Showing papers on "Economic interdependence published in 2010"

Trade does promote peace: New simultaneous estimates of the reciprocal effects of trade and conflict:

Abstract: Two studies question whether economic interdependence promotes peace, arguing that previous research has not adequately considered the endogeneity of trade. Using simultaneous equations to capture the reciprocal effects, they report that trade does not reduce conflict, though conflict reduces trade. These results are puzzling on logical grounds. Trade should make conflict less likely, ceteris paribus, if interstate violence adversely affects commerce; otherwise, national leaders are acting irrationally. In re-analyzing the authors’ data, this article shows that trade does promote peace once the gravity model is incorporated into the analysis of conflict. Both trade and conflict are influenced by nations’ sizes and the distance separating them, so these fundamental exogenous factors must be included in models of conflict as well as trade. One study errs in omitting distance when explaining militarized disputes. The other does not adequately control for the effect of size (or power). When these theoreticall...

The ‘new East Asian regionalism’: A political domino effect

Abstract: The proliferation of regional economic agreements involving East Asian economies in the years since the financial crises is usually explained in the political economy literature by reference to economic factors. These agreements have been viewed either as a response to the costs of increasing interdependence and/or to the demand by domestic exporters to level the playing field when their rivals benefit from preferential trade agreements. A detailed examination of economic data finds no support, however, for the argument that intra-regional economic interdependence in East Asia has increased significantly since the financial crises. Case studies suggest that business has not played a major role in either promoting or opposing the agreements – not surprisingly in that the agreements are unlikely to have a major economic impact, and are not being widely used. Rather than there being an ‘economic domino’ effect at work, the new East Asian regionalism is best understood as being driven by a ‘political...

Dealing with Dutch disease

Abstract: This note looks at so-called Dutch disease, a phenomenon reflecting changes in the structure of production in the wake of a favorable shock (such as a large natural resource discovery, a rise in the international price of an exportable commodity, or the presence of sustained aid or capital inflows). Where the natural resources discovered are oil or minerals, a contraction or stagnation of manufacturing and agriculture could accompany the positive effects of the shock, according to the theory. The note considers channels through which such natural resource wealth can affect the economy. It also focuses on the development implications of Dutch disease, particularly the potential negative effects related to productivity dynamics and volatility; and concludes with a summary of possible policy responses, including the mix of fiscal, exchange rate, and structural reform policies.

Foreign direct investment and militarized international conflict

Abstract: Liberals claim that countries avoid conflict in order not to disrupt economically beneficial exchange. The statement that economic integration reduces the likelihood of conflict is largely based on the effects of trade. A similar rationale can be applied to economic interdependence in the form of international capital exchange. A state is expected to avoid political risk, especially severe forms such as militarized disputes, in order not to deter investors. This study tests, on the dyadic and monadic levels of analyses, whether the liberal peace proposition holds when economic integration is operationalized as foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks, inflows, and outflows. The results for the years 1980—2000 indicate that inflows and stock of foreign investment reduce the risk of an outbreak of a fatal dispute, regardless of whether they are tested in a single equation or a simultaneous equation model. Thus, reverse causality does not bias the pacifying effect of foreign investment inflows and stock. The results also support the underlying notion of the commercial peace that militarized conflicts inhibit foreign investment. The onset of a fatal conflict reduces FDI inflows, and, if tested in a two-stage instrumental variable approach, FDI stock, the most complete measure of economic integration through foreign investment. Accounting for endogeneity seems particularly important when analyzing the link between the onset of fatal disputes and the outflow of FDI.

