Dynamic Modelling of the Cuban Missile Crisis

TLDR: The purpose of this paper is to present two techniques from the field of conflict analysis which permit the assessment of a wide variety of conflict situations.

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two techniques from the field of conflict analysis which permit the assessment of a wide variety of conflict situations. One method for modelling a conflict at a given point in time is the improved metagame analysis technique of Fraser and Hipel (1979a; 1983) which is a reformulation and extension of metagame analysis (Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania, 1969a; 1969b; Howard, 1971). Inherent advantages of the improved metagame method are that it produces more realistic results than traditional metagame analysis, it is easy to use in practice, and the practitioner does not have to know any of the underlying theory in order to employ the technique. The efficacy of the approach has been supported by a host of real-world applications (Fraser and Hipel, 1979a; 1983; Shupe et al., 1980; Wright et al., 1980; Fraser, 1981; Fraser et al., 1983; Takahashi et al., 1983; Savich et al., 1983; Kuhn et al., 1983; Meleskie et al., 1982; Stokes and Hipel, 1983). Furthermore, Kilgour et al. (1983) have clearly demonstrated from a theoretical viewpoint that the improved metagame analysis method can readily model a conflict with any finite number of players and options. A brief description of the method for applying the technique is presented in this paper through the modelling and analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. The interested reader should consult other references for the details of this technique of conflict analysis (Fraser and Hipel, 1979a; 1983). The second dynamic method called the stare transition form (Fraser,