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An estimation of the effects of Brexit on trade and migration
Rodolfo G. Campos,Jacopo Timini +1 more
- Iss: 12, pp 1-19
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In this article, the authors used a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration, and found that trade flows are predicted to drop by 30% and migration by close to 25%.Abstract:
espanolEste documento utiliza un modelo de gravedad para estimar los efectos del brexit en dos dimensiones: el comercio de bienes y la migracion. Simulamos dos escenarios: 1) no acuerdo, con reversion a las reglas de la OMC y sin trato especial para los migrantes; 2) firma de un acuerdo bilateral de libre comercio (TLC). Segun nuestros resultados, el brexit puede tener efectos negativos importantes sobre el comercio y los flujos migratorios entre la UE y el Reino Unido. En el escenario de la OMC, se preve que los flujos comerciales disminuyan en un 30 % y la migracion en cerca de un 25 %. Si el Reino Unido y la UE firman un acuerdo similar a un TLC (que no incluye la libre movilidad de la mano de obra), los efectos negativos sobre el comercio se reducen, aunque no hay una diferencia significativa en terminos de migraciones con respecto al escenario de la OMC. EnglishThis paper uses a gravity model approach to estimate the effects of Brexit in two dimensions: trade in goods and migration. We simulate two scenarios: 1) no agreement with reversion to WTO rules and no special treatment for migrants; 2) signature of a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). According to our results, Brexit may have large negative effects on trade and migration flows between the EU and the UK. In the WTO scenario, trade flows are predicted to drop by 30% and migration by close to 25%. If the UK and the EU sign an FTA-like agreement (which does not include free mobility of labour), the negative effects on trade are lessened although there is no significant difference in terms of migration with respect to the WTO scenario.read more
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Regional Trading Blocs in the world economic system, reseñado por Antonio Ortiz-Mena L.N.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explore whether the world economy is breaking up into regional trading and currency blocs centred on the European Community, Japan and the United States, and conclude with an analysis of how trends in regional economic integration can be used as building blocks for a stronger multilateral system.
A highway across the atlantic? trade and welfare effects of the eu-mercosur agreement
Jacopo Timini,Francesca Viani +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyze the EU-Mercosur agreement and predict its effects on trade and welfare using a general equilibrium structural gravity model, and conclude that the agreement is likely to have a positive impact on both the comercio and the bienestar of both regional blocs.
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An Application of Dynamic Factor Models to Nowcast Regional Economic Activity in Spain
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Financial Innovation for a Sustainable Economy
Andrés Alonso,J. Manuel Marqués +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors reviewed various initiatives under way in the private financial sector to introduce the variable "sustainability" into its decision-making process in order to achieve a balance sheet with a smaller carbon footprint (transformation of stock) and to develop a business strategy aligned with responsible investment principles and international standards.
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Assessing the macroeconomic impact of Brexit through trade and migration channels
Antoine Berthou,Sophie Haincourt,Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve,Ángel Estrada,Moritz A. Roth,Alexander Kadow +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, a trabajo conjunto de Bundesbank, Banque de France and Banco de Espana analyzes the impact of Brexit on the UK economy and its economic partners.
References
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