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Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
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The authors investigated the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis and found that stronger planned consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis.Abstract:
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.read more
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References
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The External Wealth of Nations Mark Ii: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004
Philip R. Lane,Philip R. Lane,Philip R. Lane,Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti,Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti +4 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004, focusing on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios.
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks
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Household Balance Sheets, Consumption, and the Economic Slump*
Atif Mian,Kamalesh Rao,Amir Sufi +2 more
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