Journal ArticleDOI
The Probable and the Provable
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This article is published in Philosophical Books.The article was published on 1980-07-01. It has received 160 citations till now.read more
Citations
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Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making and present a new perspective of naturalistic decision making, which they argue is unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics.
Journal ArticleDOI
Decision Making under Ambiguity.
TL;DR: In this article, a model of judgement under ambiguity is developed in which an initial estimate serves as a starting point and adjustments are made for abbiguity, and the adjustments involve a mental simulation in which higher and lower probabilities are considered and differentially weighted.
Book
Ignorance and Uncertainty: Emerging Paradigms
TL;DR: In this article, a variety of approaches to the problem of indeterminacies in human thought and behavior are discussed, including cognitive psychology, social psychology, organizational studies, sociology, and social anthroplogy.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evidence and Inference in Educational Assessment.
TL;DR: In this article, issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from a general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty, and the resulting concepts and techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles.
Journal ArticleDOI
Naked Statistical Evidence of Liability: Is Subjective Probability Enough?
TL;DR: This paper found that people are reluctant to make proplaintiff liability decisions when the plaintiffs evidence is based on naked statistical evidence alone, even though the mathematical and subjective probabilities were the same for both types of evidence.
References
More filters
Book
Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods
TL;DR: In this article, the authors present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making and present a new perspective of naturalistic decision making, which they argue is unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics.
Journal ArticleDOI
Decision Making under Ambiguity.
TL;DR: In this article, a model of judgement under ambiguity is developed in which an initial estimate serves as a starting point and adjustments are made for abbiguity, and the adjustments involve a mental simulation in which higher and lower probabilities are considered and differentially weighted.
Journal ArticleDOI
Evidence and Inference in Educational Assessment.
TL;DR: In this article, issues of evidence and inference in educational assessment are discussed from a general principles for inference in the presence of uncertainty, and the resulting concepts and techniques can be viewed as applications of more general principles.
Journal ArticleDOI
Naked Statistical Evidence of Liability: Is Subjective Probability Enough?
TL;DR: This paper found that people are reluctant to make proplaintiff liability decisions when the plaintiffs evidence is based on naked statistical evidence alone, even though the mathematical and subjective probabilities were the same for both types of evidence.
Journal ArticleDOI
Belief, credence, and norms
TL;DR: In this paper, the relationship between belief and credence for a rational agent is investigated, and it is shown that belief has a distinctive role to play, even for ideally rational agents, that cannot be played by credence.