Figure 3. Probability of occurrence of the number concentration, n, of homogeneously frozen ice crystals for the color-coded cases shown in Figure 2. The simulation results (stair steps) with homogeneous freezing temperatures near 218K include the effect of preferential freezing. We include the instantaneous statistics without preferential freezing (dashed curves) for each simulation case. Both stochastic and deterministic distributions are compared to the statistic (black curve) derived from aircraft measurements of midlatitude cirrus (Midlatitude Cirrus Properties Experiment [MACPEX]). Total nucleated number concentrations of ice crystals with all sizes (typically > 1πm), averaged over 1 cm/s β€ w0 β€ πw in each simulation case (or calculated analytically from the instantaneous statistics) and from MACPEX for ice crystal sizes > 15πm taken in the temperature range 215β221K, are given in the left legend.
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