International Relations Theory and China's Rise: Assessing China's Potential for Territorial Expansion

Abstract: Whether China’s rise as a great power will be peaceful or violent is a question that animates scholars and policymakers alike. Power transition theory and offensive realism reach pessimistic conclusions about China’s potential for armed conflict because of the benefits of aggression. Nevertheless, applications of these theories to China’s rise fail to examine the size and scope of these benefits and to compare them systematically to the costs of conflict that other scholars have identified. To fill this gap, this article applies different international relations theories to identify potential benefits in one defined issue area, territorial conflict, and then weighs these benefits against the likely costs. The potential benefits of territorial expansion are limited, a finding that weakens confidence in the predictions of power transition theory and offensive realism but increases confidence in more optimistic arguments about China’s rise based on economic interdependence. Whether China’s rise will be peaceful or violent is a question that animates scholars and statesmen alike. Within the study of international relations, however, competing theoretical perspectives offer different answers to this important question. Scholars who examine the consequences of China’s rise through the lens of either power transition theory or offensive realism predict a future of conflict. According to variants of power transition theory, conflict is most likely when a rising power, dissatisfied with the status quo, approaches parity with the dominant state in a region or the system and is willing to use force to reshape the system’s rules and institutions (Organski 1958; Organski and Kugler 1980; Gilpin 1981; Modelski 1987; Kugler and Lemke 1996; Thompson 2000; Lemke 2002). When power transition theory has been applied to contemporary China, many scholars predict that China will become more belligerent as it accumulates material capabilities (Tammen, Kugler, Lemke, Stam, Abdollahian, Alsharabati, Efird, and Organski 2000; Efird, Kugler, and Genna 2003; Rapkin and Thompson 2003, 2006; Kugler 2006; Tammen and Kugler 2006; Goldstein 2007). 1 Likewise, the theory of offensive realism asserts that states will pursue expansion as they grow stronger, when statesmen perceive a relative increase in power (Labs 1997; Zakaria 1998; Mearsheimer 2001; Elman 2004). As power is held to be the ultimate source of security in an anarchic world, states pursue expansion to achieve

Conflict, security, and political risk: International business in challenging times

Abstract: Journal of International Business Studies (2010) 41, 759–764. doi:10.1057/jibs.2010.11 Scholars and policymakers have expressed a longstanding interest in the relationship between the global economy and political conflict. More recently, attention has begun shifting to the role that terrorism plays in international business. Both sets of issues have sparked heated disagreement. Whereas various observers have argued that the growth of international economic exchange promotes peace, others contend that heightened economic interdependence can contribute to the degradation of interstate relations through acts of terrorism by non-state actors and spur interstate conflict. Yet others doubt that any systematic relationship exists between economic exchange and political hostilities. An initial wave of empirical research has found support for the argument that heightened international commerce fosters cooperation, at least as a mean tendency. The second wave of this research has begun to unpack the country-level, sector-level, and firm-level contingencies that affect the strength and nature of the relationship between conflict and economic exchange (Mansfield & Pollins, 2001). The four papers in this Special Issue are part of a nascent body of scholarship exploring these issues in the context of international business (IB).

How Opportunity Costs Decrease the Probability of War in an Incomplete Information Game

Abstract: This paper shows that the opportunity costs resulting from economic interdependence decrease the equilibrium probability of war in an incomplete information game. This result is strongly consistent with existing empirical analyses of the inverse trade-conflict relationship, but is the opposite of the conclusion reached by Gartzke et al. (2001), who reject the opportunity cost argument in a game-theoretic framework. As a result of this paper’s findings, one cannot dismiss the opportunity cost argument as the explanation why trading nations fight less. Instead this study reaffirms the central position of opportunity costs as the basis for the inverse trade-conflict relationship, thus implying that one need not rely on signaling.

Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of global production sharing for economic integration in East Asia, with emphasis on the behavior of trade flows in the wake of the 2008 global economic crisis. While trade in parts and components and final assembly within production networks (“network trade”) has generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than elsewhere in the world. Network trade has certainly strengthened economic interdependence among countries in the region, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) playing a pivotal role as the premier center of final assembly. However, contrary to the popular belief, this has not lessened the dependence of the export dynamism of these countries on the global economy. The rise of global production sharing has strengthened the case for a global, rather than regional, approach to trade and investment policymaking.

