How does agent-based modelling contribute to understanding systemic risk in complex financial systems?4 answersAgent-based modeling plays a crucial role in comprehending systemic risk in complex financial systems by simulating interactions between agents and their strategies. These models capture the evolving nature of financial networks, where agents adapt risky or less risky investment strategies to maximize returns. By studying replicator dynamics, agent-based models reveal how strategies drive the financial network and can lead to systemic risk regimes if all agents blindly adopt risky strategies. Furthermore, these models help in identifying Systemically Important Financial Institutions (SIFIs) and measuring systemic risk by integrating direct and indirect contagion channels, enhancing the representation of financial systemic risk. Overall, agent-based modeling provides insights into the emergent behavior of financial systems, aiding in the assessment and mitigation of systemic risks.
What difference between financial contagion and interdependence?4 answersFinancial contagion refers to the spread of financial distress or shocks from one market to another, leading to a domino effect. On the other hand, interdependence in financial markets signifies the mutual reliance and interconnectedness among markets, where movements in one market can influence others. While contagion involves the transmission of negative events, interdependence reflects the broader concept of how markets are linked and affect each other in various ways. Studies have shown that during crises, such as the 2007 subprime financial crisis and the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, contagion effects were observed between different markets, highlighting the vulnerability of interconnected financial systems. Understanding both contagion and interdependence is crucial for assessing systemic risks and enhancing financial stability.
Do ETFs contribute to systemic risk?5 answersETFs have the potential to contribute to systemic risk in financial markets. The increasing availability of ETFs allows investors to pursue new strategies and access new asset classes, which can impact the functioning of financial markets, especially during times of market stress. ETFs create deep and complex interconnections between market participants, extending to retail and institutional investors, and corporate behaviors and decisions. This interconnection creates direct and indirect systemic risk transmission pathways, with unique factors not present in other managed asset products. Misinformed trades by active traders in ETF markets may trigger more misinformed automated trades, undermining the price formation mechanism and reducing the informativeness of financial market pricing. There is a growing concern that ETFs pose new risks to market stability and performance, and it is important to have the right rules and oversight in place to manage these risks.
How do market participant behaviors affect abnormal trading risk contagion?5 answersMarket participant behaviors have a significant impact on abnormal trading risk contagion. Investor sensitivity to new information, investment decisions of neighboring investors, and investor understanding preference for new information influence investor sentiment and subsequently affect stock price volatility. Risk information dissemination, banks' information acquisition capability, and information disclosure strategies also play a role in risk contagion in the interbank market. In the NFT market, fraudulent behaviors such as wash trading can mislead other traders, and clustering algorithms can help identify and regulate such behaviors. Additionally, behavioral finance theories suggest that irrational behavior and herding mentality among investors contribute to shock spillovers and contagion in financial markets. Overall, market participant behaviors, including sensitivity to information, information acquisition, and fraudulent activities, have a significant impact on abnormal trading risk contagion.
What research exists on the interaction between abnormal trading financial risk contagion and market participant behavior?5 answersResearch has been conducted on the interaction between abnormal trading, financial risk contagion, and market participant behavior. Liu et al. found that individual investors in the Chinese stock market integrate climate risk into their investment decisions, shifting their assets from high-emission to low-emission companies during periods of abnormally high local temperatures. Song et al. highlighted the concerns of money laundering, fraud, and wash trading in the unregulated Non-Fungible-Token (NFT) market, and proposed using quantitative features and clustering algorithms to identify fraudulent behaviors and protect amateur traders. Ionășcuți and Dima examined financial contagion among 17 market indices and found evidence of contagion between some markets, with regional contagion observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Zou et al. developed a big data investment analysis algorithm to detect abnormal transactions in the financial securities market, improving investment analysis accuracy and efficiency.
How do systemic risk is related to accounting and real estate and banks?5 answersSystemic risk is related to accounting and real estate in the banking sector. The size of large financial institutions, particularly shadow entities, increases systemic risk. Real estate finance services are sensitive to maturity mismatch and leverage, but not to size. Boom and bust cycles in real estate are a primary cause of financial crises, leading to risk shifting and asset substitution. Macroprudential policies, such as restrictions on loan-to-value ratios and countercyclical capital requirements, aim to prevent real estate bubbles. The National Bank of Belgium introduced a sectoral capital requirement to strengthen Belgian banks against adverse developments in the real estate market. Accounting measures, such as return-on-assets and loan-loss-reserves-to-gross-loans, are related to total and non-systematic risk in Asian banks. Systemic risk is significantly larger in the banking sector compared to the insurance, construction, and food sectors.