The Rationality of Science

Scientific Research in Education

Preface and acknowledgements 1. Rationality 2. States that are essentially by-products 3. Sour grapes 4. Belief, bias and ideology References Index.

Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality

This article argues that the agent-based computational model permits a distinctive approach to social science for which the term “generative” is suitable. In defending this terminology, features distinguishing the approach from both “inductive” and “deductive” science are given. Then, the following specific contributions to social science are discussed: The agent-based computational model is a new tool for empirical research. It offers a natural environment for the study of connectionist phenomena in social science. Agent-based modeling provides a powerful way to address certain enduring—and especially interdisciplinary—questions. It allows one to subject certain core theories—such as neoclassical microeconomics—to important types of stress (e.g., the effect of evolving preferences). It permits one to study how rules of individual behavior give rise—or “map up”—to macroscopic regularities and organizations. In turn, one can employ laboratory behavioral research findings to select among competing agent-based (“bottom up”) models. The agent-based approach may well have the important effect of decoupling individual rationality from macroscopic equilibrium and of separating decision science from social science more generally. Agent-based modeling offers powerful new forms of hybrid theoretical-computational work; these are particularly relevant to the study of non-equilibrium systems. The agentbased approach invites the interpretation of society as a distributed computational device, and in turn the interpretation of social dynamics as a type of computation. This interpretation raises important foundational issues in social science—some related to intractability, and some to undecidability proper. Finally, since “emergence” figures prominently in this literature, I take up the connection between agent-based modeling and classical emergentism, criticizing the latter and arguing that the two are incompatible. ! 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Agent-based computational models and generative social science

Summary The main argument for scientific realism is that our present theories in science are so successful empirically that they can’t have got that way by chance - instead they must somehow have latched onto the blueprint of the universe. The main argument against scientific realism is that there have been enormously successful theories which were once accepted but are now regarded as false. The central question addressed in this paper is whether there is some reasonable way to have the best of both worlds: to give the argument from scientific revolutions its full weight and yet still adopt some sort of realist attitude towards presently accepted theories in physics and elsewhere. I argue that there is such a way - through strucfurul realism, a position adopted by PoincarC, and here elaborated and defended. Resume L’argument principal en faveur du realisme scientifique, c’est que nos theories scientifiques actuelles sont empiriquement si efficaces que cela ne peut pas Etre di3 au hasard - on doit en quelque sorte avoir decouvert les plans de I’univers. L’argument principal contre le realisme scientifique, c’est qu’il y a eu des theories scientifiques massivement efficaces qui ont ete autrefois tenues pour vraies mais sont considerkes aujourd’hui comme fausses. La principale question traitee dans ce papier, c’est s’il y a un moyen raisonnable de prendre le meilleur des deux mondes: de donner tout son poids a l’argument tire des revolutions scientifiques et d’adopter pourtant une sorte d’attitude realiste a I’egard des theories actuellement acceptkes en physique ou ailleurs. Je rnontre qu’une telle voie existe: le realisme sfrucfurel, une position adoptke par Poincare, que je defends et dkveloppe ici. Zusammenfassung Das Hauptargument fur wissenschaftlichen Realismus ist, dass unsere gegenwartigen Theorien in der Wissenschaft empirisch so erfolgreich sind, dass sie nicht zuftilligerweise so geworden sein kdnnen - statt dessen miissen sie irgendwie mit dem Plan des Universums Ubereinstimmen. Das Hauptargument gegen den wissenschaftlichen Realismus ist, dass es ausgesprochen erfolgreiche Theorien gegeben hat, die einmal akzeptiert gewesen waren, aber jetzt als falsch betrachtet werden. Die in diesem Papier behandelte Kernfrage lautet, ob es einen verniinftigen Weg gibt, aus beiden Weltcn das Beste zu haben: dem Argument vom Vorhandensein wissenschaftlicher Revolutionen sein volles Gewicht zu geben und dennoch eine Art von realistischer Einstellung gegeniiber den heute in der Physik und anderswo akzeptierten Theorien einzunehmen. Ich argumentiere, dass es einen solchen Weg gibt - durch den von Poincart iibernommenen strukturellen Realismus, der hier ausgearbeitet und verteidigt wird.

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Structural Realism: The Best of Both Worlds?*

Classification in psychopathology is a problem in applied mathematics; it answers the empirical question "Is the latent structure of these phenotypic indicator correlations taxonic (categories) or nontaxonic (dimensions, factors)?" It is not a matter of convention or preference. Two taxometric procedures, MAMBAC and MAXCOV-HITMAX, provide independent tests of the taxonic conjecture and satisfactorily accurate estimates of the taxon base rate, the latent means, and the valid and false-positive rates achievable by various cuts. The method requires no gold standard criterion, applying crude fallible diagnostic "criteria" only in the phase of discovery to identify plausible candidate indicators. Confidence in the inference to taxonic structure and numerical accuracy of latent values is provided by multiple consistency tests, hence the term coherent cut kinetics for the general approach. Further revision of diagnostic systems should be based on taxometric analysis rather than on committee decisions based on clinical impressions and nontaxometric research.

The Rationality of Science

Citations

Scientific Research in Education

Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality

Agent-based computational models and generative social science

Structural Realism: The Best of Both Worlds?*

Bootstraps taxometrics: Solving the classification problem in psychopathology.

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