New Directions in Political Science: Responding to the Challenges of an Interdependent World

Abstract: Introduction: Political Science in an Age of Acknowledged Interdependence C.Hay Policy Making in an Interdependent World M.Moran The Rise of Political Disenchantment G.Stoker The Internet in Political Science H.Margetts The New Politics of Equality J.Kantola & J.Squires Multiculturalism, Citizenship and National Identity T.Madood The Character of the State H.Thompson Economic Interdependence J.Ravenhill The Challenge of Territorial Politics C.Jeffery & D.Wincott New Security Challenges in an Interdependent World S.Croft Global Challenges: Accountability and Effectiveness D.Held Global Justice K.Hutchings

The Capitalist Peace and the Rise of China: Establishing Global Harmony by Economic Interdependence

Abstract: Historically, the rise and fall of great powers has been related to great wars. Both world wars of the twentieth century would not have been possible without the previous industrialization and rise...

Beyond Kantian Liberalism: Peace through Globalization?

Abstract: Although globalization has become one of the most salient issues in the study of international relations during the past few decades, its net effect on international conflict remains unexplored. I argue that although the manifold phenomena of globalization may conflict (i.e. produce both positive and negative influences), its overall consequences help foster a common peaceful disposition among national leaders who are then less likely to resort to arms in times of crisis. Based on a cross-sectional, time-series dyadic data analysis for 114 countries during the period from 1970 to 2001, this study reports that socio-economic and political globalization in its entirety generates a dampening effect on militarized interstate disputes. Even when common conflict-related control variables such as democracy, economic interdependence, joint membership in international organizations, and others are incorporated into the analysis, globalization emerges as the most powerful explanatory variable. Consequently, globalization when taken in its entirety represents an unambiguous force for interstate peace.

Diversity and Transformation of Aid Patterns in Asia's "Emerging Donors"

Abstract: This paper analyses comparatively the aid patterns and their formulation of four emerging donor countries: China, South Korea, Thailand and India The aim of the paper is to increase understanding of how these countries’ aid patterns have been created and by what factors The aid patterns employed by the emerging donors are divergent Chinese aid has shifted from the overtly political and ideological to the commercialist; thus, current Chinese aid is closely tied to Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs) Korean aid has consistently been commercialist, but recently it has incorporated universal and humanitarian considerations Thailand has maintained a keen interest in aid as a stabiliser of its neighbouring countries The Indian aid program was initially formed during the Cold War consonant with the ideology of the Non-Aligned Movement, but from the 1990s economic considerations became more important Indian aid is influenced also by regional strategies, namely the stabilisation of neighbouring countries Various factors are proposed to account for the formation and transformation of the aid patterns Current Chinese aid is influenced by deepening economic interdependence and by diplomatic competition with Taiwan Korean aid is promoted by pragmatic values and more recently by universal humanitarian values The recent shift to a humanitarian emphasis is explained by a shift in the relative power balance of actors away from the conservative toward the progressive In addition, its middle power status in the international community makes South Korea sensitive to competition from other donors, such as China, and to international pressure from DAC Thai aid is motivated by the economic gap between Thailand and its neighbouring countries, by its strategies toward the Indo-China region, and by its compliance with DAC The Indian aid program was initially formed during the Cold War in response to the political and ideological Non-Aligned Movement, but from the 1990s economic considerations became more important India is also influenced by regional strategies, namely the stabilisation of neighbouring countries This comparative analysis of these four emerging donors contributes to an understanding of the diversity of aid patterns and the particular factors that create them The increasing diversity of aid patterns further implies potential for future pluralism of aid

Evolving Asian Power Balances and Alternate Conceptions for Building Regional Institutions

Abstract: The paper aims to examine economic interdependence and balancing power politics, and their mixed implications for regional institution building in East Asia based on the concept of common security. By pointing out the gap between the violent conflict prediction and the stability and prosperity reality following the end of the Cold War, the paper gives analysis to the factors affecting the security relations in the region, including (i) the role of the US, (ii) the rise of the PRC, (iii) ASEAN's efforts at regional cooperation, the (iv) the PRC–Japan rivalry. The author concludes that economic interdependence and regional cooperation in Asia have constrained a power struggle from spiraling out of control, while open regionalism has become a reasonable approach to regional institution building. Finally, the paper makes policy recommendations with respect to principles and steps in moving to a new regional security order.

