BookDOI
Managing Strategic Surprise: Lessons from Risk Management and Risk Assessment
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In this article, Bracken, Bremmer and Gordon present a warning system for the case of a surprise attack in a nuclear power plant in the presence of deep uncertainty.Abstract:
1. Introduction Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon 2. How to build a warning system Paul Bracken 3. Intelligence management as risk management: the case of surprise attack Uzi Arad 4. Nuclear proliferation epidemiology: uncertainty, surprise, and risk management Lewis A. Dunn 5. Precaution against terrorism Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener 6. Defense planning and risk management in the presence of deep uncertainty Paul K. Davis 7. Managing energy security risks in a changing world Coby van der Linde 8. What markets miss: political stability frameworks and country risk Preston Keat 9. The risk of failed state contagion Jeffrey Herbst 10. Conclusion: managing strategic surprise Paul Bracken, Ian Bremmer and David Gordon.read more
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Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility
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Why didn't they See it Coming? Warning Signs, Acceptable Risks and the Global Financial Crisis:
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Journal ArticleDOI
Taking uncertainty seriously: Classical realism and national security
TL;DR: The authors argue that classical realism is a valuable resource for handling uncertainty more reflexively and argue that governments should go beyond attempts to improve foresight, and instead try to check against the fallibility of their assumptions, marshal their power more conservatively, insure against the likelihood of predictive failure by developing the intellectual capability to react to the unknown, and avoid misplaced confidence in their ability to bring order into chaos.
Journal ArticleDOI
Rethinking pandemic preparedness in the Anthropocene.
TL;DR: A unified set of guidelines is needed to promote pandemic resilience by collaboratively tending to the determinants of health for each other, the authors' communities, and the natural environment.