What is the good model perturbation method for convection permitting ensemble?
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モデルの摂動は、対流を許容するアンサンブル予測に関するいくつかの研究で評価されています。Wang らは、モデル摂動によって降水量のアンサンブル拡散が増加し、降水量や動的変数の予測技術が向上することを発見しました 。Andraeらは確率的摂動パラメータ化スキーム (SPP) を実装し、それを確率的摂動パラメータ化傾向スキーム (SPPT) と比較した。その結果、SPPは雲積を含む気象変数の変動を増加させるが、アンサンブル平均の二乗平均平方根誤差も増加させ、平均バイアスに影響を与えることが明らかになった 。Clarkらは確率的境界層スキームを実装し、摂動が予測のエネルギーにほとんど影響を与えないことを発見したが、アンサンブルメンバー間の差は時間とともに大きくなっていった 。Semeenaらは、初期の土壌水分摂動の影響を評価し、それらが蒸発率と地表近くの温度にかなりの広がりをもたらし、対流許容モデル ではより顕著な影響があることを発見しました。Hermosoらは、さまざまな確率的スキームを比較し、確率的摂動が微物理過程に与えると、アンサンブルの広がりが大きくなることを発見しました。これは、極端な事象予測に対する確率的パラメータ化の潜在的なプラスの影響を示しています]。
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| Papers (5) | Insight |
|---|---|
8 Citations | この研究は、確率的パラメータ化の摂動傾向とミクロフィジックススキーム内の影響力のあるパラメータへの摂動が、対流を許容するアンサンブル予測に適したモデル摂動法であることを示唆している。 |
| この研究では、パラメータ化された対流（GLOB-ENS）を備えた英国気象庁のグローバルアンドリージョナルアンサンブル予測システム（MOGREPS）を、地域対流許容システム（CP-ENS）と比較し、CP-ENSモデルが対流許容スケールでのプロセスベースの予測改善の可能性を示していることを示唆しています。 | |
| この論文は、対流を許容するアンサンブル予測のために気象庁の統一モデルに実装された、物理的に一貫性のある確率的境界層スキームを示しています。 | |
| モデル摂動は、対流を許容するアンサンブル予測におけるアンサンブルの広がりを増加させ、降水量の予測スキルを向上させるのに効果的であることがわかりました。 | |
5 Citations | 確率的摂動パラメーター化スキーム (SPP) は、対流を許容するアンサンブルに適したモデル摂動法です。 |
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