The deterrent effects of economic integration

Abstract: Economic interdependence and international conflict studies have traditionally focused on the role of bilateral trade on direct deterrence, mostly omitting its indirect effects on third-party states. While scholars in the extended deterrence literature have examined the role of defender—target trade in deterring aggressors, most empirical research has remained limited to immediate deterrence and neglected general deterrence. This article synthesizes these literatures and goes beyond the dyad-level analysis in trade—conflict studies by focusing on the deterrent effects of trade. I claim that trade ties between the defender and target are not sufficient for extended general deterrence. This is mainly because international trade by itself is a poor indicator of the extent to which the target is an economically important friend of the defender, worth defending against aggressors. Empirical analysis of militarized disputes between rival states in the post-1945 period supports this point and shows that extended deterrence success is most likely in cases where the defender and target are economically integrated through regional trade institutions as well as conducting heavy trade. Economically minded defenders can successfully generate credible signals of resolve if they have institutional ties with their important trade partners.

Economic interdependence in asia: developing indicators for regional integration and cooperation

Abstract: We develop indicators to measure the degree of economic integration and cooperation among East Asian economies and compare these with similar measures for other regions. Our indicators cover regional integration in trade, investment, financial assets, and people-to-people exchange. We also analyze measures of regional cooperation such as the density of free trade agreements and official policy dialogues. We find that in various Asian groupings, and especially in a group of 16 integrating Asian economies, interdependence in trade, direct investment, financial flows, and other forms of economic and social exchange has increased significantly over time, and now approaches that in the European Union. Nonetheless, Asia's official cooperation remains weak and formal regional institutions remain relatively underdeveloped. To provide insight into the causes of this discrepancy, we also develop quantitative measures of political and cultural similarity of nations, and find that Asian countries have relatively low levels of political and cultural proximity compared to regions such as Europe. The diversity of political interests and cultural values may have hindered more intense cooperation among Asian economies in the past. But if regional economic and social interactions continue to grow, requirements for joint decision-making are also likely to expand, leading to stronger frameworks of official cooperation.

Trade Interdependence and the Issues at Stake in the Onset of Militarized Conflict: Exploring a Boundary Condition of Pacific Interstate Relations

Abstract: This article explores a boundary condition surrounding the effect of trade interdependence on the onset of interstate conflict. In particular, we focus on the types of conflict experienced by states, including territory, policy, and regime conflicts. We draw on the MID 3.1 and Oneal and Russett’s data to build three multinomial logit models to examine how trade interdependence affects territorial, policy, and regime types of conflict between 1885 and 2000. We find that trade interdependence significantly decreases the onset of all three types of conflict. This result largely holds across three different measures of trade interdependence. Moreover, we discover that the pacific effect of trade interdependence on the three types of conflict displays different patterns. Trade interdependence at the moderate and middle levels plays a marginal role in pacifying territorial and policy conflict. This effect becomes quite strong between states with high levels of interdependence. For policy conflicts, the threshol...

