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The High Volume Return Premium

TLDR
In this paper, the authors investigate the role of trading activity in terms of the information it contains about future prices and find that stocks experiencing unusually high ~low! trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate ~depreciate! over the course of the following month.
Abstract
The idea that extreme trading activity contains information about the future evolution of stock prices is investigated. We find that stocks experiencing unusually high ~low! trading volume over a day or a week tend to appreciate ~depreciate! over the course of the following month. We argue that this high-volume return premium is consistent with the idea that shocks in the trading activity of a stock affect its visibility, and in turn the subsequent demand and price for that stock. Return autocorrelations, firm announcements, market risk, and liquidity do not seem to explain our results. THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PAPER is to investigate the role of trading activity in terms of the information it contains about future prices. More precisely, we are interested in the power of trading volume in predicting the direction of future price movements. We find that individual stocks whose trading activity is unusually large ~small! over periods of a day or a week, as measured by trading volume during those periods, tend to experience large ~small! returns over the subsequent month. In other words, a high-volume return premium seems to exist in stock prices. The essence of our paper’s results is captured in Figure 1. In this figure, we show the evolution of the average cumulative return of three groups of stocks: stocks that experienced unusually high, unusually low, and normal trading volume, relative to their recent history of trading volume, on the trading day preceding the portfolio formation date. We see that the stocks that experienced unusually high ~low! trading volume outperform ~are outperformed by! the stocks which had normal trading volume. Moreover, this effect appears to grow over time, especially for the high-volume stocks. We postulate that the high-volume premium is due to shocks in trader interest in a given stock, that is, the stock’s visibility. Miller ~1977! and

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Journal ArticleDOI

Revisiting the price-volume relationship: a cross-currency evidence

Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the contemporaneous and causal relationship between returns (volatility) and trading volume in the Indian currency futures market for selected currency pairs; USD-INR, EUR-INR, GBP-INR and JPY-INR, from August 2008 to December 2014. Design/methodology/approach The data for all the currency futures series has been taken from National Stock Exchange of India Limited which represents the daily settlement prices along with trading volume. The contemporaneous returns-volume relation is tested using the generalized method of moments, and Granger-causality framework impulse response function is used to test the predictive ability of returns (volatility) and volume for each other. Findings The author reports a positive contemporaneous relationship between futures returns and trading volume which persists even after controlling for heteroskedasticity providing support to mixture of distribution hypothesis. The results show a unidirectional Granger causality from futures returns to volume. However, there is a significant bidirectional Granger causality between returns volatility and volume lending support to sequential arrival of information hypothesis. Next, the results for cross-currencies show significant influence of US dollar on the volume and returns of all other currencies. Overall, the author suggests that the short- to medium-term movements in the currency markets are dominated by market microstructure and not by fundamentals. Practical implications The findings of this paper are very important for the participants in the market and regulators. The participants in the market require alternatives to diversify their risk. The significant relationship between futures returns (volatility) and trading volume implies that the current trading volume help predict the futures prices and should lead to creation of more reliable hedging strategies for investment purposes. Further, it may interest the regulators who need to decide upon the appropriateness of their policies in the currency futures market. Based on returns-volume relation, they need to set forth market restrictions such as daily price movement and position limits. Originality/value To the best of the knowledge, no study has yet investigated the forecast ability of trading volume to price changes and their volatility in the Indian currency futures market. Given that currency futures market is one of the largest markets in the world, and Indian rupee has seen wide fluctuations in the recent years, it seems exciting to explore the price-volume relationship in the Indian currency futures market.
Dissertation

Securities trading in multiple markets: the Chinese perspective

Chaoyan Wang
TL;DR: A survey of China's stock market can be found in this article, where the authors present a list of tables, graphs, and abbreviations of the stock market in China.
Journal ArticleDOI

The impact of trading volume on the stock market credibility: Bohmian quantum potential approach

TL;DR: In this article, a joint quantum potential as a function of return and volume is derived by the probability distribution function (PDF) constructed by the real data of a given market, and the results show that the quantum potential behaves in the same manner for trading volume as the price return and confines the variations of the volume into a specific domain.
Journal ArticleDOI

