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The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration

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This article investigated how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries and found that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility.
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This article is published in Journal of International Money and Finance.The article was published on 2010-06-01 and is currently open access. It has received 307 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Trilemma & Impossible trinity.

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Monetary Policy Spillovers and the Trilemma in the New Normal: Periphery Country Sensitivity to Core Country Conditions

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigate why and how the financial conditions of developing and emerging market countries (peripheral countries) can be affected by the movements in the center economies (the U.S., Japan, the Eurozone, and China).
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Rounding the Corners of the Policy Trilemma: Sources of monetary policy autonomy

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the effect of capital control and exchange rate flexibility on monetary policy autonomy and showed that partial capital controls do not generally enable a country to have greater monetary control than is the case with open capital accounts unless they are quite extensive.

Directorate general for internal policies policy department a: economic and scientific policy

Emu Reforms
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the sovereign debt crisis is due to two major flaws of the euro area's architecture: a doomed approach to fiscal discipline and the lack of a banking union.
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The "Impossible Trinity" Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing

TL;DR: In this article, the authors test the linearity of the trilemma, and find that the weighted sum of the three variables adds up to a constant, and thus, a rise in one variable should be traded-off with a drop of the other two.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined a cross-section of about 80 countries for the period 1960-89 and found that various measures of financial development are strongly associated with both current and later rates of economic growth.
Journal ArticleDOI

Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans

TL;DR: In this paper, it was shown that discretionary policy does not result in the social objective function being maximized, and that there is no way control theory can be made applicable to economic planning when expectations are rational.
ReportDOI

Financial Dependence and Growth

TL;DR: This paper examined whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship; that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, and found that industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of foreign finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets.
Posted Content

Financial Dependence and Growth

TL;DR: This paper examined whether financial development facilitates economic growth by scrutinizing one rationale for such a relationship: that financial development reduces the costs of external finance to firms, and they found that industrial sectors that are relatively more in need of foreign finance develop disproportionately faster in countries with more developed financial markets.
Journal ArticleDOI

The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-Of-Payments Problems

TL;DR: The authors analyzes the links between banking and currency crises and finds that problems in the banking sector typically precede a currency crisis, activating a vicious spiral; financial liberalization often precedes banking crises.
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Frequently Asked Questions (11)
Q1. What have the authors contributed in "The emerging global financial architecture: tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration" ?

This paper investigates how the trilemma policy mix affects economic performance in developing countries. The authors find that greater monetary independence can dampen output volatility, while greater exchange rate stability is associated with greater output volatility, which can be mitigated by reserve accumulation ; greater monetary autonomy is associated with higher inflation, while greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness is linked with lower inflation ; pursuit of exchange rate stability can increase output volatility when financial development is at an intermediate stage. 

A key message of the trilemma is instrument scarcity – policy makers face a tradeoff, where movement towards increasing the achievement of one trilemma policy goal, such as higher financial integration, induces a drop in the weighted average of the other two variables, i.e., lower exchange rate stability, lower monetary independence, or a combination of the two. 

Understanding the trilemma choices of developing countries and emerging market countries (EMG) is crucial, since they account for more than half of global GDP, and at times EMGs have grown much faster than industrialized countries. 

the world’s largest holder of international reserves, currently possesses approximately $2 trillion of reserves, accounting for 30% of the world’s total. 

One way of mitigating this problem is to use the regression coefficient from a regression of the home country’s interest on the base country’s rate, while controlling for external shocks. 

While the degree of exchange rate stability declined from the early 1970s to the early 1990s, it increased during the last fifteen years. 

international reserves have increased rapidly since the Asian crisis of 1997-98, particularly on the part of East Asian and oil exporting countries. 

Against the backdrop of the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression, the issue of whether the trilemma – the hypothesis that a country can only achieve two, but not all three, goals of monetary independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration – seems rather distant. 

IMF-based variables are too aggregated to capture the subtleties of actual capital controls, that is, the direction of capital flows (i.e., inflows or outflows) as well as the type of financial transactions targeted. 

Using these indexes, the authors showed that the major crises – namely, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the debt crisis of 1982, and the Asian crisis of 1997-98 – caused structural breaks in the trilemma configuration. 

Since KAOPEN is based upon reported restrictions, it is necessarily a de jure index of capital account openness (in contrast to de facto measures such as those in Lane and MilesiFerretti (2006)).