A Statistical Approach to the Development of Progress Plans Utilizing Bayesian Methods and Expert Judgment

TLDR: In this paper, a methodology for progress plan development is proposed, which involves the elicitation of expert judgments to formulate probability distributions that reflect the expected values/estimates used to establish progress plans.

Abstract: : The development of progress plans for each identified technical performance parameter (TPP) is a critical element of technical performance measurement. The measured values of TPPs are referred to as technical performance measures (TPMs). These terms are used interchangeably; however, TPMs more directly reflect how technical progress and technical risk are measured and evaluated. Progress plans, or planned performance profiles, are crucial to effective risk assessment; however, methods for developing these plans are subjective in nature, have no statistical basis or criteria as a rule, and are not sufficiently addressed in literature. The methodology proposed herein for progress plan development will involve the elicitation of expert judgments to formulate probability distributions that reflect the expected values/estimates used to establish progress plans.