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Journal ArticleDOI

Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes

Yosihiko Ogata
- 01 Mar 1988 - 
- Vol. 83, Iss: 401, pp 9-27
TLDR
Several classes of stochastic models for the origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes are discussed and the utility of seismic quiescence for the prediction of a major earthquake is investigated.
Abstract
This article discusses several classes of stochastic models for the origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes. The models are compared for a Japanese data set for the years 1885–1980 using likelihood methods. For the best model, a change of time scale is made to investigate the deviation of the data from the model. Conventional graphical methods associated with stationary Poisson processes can be used with the transformed time scale. For point processes, effective use of such residual analysis makes it possible to find features of the data set that are not captured in the model. Based on such analyses, the utility of seismic quiescence for the prediction of a major earthquake is investigated.

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References
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Journal ArticleDOI

A new look at the statistical model identification

TL;DR: In this article, a new estimate minimum information theoretical criterion estimate (MAICE) is introduced for the purpose of statistical identification, which is free from the ambiguities inherent in the application of conventional hypothesis testing procedure.
Journal ArticleDOI

A Rapidly Convergent Descent Method for Minimization

TL;DR: A number of theorems are proved to show that it always converges and that it converges rapidly, and this method has been used to solve a system of one hundred non-linear simultaneous equations.
Journal ArticleDOI

Frequency of earthquakes in California

TL;DR: In this article, a statistical comparison of earthquake frequency in California with that of the world as a whole was made by comparing the historical record of the earthquake frequency of California with the global average.
Journal ArticleDOI

A General Definition of Residuals

TL;DR: In the context of normal-theory linear models, the n x 1 vector of random variables Y is assumed to have the form as mentioned in this paper, and residuals are used to assess the adequacy of linear models.
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