1
Thisistheprepeerreviewedversionofthefollowingarticle:Heeks,R.“Do
informationandcommunicationtechnologies(ICTs)contributetodevelopment?”,
JournalofInternationalDevelopment,22(5),625640,2010,whichhasbeen
publishedinfinal format:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jid.1716/abstract
DoInfor mationandCommunicationT echnologies
(ICTs)Contributet oDevelopment?
RichardHeeks
Introduction
Everyyear,developingandtransitionaleconomiesspendinexcessofUS$800bnon
informationandcommunicationtechnologies(Heeks2009a).EvenAfrica,the
world'spoorestcontinentwaslikely tospendoverUS$60bnin2010(WITSA2008):
theequivalentofaroundUS$60perhead. Such percapitafiguresareeasily
superseded:thoseoutsidetherichestquartilewhoownmobilephonesinAfricaspend
1127percentofmonthlyincomeonthem(Gillwald&Stork2008).Forexample,in
ruralTanzania,averagespendisUS$22permonth;some20%oftotalincomeand
suchthataroundhalfreport"theysometimessubstituteimportantneeds(e.g.
education,buyingfood,andclothes)formobilephoneownership/usage"(Mpogoleet
al2008:7).
Muchofthisexpenditurewillfinditswayfromdevelopingtodevelopedcountries;
thelatterbeinghometomostoftheworld'sICTmultinationals.Conversely,ICT
relateddevelopmentandinvestmentfundsflowfromNorthtoSouth.TheWorld
BankGroup investsaroundUS$800mperyearinspecificloansandguaranteeson
ICTsanddevelopment,andUS$11.5bnperyearonprojectswith significantICT
components(WorldBank2009a).PrivatesectorinvestmentinAfricaonmobile
telephonyalonerunsataboutUS$10bnperyear(Heeks2009a).
Fromtheindividualthroughtheorganisationtothenationandbeyond,then,huge
sumsofmoneyarebeingspentonICTs.Butwhatisthecontributionofallthis
expendituretodevelopment?
Thatcanbeansweredincertaintermsfairlyeasily,ifweseeinfrastructural
developmentasafundamentalpartofbroaderdevelopment,andICTasa
fundamentalpartofinfrastructure. In1998, oneofevery100inhabitantsina
developingcountrywasanInternetuser(ITU2010).By2008,thatfigurewasnearer
toasixthofthepopulation –15per100– witha21percentannualgrowthrate. The
riseformobilephoneshasbeenevengreater: thenumberofsubscriptionswas
equivalentto2percentofthedevelopingworld'spopulationin1998(ibid).Tenyears
laterin2008,thatfigurehadrisento55percent,witha26percentannualgrowthrate.
Estimatessuggestthatactualownershipofmobilesmightbearoundthreequartersof
thesubscriptionrates(duetolapsedandmultiplesubscriptions),butthatactualusage
mightinturnbetwicethatfigure(duetosharedusageofmobiles)(Heeks2009b).
Theseestimatessuggestusageratesofmobilesin excessof80percentofthe
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populationofdevelopingcountries;afiguresupportedbyfielddatafrom thelowest
incomegroupinasampleofAsiancountriessuggesting95percentofadultshad
madeatleastonephonecallinthepreviousthreemonths(deSilvaetal2008).
SothedevelopmentcontributionofICTinvestmentintermsoftechnological
infrastructure,diffusionandevenusagehasbeendramatic. Thereareofcourse
enormousinequalitiesthatremain. Accessinequalitiesoflocation,age,gender,
educationand–oftenunderpinningallfourothers –income;havenotgoneaway.
Thekidsgrowingupas"digitalnatives"insuburbanBangalorearefarremovedfrom
theircounterpartsinthe"bitlessdeserts"ofremoteruralAfrica.Yeteventhese
blanksonthemaparefastbeingcolouredin:itisestimatedthat,by2013,over90%
ofAfrica'spopulationwillbecoveredbythemobilenetwork(Denton2008).
BeyondInfrastructure:TheICT4DValueChain
Digitaltechnologieshavethereforespreadveryrapidlyintodevelopingcountries,
leadingtoasituationthatlooksverydifferentfromjustonedecadeago. Itseems
reasonabletopaintanoverallpictureinwhichtheInternetisincreasinglywidespread
indevelopingcountries;andmobilephonesareclosetoubiquitous.