Implied Volatility Changes and Corporate Bond Returns

TL;DR: In contrast to An, Ang, Bali, and Cakici as mentioned in this paper who show that implied volatility changes carry information about fundamental news, our evidence suggests that volatility changes contain information about uncertainty shocks to the firm.
Journal ArticleDOI

Information Uncertainty and the Post–Earnings Announcement Drift in Europe

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the effect of earnings announcement abnormal return and of abnormal trading volume on future returns for a large sample of European companies with both annual and interim announcements over 1997-2010, and found that the two measures of market surprise are positively related to future abnormal returns.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI

Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency

TL;DR: In this article, the authors show that strategies that buy stocks that have performed well in the past and sell stocks that had performed poorly in past years generate significant positive returns over 3- to 12-month holding periods.
Journal ArticleDOI

Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading

Albert S. Kyle
- 01 Nov 1985 - 
Journal ArticleDOI

Does the Stock Market Overreact

TL;DR: In this article, a study of market efficiency investigates whether people tend to "overreact" to unexpected and dramatic news events and whether such behavior affects stock prices, based on CRSP monthly return data, is consistent with the overreaction hypothesis.
Journal ArticleDOI

An empirical evaluation of accounting income numbers

TL;DR: In this article, it is argued that income numbers cannot be defined substantively, that they lack "meaning" and are therefore of doubtful utility, and the argument stems in part from the patchwork development of account-based theories.
Journal ArticleDOI

Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders

TL;DR: The presence of traders with superior information leads to a positive bid-ask spread even when the specialist is risk-neutral and makes zero expected profits as discussed by the authors, and the expectation of the average spread squared times volume is bounded by a number that is independent of insider activity.
Related Papers (5)
Frequently Asked Questions (12)
Q1. What are the contributions mentioned in the paper "The high volume return premium" ?

The authors find that stocks experiencing unusually high ( low ) trading volume over a period of one day to a week tend to appreciate ( depreciate ) over the course of the following month. The high volume return premium that the authors document in this paper is not an artifact of these results. Finally, the authors also show that profitable trading strategies can be implemented to take advantage of the information contained in trading volume. 

Also, given that trading volume is determined endogenously, it appears that good ( bad ) information about the future prospects of a firm tends to be associated with higher ( lower ) volume. However, the 29 construction of a model that reconciles all the empirical facts documented in this paper represents a challenge for future research. This would imply that investors have asymmetric reactions to good versus bad news, as suggested by the short-sale constraint model by Diamond and Verrecchia ( 1987 ). From these simulated series of TFG ’ s and TGF ’ s, the authors can finally estimate Ad, so that ( A. 1 ) is satisfied empirically. 

Since information-based trading is more likely to take place when an information event has occurred, the lack of trading activity in their model tends to be associated with low asymmetric information between market participants. 

Because the $1 investment is made per stock in each trading interval, the aggregation for the reference return portfolios is taken over both trading intervals and stocks. 

In fact, the positive returns generated by their strategies not only die out after the first week, but tend to revert back to zero over the following three weeks, as opposed to their strategies which generate positive returns for up to 100 trading days (20 weeks). 

Since the Lee and Ready (1991) algorithm requires a transaction by transaction account of the trading activity, the authors use the TAQ sample introduced in section 6.4 to perform this analysis. 

To do this, the authors use the twenty trading days (i.e. about a month) following the formation period of each trading interval to measure the returns following formation periods with large or small trading volume. 

52As this potential bias accentuates the returns generated from long positions with high volume stocks, but attenuates the returns from short positions with low volume stocks, it is not clear whether their strategies benefit from or are hurt by it. 

Looking at the intertemporal effects of unusual volume on spreads will therefore tell us about the information asymmetry risk in stock prices. 

Ad ≤ TGF , so the authors can reject null hypothesis in favor of the alternative that F first-order stochastically dominates G.Test #2This test follows the procedure developed by Anderson (1996), and is an extension of the Pearson’s goodness of fit test. 

As this is done progressively through the reference period, this means that the t-th day of the reference period will be given a relative weight of wt(n) = 1 + ( n−1 48 ) (t− 1). 

unlike the components of the reference return portfolios, the components of the zero investment portfolios require a non-zero investment, and therefore should be more appropriately compared to the average returns of normal volume stocks in order to measure the excess return that they are generating.