Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks and procyclicality of the new Basel capital requirements
Jacob A. Bikker,Haixia Hu +1 more
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The authors analyzed the interaction between business cycles and banks over the past two decades for 26 industrial countries and found that profits of banks move up and down with the business cycle, allowing for accumulation of capital in boom periods.Abstract:
The proposed risk sensitive minimum requirements of the new Basel capital accord have raised concerns about possible (acceleration of) procyclical behaviour of banking, which might threaten macroeconomic stability. This article analyses the interaction between business cycles and banks over the past two decades for 26 industrial countries. As expected, profits appear to move up and down with the business cycle, allowing for accumulation of capital in boom periods. Provisioning for credit losses rise when the cycle falls, but less so when net income of banks is relatively high, which reduces procyclicality. Lending fluctuates with the business cycle too, but appears to be driven by demand rather than by supply factors such as (shortage of) capital, which contradicts the assumptions underlying capital crunch theory. All in all, over the last decades, distortion caused by procyclical behaviour of banks has been limited, banking crises excepted. JEL Codes: G21, G28, E32read more
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Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda
Ross Levine,Ross Levine +1 more
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Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda
Ross Levine,Ross Levine +1 more
TL;DR: The authors argue that the preponderance of theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence suggests a positive, first-order relationship between financial development and economic growth, and that the development of financial markets and institutions is a critical and inextricable part of the growth process and away from the view that the financial system is an inconsequential sidehow, responding passively to economic growth.
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Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission
TL;DR: The credit channel theory of monetary policy transmission holds that informational frictions in credit markets worsen during tight money periods and the resulting increase in the external finance premium enhances the effects of monetary policies on the real economy as discussed by the authors.