsystem involved.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on findings from an empirical study of thirty autonomous work groups, which deals with systems at the group level, particularly their producer and decider subsystems.
Abstract: This paper reports on findings from an empirical study of thirty autonomous work groups, It deals with systems at the group level, particularly their producer and decider subsystems. Each work group operated within the same organization, making the same kind of product using the identical process. This study attempts to explain the differences between high productive and low productive autonomous work groups. The focus is on two key areas of worker perceptions: satisfaction with the job and perceptions of work group leadership. Results show the importance of establishing and communicating a policy of promotional opportunities to reward high performance. Leadership dimensions (superior orientation and consideration) that discriminate between high and low production groups are identified. These findings have implications in the selection and training of team leaders and the management of autonomous work groups.
TL;DR: The main contention of as discussed by the authors is that Schelling's presentation is ambiguous between two different types of diagrams, and confusion between them is liable to mislead interpretation of binary choice situations, and therefore it is difficult to distinguish between them.
Abstract: In his work, Micromotives and Macrobehavior, T. C. Schelling introduces a useful diagram for representing binary choice games with externalities. The main contention of this article is that Schelling's presentation is ambiguous between two different types of diagram. Although superficially similar, the diagrams are conceptually quite distinct, and confusion between them is liable to mislead interpretation of binary choice situations.
A complete classification of two-person games is given, with some brief discussion of equilibrium points, and the role of communication in reaching those points. Generalization to the n-person case is noted where it is straightforward. A case is argued for a strong connection between choice theory and choice situations. The aim is to render a useful construction clearer and more accessible.
TL;DR: In this paper, it is argued that the restrictions of living system evolution lead to the proliferation of natural systems which are capable of being modified only to small degrees without negative consequences, leaving fundamental modes of operation intact.
Abstract: The ways in which living and artificial systems are modified over time are compared in order to present a case for the plausibility of the existence of a general system of behavior, that is, a basic system of behavior, corresponding to the decider subsystem, which is capable of being shared by organisms of differing complexity. It is argued that the restrictions of living system evolution lead to the proliferation of natural systems which are capable of being modified only to small degrees without negative consequences, leaving fundamental modes of operation intact. This reasoning is then applied to possible general behavioral systems. Several possible simple systems are suggested. These systems are then compared to current theories within psychology, arousal-reduction and optimal-arousal theory, and ways in which these theories can be used to predict complex social behavior are demonstrated.
TL;DR: The authors argued that van Gigch's use of the metalinguistic framework is the same as the one described in this paper, although there is a profound epistemological disagreement: he believes that he is viewing a world which exists independently of the ways we build its facticity; I am concerned with the symbol system with which social reality is constructed.
Abstract: Except for a few misunderstandings that I will try to dispel, Dr. van Gigch's use of the metalinguistic framework is, of course, the same I refer to in my paper. Albeit there is a profound epistemological disagreement: he believes that he is viewing a world which exists independently of the ways we build its facticity; I am concerned with the symbol system (Newell & Simon, 1976) with which social reality is constructed (Clegg, 1983, 124).
TL;DR: Informatic philosophy of behavioral sciences as discussed by the authors, Federico Frischknecht's article "The Informatic Philosophy of Behavioral Sciences" (Vol. 31, pps. 162-172) discusses disagreements with the above-named author's categorization and hierarchy of sciences and metasciences.
Abstract: This article offers critical comments about Federico Frischknecht's article “Informatic Philosophy of Behavioral Sciences,” (Vol. 31, pps. 162-172). It covers disagreements with the above-named author's categorization and hierarchy of sciences and metasciences, and raises questions in connection with (a) his comparison of descriptive and prescriptive systems; (b) his use of linguistic levels; (c) alleged differences between natural and behavioral sciences; (d) alleged differences between induction and deduction; and (e) his labeling of metatheories.
TL;DR: Numerical taxonomic techniques are shown to be valuable in the operationalization of living systems theory as mentioned in this paper, which provides the theoretical foundation for a number of important operational decisions routinely faced by cluster analysts.