ButinfrastructureandaccessareonlythestartingpointinunderstandingICTs'
contributiontodevelopment;theyareinputswhereasourrealattentionshouldbe
focusedonoutputs.
Tomaketheconnectionbetweenthetwo,anobviousdevicewouldbeavaluechain,
suchastheoneshowninFigure1(Heeks&Molla2009). Thisbuildsonastandard
input—process—outputmodeltocreateasequenceoflinkedICT4Dresourcesand
processes.Itcanbedividedintofourdomains:
· Readiness:thesystemicprerequisitesforanyICT4Dinitiative;boththe
foundationalprecursorsthatwemightconceptualisemainlyatthenationallevel
suchasICTinfrastructure,skillsandpolicy;andthemorespecificinputs(both
"hard"and"soft")thatfeedintoanyindividualinitiative.
· Availability:implementationof an ICT4Dinitiativeturnstheinputsintoasetof
tangibleICTdeliverables; typicalamongwhichmightbeatelecentre(with
publiclyaccessibleInternetconnectedPCs)ormobilephones.
· Uptake: theprocessesbywhichaccesstothetechnologyisturnedintoactual
usage;alsonotingthatkeyconcernsaroundthisprocessanditsabilityto
contributetodevelopmenthaverelatedto thesustainabilityofthisuseovertime,
and–forvariousinnovationsthatareprototyped– thepotentialoractualityof
scalingup(Walsham&Sahay2006).
· Impact:whichcanbedividedintothreesubelements:
o Outputs:themicrolevelbehaviouralchangesassociatedwith technologyuse.
o Outcomes:thewidercostsandbenefitsassociatedwith ICT.
o DevelopmentImpacts:thecontributionoftheICTtobroaderdevelopment
goals.
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Figure1:TheICT4DValueChain
Precursors
Datasystems
Legal
Institutional
Human
Technological
Leadership
Drivers/Demand
Inputs
Money
Labour
Technology
Valuesand
Motivations
Politicalsupport
Targets
Intermediates/
Deliverables
Locations(e.g.
telecentres)
ICTs(e.g.PC,
mobile)
Software
applications
Outputs
New
Communication
Patterns
New
Information&
Decisions
NewActions&
Transactions
Outcomes
Financial&
otherquantitative
benefits
Qualitative
benefits
Disbenefits
Development
Impacts
Publicgoals
(e.g.MDGs)
Strategy Implementation Adoption Use
Exogenous
Factors
READINESS
UPTAKE
IMPACT
AVAILABILITY
Sustainability
Scalability
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InterestinthesedomainsamongtheICTfordevelopmentcommunityhaschanged
overtime.Onewaytotracethisisthrough fourstagingposts:
· TheDigitalOpportunityTaskforce(DOTForce)arosefromthe2000G8summit
inOkinawa.In2001,itproducedits"DigitalOpportunitiesforAll"reportwhich
encompassedfourfocalareas(DOTForce2001).Three–readiness,connectivity
andhumancapacity –wererelatedonlytotheReadinessdomain;andone–
participationinenetworks–lookedmainlyatReadinessandAvailabilityissues.
· In2003,thefirstWorldSummitontheInformationSocietywasheldinGeneva.
Itsmainreportwas,tellingly,entitled"BuildingtheInformationSociety"(WSIS
2003)andnotsurprisinglythemainfocuswason buildingICTconnectionand
access;againlookingmostlyattheReadinessandAvailabilitydomains.
· ThesecondWorldSummitontheInformationSocietywasheldinTunisin2005.
Unlikeitspredecessor,itsagendadidstarttotalkaboutimpact(WSIS2005).It
stillhadastrongfocusonprecursorslikefinancingandgovernance,butit
includedadditionaldiscussionabouttheactualapplicationofICTs,thusstarting
toencompasstheUptakeandImpactdomains.
· ThelargestsubsequentmeetingwastheGK3eventinKualaLumpurattheendof
2007. Itwasshapedbytwelvemainsubthemes(Gerster&Weigel2007).
Analysingtheseshowsafairlyevenspreadacrossthefourdomains,thoughwith
Impactbynowthelargestsinglefocus,followedbyAvailability.