International Standards and Standard‐Setting Bodies

Abstract: STANDARDS prescribe the behavior or characteristics of people or inanimate objects, often in technical terms. They play a central role in domestic and international product and financial markets. Standards for the sterility of medical instruments, for instance, prescribe safe methods for sterilizing instruments or spell out how long thereafter they may be considered sterile given specified packaging and storage conditions. Food standards may specify pesticide residue levels that are considered harmless for human consumption if found on the skin of an apple or prescribe methods for laboratory testing of beef or milk for artificial growth hormones (or natural components, such as fat content) so that food safety inspections and consumer labels provide reliable and comparable' information-an increasingly contentious issue in international trade (e.g., Ansell and Vogel 2006; Blithe 2008c). Accounting standards specify how and when INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS AND STANDARD-SETTING BODIES 441

The Politics of City Regions in Comparative Perspective

Abstract: An age of the urban regionalism has arrived. Postindustrial capitalism is evolving in ways that give renewed importance to city regions. New forms of economic interdependence, the rise of specialized flexible production, the spread of new technologies, and other factors are making the city region a prominent node in today’s globalized economy. Although governments at all levels have been responding to manage this reality, political intervention remains a contentious matter because regional economic development has unleashed new political tensions over governance. Some tensions arise from economic obstacles to regional political cooperation. Other tensions arise from the urban political process in city regions. Many political interests, including entire governments, oppose political collaboration necessary for regional governance because it threatens them with loss of power, status or wealth. The political forces favoring resistance at the local and metropolitan levels tend to differ in the North American and Western European contexts, however.

Hot Economics, Cold Politics? Reexamining Economic Linkages and Political Tensions in Sino-Japanese Relations

Abstract: Scholars often claim that East Asia is characterized by “hot economics and cold politics.” While economic linkages between East Asian countries proliferate rapidly, mutual distrust and unresolved historical tensions seem to present a continual obstacle to the development of closer interregional political ties. This dynamic is particularly evident in the bilateral relationship between Japan and China. Though it has much to gain from trading with Japan, China continues to experience strong domestic anti-Japanese sentiment and periodic protests over issues such as history textbooks, territorial disputes, controversial Japanese statements about the Nanjing Massacre, and visits by politicians to the infamous Yasukuni Shrine. Despite the frequency with which the “hot economics, cold politics” thesis is invoked, however, there have been few attempts to test its accuracy or to specify the conditions under which it holds true. To what extent do firms react to these political debacles, and to what extent are the latter simply demonstrations of nationalist rhetoric?We attempt to tackle these questions by using a combination of event analysis and nonparametric matching techniques to examine the effects of three negative shocks in Sino-Japanese relations — the August 2003 poisoning of Chinese citizens by mustard gas left behind by the Japanese during World War II; the intrusion of a Chinese submarine into Japanese waters in September 2004; and the April 2005 anti-Japanese protests in China — on specific types of companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We also include two types of placebo tests to ensure that our research design is not indiscriminately affected by any type of political shock. Our findings indicate that when shocks are unexpected and have potentially large-scale consequences, companies dependent on the Asian sales marked are more negatively effected than otherwise similar companies. This suggests that a firm’s value is partially tied to Sino-Japanese bilateral relations and that political tensions are indeed important for the future of economic linkages in Asia. Our findings help to clarify the relationship between economic integration and political tensions between these two key countries, making a contribution to the growing literature on Asian regionalism. Moreover, these findings have significant implications for the broader literature on conflict and economic interdependence. As globalization pushes countries all over the world to become more economically interconnected to partners with whom they have longstanding political disagreements, it is increasingly important for analysts to develop a nuanced understanding of the complex nexus between economics and politics.

Current Global Imbalances: Might Keynes Be of Help?

Abstract: A large number of interpretations have been proposed for current global imbalances, with a variety of future scenarios for world economy. The perspective here adopted tries to be fully respectful of the assumption of global economic interdependence as well as to cope with the complexity of a political, and not exclusively an economic, problem. By the use of the three alternatives outlined by Keynes in his 1945 memorandum "Overseas Financial Policy in Stage III" for the restart of multilateralism at a global level, we propose to rearrange views about current imbalances according to the unilateral, bilateral or multilateral nature of the adjustment they propose - if any - for their unwinding. Comparisons are made between Keynes's "Starvation Corner" and "gloomy views", together with scenarios suggesting the need of unilateral adjustments. Keynes's "Temptation" is used to analyse views stating that global imbalances are sustainable due either to the working of market mechanisms, related to the strength of the American economy, or to the (tacit) agreement of a "revived Bretton Woods system". The parallel with Keynes's "Justice" leads to consider views highlighting shared responsibilities for the imbalances and prompting for collective actions to reduce them.

