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Open AccessJournal ArticleDOI

Introduction to Applied Stress Testing

Martin Cihak
- 01 Mar 2007 - 
- Vol. 07, Iss: 59, pp 1
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TLDR
This paper aims to help demystify stress tests, and illustrate their strengths and weaknesses, using an Excel-based exercise with institution-by-institution data.
Abstract
Stress testing is a useful and increasingly popular, yet sometimes misunderstood, method of analyzing the resilience of financial systems to adverse events. This paper aims to help demystify stress tests, and illustrate their strengths and weaknesses. Using an Excel-based exercise with institution-by-institution data, readers are walked through stress testing for credit risk, interest rate and exchange rate risks, liquidity risk and contagion risk, and are guided in the design of stress testing scenarios. The paper also describes the links between stress testing and other analytical tools, such as financial soundness indicators and supervisory early warning systems. Furthermore, it includes surveys of stress testing practices in central banks and the IMF.

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Non-Performing Loans: What Matters in Addition to the Economic Cycle?

TL;DR: In this paper, the macroeconomic determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) across 75 countries during the past decade were studied using a novel panel data set and the following variables were found to significantly affect NPL ratios: real GDP growth, share prices, the exchange rate, and the lending interest rate.
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Stress-Testing Macro Stress Testing: Does it Live Up to Expectations?

TL;DR: In this article, the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses, is reviewed and the authors argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, i.e., tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for triggering remedial action.
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Key Determinants of Non-performing Loans: New Evidence from a Global Sample

TL;DR: In this article, the macroeconomic determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) across 75 countries during the past decade were studied using a novel panel data set, and the following variables were found to significantly affect NPL ratios: real GDP growth, share prices, the exchange rate and the lending interest rate.
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Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a critical assessment of the modelling assumptions on which they are based, and discuss their use in financial stability analysis, concluding that contagious defaults are unlikely, but cannot be fully ruled out, at least in some countries.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Size and performance of banking firms: Testing the predictions of theory

TL;DR: This article examined the economic functions of banks in environments in which agents are asymmetrically informed and considered the incentive effects (moral hazard) resulting from deposit insurance, and provided limited support for either set of theoretical predictions.
Journal ArticleDOI

Risk Assessment for Banking Systems

TL;DR: It is found that correlation in banks' asset portfolios dominates contagion as the main source of systemic risk and the “value at risk” for a lender of last resort is surprisingly small.
Posted Content

Stress Testing of Financial Systems: An Overview of Issues, Methodologies, and FSAP Experiences

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide a general introduction to some of the concepts and basic techniques of stress testing, and give an overview of some conceptual issues involved in evaluating risks at the aggregated level of financial systems.
Book ChapterDOI

Why Is Financial Stability a Goal of Public Policy

TL;DR: Anumber of developments in recent years have combined to put the issue of financial stability at the top of the agenda, not just of supervisory authorities, but of public policymakers more generally.