Therehasbeennosubsequentcomparablesingleeventintheareadrawingtogether
thousandsofparticipants;rather,agrowingnumberofsmallereventsdrawingseveral
hundreds.However,ausefulbellwetheristheInformationandCommunicationsfor
DevelopmentReportproducedbytheWorldBank.Inits2009edition,theratioof
mentionsof"readiness"to"impact"was1:35(WorldBank2009b).
Suchevidenceisbestseenasstrawsinthewindratherthandefinitive,butitdoes
suggestasimilarpatterntothatseeninotherareasofICTapplication(Heeks&Molla
2009),andsummarisedinFigure2.
Figure2:ChangingFocusofICT4DPrioritiesOverTime
Time
Readiness
Policy
Infrastructure
DigitalDivide
Uptake
Demand
Usage
UseDivide
Impact
MicroOutputs
Outcomes
DevelopmentContribution
Availability
Supply
Implementationand
Design
LevelofICT4D
Activity
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Whatevertheexactshapeofthegraph,itreflectstherelativelackofattentionthathas
beenpaidtoICTs'contributiontodevelopmentuntil quiterecently.Thishasledto
numerouscallsformoresuchattentiontobepaid(e.g.McNamara2003,Kenny2006,
Souter2007).Therelativelack,butrecentemergence,ofworkonthistopicisthe
mainimpetusforthisspecialPolicyArena.
AssessingICTs'ContributiontoDevelopment
TheobjectiverationaleforimpactassessmentofICTfordevelopmentinvestmentsis
thesameasonemightfindforanyinvestment(Heeks&Molla2009).Itwillbesome
combination of:a)retrospectiveachievement–posthocassessmentofwhathasbeen
achievedfrominvestmentstodate;b)prospectivepriorities–prehocassessmentof
futuredevelopmentprojectinvestments;c)accountability –enablingagenciestobe
heldtoaccountfortheirICT4Dspending.
TheparticularrationaleforICT4Dspecificallytobeevaluatedderivesinpartfrom
thelargeandgrowinglevelsofinvestmentnotedabove. Butitalsohasamore
politicalandsubjectiveimpetus:thehistoryofICT4D(seebox1)whichhascasta
longshadow,andthefeltneedforthosewithinthe"ICT4Dcommunity"toprovethe
valueoftheirwork tothe"developmentmainstream"
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.
Box1.A ShortHistoryofICT4D
Informationandcommunicationtechnology hasexperiencedaparticulardiffusion
cyclewithindevelopment;acyclethatcanbecharacterisedasheavyoverpromising
followedbynoticeableunderdelivery. Thisischaracteristicof theearlycourseof
eachdevelopment"silverbullet"thatemergeseveryfewyears(Healey2002,Waage
2010).ButICThasperhapsbeenanespeciallymarkedcase,launchedviaaseriesof
reportsandeventsthatwerestrongonpromiseandhype;reekingof"technology
boosterismandcyberutopianism"andseen asthetoolofNorthernprivatesector
firmsseekingnewmarketsfortheirgoods(Pieterse2009,seealsoWade2002).
Thiswasthenfollowedinquiterapidandrelativelywellpublicisedsuccessionby
reports oflittleusedorabandonedICTprojects;andbyoverallanalysesthat
somethinglikeonethirdofsuchprojectsweretotalfailures,somethinglikehalf were
partialfailures,andonlyasmallminoritysucceeded(Heeks2002).Suchratesof
failurearenotunusualforanytypeofchangeinitiative;especiallythosebasedonnew
technologies.AndtheyaroseinpartbecausethemainICT4Dmodel –therural
telecentre– wasonedrawnfromtheglobalNorthwhichincorporateddesign
assumptionsandrequirementsthatsignificantlymismatchedlocalrealitiesinthe
averagedevelopingcountryvillage(ibid.)
Whateverthereason,political damagewasdonebythelarge,readilyobservedand
relativelybrief gapbetweenhypeandreality.DonorsbeganmovingawayfromICT;
forexamplewiththeUK'sDepartmentforInternationalDevelopmentclosingits
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Talking privatelywithseniorICT4Dfiguresindevelopmentagencies,onefindstheirmainconcernis
thatthecaseforICTindevelopmenthasyettobemadetotheircolleagues,andneedstobemade.