Open AccessBook
Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods
TLDR
In this article, the authors present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making and present a new perspective of naturalistic decision making, which they argue is unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics.Abstract:
This book describes the new perspective of naturalistic decision making. The point of departure is how people make decisions in complex, time-pressured, ambiguous, and changing environments. The purpose of this book is to present and elaborate on past models developed to explain this type of decision making. The central philosophy of the book is that classical decision theory has been unproductive since it is so heavily grounded in economics and mathematics. The contributors believe there is little to be learned from laboratory studies about how people actually handle difficult and interesting tasks; therefore, the book presents a critique of classical decision theory. The models of naturalistic decision making described by the contributors were derived to explain the behavior of firefighters, business people, jurors, nuclear power plant operators, and command-and-control officers. The models are unique in that they address the way people use experience to frame situations and adopt courses of action. The models explain the strengths of skilled decision makers. Naturalistic decision research requires the examination of field settings, and a section of the book covers methods for conducting meaningful research outside the laboratory. In addition, since his approach has applied value, the book covers issues of training and decision support systems.read more
Citations
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Remembering. A Study in Experimental and Social Psychology, Cambridge (University Press) 1964.
TL;DR: In this paper, the notion of a collective unconscious was introduced as a theory of remembering in social psychology, and a study of remembering as a study in Social Psychology was carried out.
Posted Content
Risk As Analysis and Risk As Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality
TL;DR: This article addresses the important questions of how to infuse needed "doses of feeling" into circumstances where lack of experience may otherwise leave us too "coldly rational"?
Journal ArticleDOI
Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem
TL;DR: It is argued that risk management must be modelled by cross-disciplinary studies, considering risk management to be a control problem and serving to represent the control structure involving all levels of society for each particular hazard category, and that this requires a system-oriented approach based on functional abstraction rather than structural decomposition.
Book ChapterDOI
The affect heuristic
TL;DR: This article introduced a theoretical framework that describes the importance of affect in guiding judgments and decisions and argued that reliance on such feelings can be characterized as "the affect heuristic" and discussed some of the important practical implications resulting from ways that this heuristic impacts our daily lives.
References
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Book
Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The authors described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: representativeness, availability of instances or scenarios, and adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available.
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The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
Amos Tversky,Daniel Kahneman +1 more
TL;DR: The psychological principles that govern the perception of decision problems and the evaluation of probabilities and outcomes produce predictable shifts of preference when the same problem is framed in different ways.
Book
A mathematical theory of evidence
TL;DR: This book develops an alternative to the additive set functions and the rule of conditioning of the Bayesian theory: set functions that need only be what Choquet called "monotone of order of infinity." and Dempster's rule for combining such set functions.
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A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice
TL;DR: In this article, a model for the description of rational choice by organisms of limited computational ability is proposed, and the model is used to describe rational choice in organisms with limited computational abilities.