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Job polarisation in the UK: an assessment using longitudinal data

Craig Holmes
TLDR
This article used data taken from two waves of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to study changes in labout market outcomes between 1981 and 2004 for a single cohort and found that the largest number of jobs continue to be in the middle of the wage spectrum.
Abstract
This paper provides an assessment of Goos and Manning's (2007) polarised or 'hour-glass' labout market thesis, which they claim has been caused by a period of routinisation where labout engaged in routine task occupations has been replaced by computer capital. It uses data taken from two waves of the National Child Development Study (NCDS) to study changes in labout market outcomes between 1981 and 2004 for a single cohort. While this dataset does demonstrate changes in employment consistent with routinisation, it is not clear that a polarising labour market is the inevitable conclusion. Looking at wage distributions for this cohort shows that the largest number of jobs continue to be in the middle of the wage spectrum. This paper questions the implicit assumption made by Goos and Manning (and subsequent authors) that initial wages provide a consistent proxy for job quality over the time period, and argues that the wage structure of occupations may have altered significantly over time.

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Citations
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References
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ReportDOI

The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration

TL;DR: This paper found that computer capital substitutes for workers in performing cognitive and manual tasks that can be accomplished by following explicit rules, and complements workers in non-routine problem-solving and complex communications tasks.
Journal ArticleDOI

Intermediate occupations and the conceptual and empirical limitations of the hourglass economy thesis

TL;DR: The authors argued that the hourglass economy thesis best describes recent occupational transformations, but it neglects important dimensions of change within intermediate occupations, which may well provide a more fruitful foundation from which to explore the nature of and developments within these jobs and their broader repercussions.
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