Security crisis and economic interdependence : a case study of inter-Korean trade (2002-2006)

Abstract: Modem security studies have demonstrated that military insecurity or confrontation create crucial obstacles in trade relationships between states. Unlike this widely accepted conclusion, the trade relationship between the ROK and the DPRK from 2002 to 2006 showed a stable growth despite increasingly hostile political confrontation and military tension caused by the North Korean nuclear program. This study analyzes under what conditions the security instability did not undermine economic interdependence and which factors predominantly affected the actors' behavior by focusing on South Korean SMEs. It will conclude that substantial change of inter-Korean relations after the summit talks in 2000 enabled the SMEs to continue to engage with the DPRK under the nuclear crisis. In terms of what actually motivated SMEs in these transactions, it will argue that South Korean businessmen's desperate desire to took for lower-cost production provided a key driving force for them to risk the military instability. This study will substantiate this argument by providing a result of structured survey of South Korean entrepreneurs who actually were involved in the inter-Korea trade in this particular period. By analyzing how security agenda and economic interest relates each other, this study will overcome either security-dominated or economy-centered bias in capturing the changed essence of inter-Korean relations.

Domestic sources of Japanese foreign policy activism: loss avoidance and demand coherence

Abstract: The conventional view in the field of international political economy ‐ that greater economic interdependence creates an incentive for active foreign policy engagement ‐ is hard to reconcile with Japan’s foreign economic policy. To explain this counterintuitive outcome, we develop a new model of domestic demand for policy activism that integrates strands of prospect theory, collective action, and interest aggregation. We argue that both the rationale for mobilization and lobbying capacity are essential elements in understanding the domestic demand for significant foreign policy departures. We apply this conceptual framework to Japanese foreign economic policy in two issue areas: finance (Japan’s response to the 1980s Latin American debt crisis and

China's Trade Relations with the United States in Perspective

Abstract: China’s trade relations with the United States over the past four decades is a topic that has not been fully dealt with in scholarly works. This paper charts the course of US-China economic relations since 1971, explains the principal forces stimulating growth and encouraging change and, finally, discusses how these two economic giants fit into an interlocking Asian and world economy. In reaction to the post-2008 financial downturn, advocates for a new world economic order have suggested a rebalancing of global demand, which will arguably become a major, politically charged issue in the US and in China in the years to come. Growing economic interdependence has quickly presented new challenges and opportunities, with issues such as human rights, Most-Favoured-Nation status, the Taiwan and Tibet question, and the huge American trade deficit threatening to cloud the relationship at times. With China’s emergence as a major power and America’s hegemonic ambitions tested in successive wars, the contradiction between a booming commercial relationship and conflict associated with geopolitical and ideological differences will continue to constitute a serious challenge. The long-term goal for each side will be to forge economic ties strong enough to create a stable political relationship, rather than to be held hostage by geopolitical constraints.

Particular Forms of Independence and Interdependence Are Adapted to Particular Kinds of Sociodemographic Environment: Commentary on Independence and Interdependence in Children's Developmental Experiences

Abstract: — In “Independence and Interdependence in Children’s Developmental Experiences,”C. Raeff (2010) sensitively depicts the interrelations of varying sorts of independence and interdependence within a given culture while showing the distinct ways in which these 2 overarching variables are structured across different cultures. Based on a new theory of social change and human development (P. M. Greenfield, 2009), the claim is that certain forms of interdependence and independence are well adapted to simple, small-scale, relatively poor, subsistence-based, isolated rural community settings in which lifelong extended family relations are central, large numbers of siblings are the norm, and education takes place informally at home, whereas other forms of interdependence and independence are well adapted to complex, large-scale, relatively rich, commerce-based, urbanized societies with multiple ties to the outside world, many opportunities for transitory relations with strangers, small families, and a highly developed system of formal education.