Abstract: Numerical taxonomic techniques are shown to be valuable in the operationalization of living systems theory. Living systems theory in turn provides the theoretical foundation for a number of important operational decisions routinely faced by cluster analysts. Among the points of congruence are the choice of operational taxonomic unit, the choice of variables, number of hierarchies, as well as number of clusters. Living systems theory specifies 19 subsystems for seven hierarchical levels, and numerical taxonomy facilitates operationalization of these principles.
TL;DR: In this article, taxonomic techniques are advocated for use to help identify the (optimal) hierarchy of certain types of systems in a universe and to clarify some of the vagueness surrounding operationalizing the concept of a living system.
Abstract: Numerical taxonomic techniques are advocated for use to help identify the (optimal) hierarchy of certain types of systems in a universe. Such an approach should help to clarify some of the vagueness surrounding operationalizing the concept of a living system. More precise specification of the boundaries and relationships among systems is also possible.
TL;DR: This article provides a method, based on general living systems theory (GLST), for reclassifying accounting data according to various forms of matter-energy flows.
Abstract: In much the same manner as science, modern accounting information systems are concerned with statements about measurable attributes, data simplification, prediction, and history. These in-place systems can provide a massive data base for various sorts of scientific investigations into living systems at the group, community, society, and supranational system levels. This article discusses these ideas and provides a method, based on general living systems theory (GLST), for reclassifying accounting data according to various forms of matter-energy flows.
TL;DR: It is demonstrated, in living systems at the organization level, including the total system and all subsystems, that even with accurate and timely information there are problems that can strongly bias feedback.
Abstract: A key factor for effective system management and evaluation of decision processes is accurate and timely feedback. It is through feedback one detects deviation from reference points thereby allowing for more effective system maintenance and performance. This paper demonstrates, in living systems at the organization level, including the total system and all subsystems, that even with accurate and timely information there are problems that can strongly bias feedback. Two models, a Partial Information Model and a Full Information Model, are developed and compared to predict the bias effects. A final section of the paper considers how bias in the feedback process may be corrected.
TL;DR: A general theory of action provides a notation in which the effects of possible individual acts can be expressed and a method for probability calculations of the dynamics of systems of interacting actors; this article develops the foundation for such a theory.
Abstract: A general theory of action provides, first, a notation in which the effects of possible individual acts can be expressed and, second, a method for probability calculations of the dynamics of systems of interacting actors; this article develops the foundation for such a theory.
A framework is presented, which allows the effects of human actions to be described. The presentation is sufficiently general that other kinds of event can also be accommodated.
The framework uses a simple system of modal logic, with five axioms, to define what is meant by an effect of an event or act at any level of living system or in nonliving systems. It is proposed that, in empirical studies, the significant types of act and event should be characterized by listing their effects in the notation which the framework provides.
The application of the framework to human acts is described; and a diagrammatic method to represent the effects of these acts is given. It is shown that there are eleven fundamentally different possible relationships between acts and their effects.
For each of the eleven basic kinds of effect, an approximate formula is given to relate the expected frequency of that effect to the overall characteristics of a state of affairs within a system.
The use of the framework to draw global conclusions from local information is illustrated by showing how approximate population densities may be calculated from mechanisms for birth and death described in terms of the framework.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors extended the original gain-loss model of decision making by Camilleri and Berger (1967) and extended it to include a few selected utilities in the theoretical specification of the process underlying the selection of choice alternatives.
Abstract: The gain-loss model of decision making by individual human beings was developed by Camilleri and Berger (1967) and extended by Camilleri and Conner (1976) to explore the possibility of including a few selected utilities in the theoretical specification of the process underlying the selection of choice alternatives. The research reported here extends their original set of utilities. In addition, the research investigates problems in their original theory associated with the estimation of a constant a, representing the subjective probability of a correct response. The results of our study give additional support to the gain-loss theory and to the expectation states theory, which is the broader context within which the gain-loss extension was developed. Our results also indicate the need for the reconceptualization of the subjective probability of a correct response.