Journal ArticleDOI
Gandalf’s solution to the Newcomb problem
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It is argued that BT gives the right verdict on the cases that seem to be counterexamples to CDT and EDT, and gives a prominent role to the notion of a “benchmark” for each state of nature, by comparison with which the value of the available options within states of nature are measured.Abstract:
This article proposes a new theory of rational decision, distinct from both causal decision theory (CDT) and evidential decision theory (EDT). First, some intuitive counterexamples to CDT and EDT are presented. Then the motivation for the new theory is given: the correct theory of rational decision will resemble CDT in that it will not be sensitive to any comparisons of absolute levels of value across different states of nature, but only to comparisons of the differences in value between the available options within states of nature; however, the correct theory will also resemble EDT in that it will rely on conditional probabilities (not unconditional probabilities). The new theory gives a prominent role to the notion of a “benchmark” for each state of nature, by comparison with which the value of the available options in that state of nature are measured, and so it has been called the Benchmark Theory (BT). It is argued that BT gives the right verdict on the cases that seem to be counterexamples to CDT and EDT. Finally, some objections to BT are considered and answered.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Decision-Theoretic Paradoxes as Voting Paradoxes
TL;DR: In contrast, the authors showed that in certain cases of conflict-medical Newcomb problems, both ET and CDT seem to get things right, while BT gets things wrong, while EDT seems to get it wrong.
Posted Content
Toward Idealized Decision Theory
Nate Soares,Benja Fallenstein +1 more
TL;DR: The shortcomings of two standard formulations of decision theory are discussed, and it is demonstrated that they cannot be used to describe an idealized decision procedure suitable for approximation by artificial systems.
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Push the Button
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that if intuition is right about this case, then transitivity of preference must be violated in another, but this violation is untenable, and they conclude that CDT stands.
References
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Book
Social Choice and Individual Values
TL;DR: Saari as mentioned in this paper introduced Arrow's Theorem and founded the field of social choice theory in economics and political science, and introduced a new foreword by Nobel laureate Eric Maskin, introducing Arrow's seminal book to a new generation of students and researchers.
Journal ArticleDOI
Regret Theory: An Alternative Theory of Rational Choice Under Uncertainty
Graham Loomes,Robert Sugden +1 more
TL;DR: The main body of current economic analysis of choice under uncertainty is built upon a small number of basic axioms, formulated in slightly different ways by von Neumann and Morgenstern (I 947), Savage (1 954), and others.
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On Economic Inequality
Amartya Sen,James E. Foster +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, Amartya Sen relates the theory of welfare economics to the study of economic inequality and presents a systematic treatment of the conceptual framework as well as the practical problems of measurement of inequality.
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On Economic Inequality
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present a systematic treatment of the conceptual framework as well as the practical problems of measurement of inequality, and evaluate alternative approaches in terms of their philosophical assumptions, economic content, and statistical requirements.
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The Logic of Decision
TL;DR: This book proposes new foundations for the Bayesian principle of rational action, and goes on to develop a new logic of desirability and probabtility.