The Ties that Bind Asia, Europe, and United States

Abstract: We investigate changes in Asia’s regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe, and United States (US). We first document changes in trade patterns of East Asia, Europe, and US and discuss stylized facts about East Asia’s trade structure. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) plays a critical role as an assembly and production center in rapidly expanding intra-Asian trade. However, the PRC’s trade share in parts and components with Europe and the US is rising, suggesting that the region’s production chains are increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector auto-regression model generally confirm the positive effect of growing intra-Asian trade on both regional and global output comovements, reflecting the nature of intra-Asian trade that is heavily driven by external demand. However, macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe, and US is becoming more bidirectional, as shown by the positive effect of the East Asian aggregate output shock on both European and US outputs. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an increasingly important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.

Output and price linkages in asia's post-crisis macroeconomic interdependence

Abstract: The paper explores the nature of macroeconomic interdependence in post-crisis Asia. Empirical evidence suggests that, relative to the pre-crisis period, output and price correlations in Asia have increased and the output and price impacts of shocks originating within the region have risen. This greater interdependence, however, did not come at the expense of a weaker economic tie with the rest of the world (as clearly demonstrated in the recent global economic crisis). Asian policymakers must better manage the region's growing macroeconomic linkages through greater cooperation — both to mitigate the impact of negative policy spillovers and to foster an environment in which regional and global links can continue to deepen.

Democracy or death? Will democratisation bring greater regional instability to East Asia?

Abstract: The article challenges the view that democratisation is a recipe for regional disorder in East Asia. This view is not supported by evidence. Critics of democratisation fail to consider a number of mitigating factors that may check the destabilising consequences of democratisation while accentuating its peace-causing effects. These factors are not necessarily other liberal forces, like economic interdependence, or regional institutions, although these do matter. Certain dynamics associated with democratisation, such as focus on economic rebuilding for regime legitimation, positive nationalism (‘democratic pride’), involvement of civil society, etc., may lessen the potential for inter-state conflict. These mitigating factors do not necessarily correspond with the normative and institutionalist logic underpinning the democratic peace theory, and they have been largely overlooked by the critics of that theory. After identifying them, this paper shows that the East Asian experience does not show that ...

Turkey´s changing middle east policy

Abstract: This article aims to discuss recent developments in Turkey’s Middle East policy. After a brief historical background of Turkey’s relations with the region, it focuses on understanding the change in terms of both the level and nature of involvement in the region. Within that context, the article looks at systemic/structural as well as ideational and domestic politics explanations. Then the current policy is discussed through its three elements: improvement of relations with neighbors, characterized as “zero problems with neighbors policy”; eagerness to play third party roles in regional conflicts; attempts to increase economic interdependence with the region. Through the discussion of these cases the article attempts to discuss the possibilities and limitations of Turkey’s new engagement.

Persian Gulf – Pacific Asia linkages in the 21st century: a marriage of convenience?

Abstract: An important new relationship is developing between the six monarchies of the Persian Gulf and the three most industrialized states of Pacific Asia. With little shared modern economic history and enormous political and socio-economic disparities, and separated by great geographical distances, the rapidly tightening economic interdependence between the two regions is a recent phenomenon that deserves considerable attention. This paper dissects this by examining both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon trades between the two regions before turning to their increasingly bilateral sovereign wealth investments and their cooperation on major construction and infrastructural projects. The paper will then explain the absence of military security arrangements, but will also demonstrate how several other measures are being taken to create stronger non-economic bonds. Finally, a number of future collaborations will be discussed: for the most part these are not only innovative, but also highly symbolic of a more interdependent relationship.