Showing papers on "Futures studies published in 1997"
TL;DR: A review of recent activity in this area, with a special focus on a major UK government Foresight programme, can be found in this article, where a number of case studies emerging from this programme illustrate how Foressight can have a tangible impact on strategy.
82 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a framework to answer strategic questions such as "What might give us continued competitive advantage?" and "What new product or markets should we enter and how?" Both questions go to the heart of a firm's strategic vision.
Abstract: Senior executives commonly ponder such questions as "What might give us continued competitive advantage?" and "What new product or markets should we enter and how?" Both questions go to the heart of a firm's strategic vision. Such a vision can be defined as the shared understanding of what the firm should be and how it must change. This paper presents a framework to answer such questions critically as well as creatively. Knowing the answers constitutes the difference between muddling through and running the business from day to day with confidence and foresight. The method consists of the following four steps:
66 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed a procedure for strategic technology scanning, an activity that has received insufficient attention in the literature to date, and called for involvement of all levels of the corporate hierarchy-from the corporate board to the technology analyst.
56 citations
01 Jan 1997
37 citations
TL;DR: The authors reviewed the recent developments around three themes: the nature of science and technology as distinctive bodies of knowledge arising in different institutional contexts; the market failure approach and its development into an evolutionary rationale for science-and technology policy; and the UK Technology Foresight Programme as a specific example of the shift in the focus of Science and technology policy.
Abstract: In the past 15 years there have been major changes in the conduct of science and technology policy in advanced industrial countries. Recognizing that this is an area where Clem Tisdell has made notable contributions, reviews the recent developments around three themes: the nature of science and technology as distinctive bodies of knowledge arising in different institutional contexts; the market failure approach and its development into an evolutionary rationale for science and technology policy; and the UK Technology Foresight Programme as a specific example of the shift in the focus of science and technology policy.
37 citations
TL;DR: A taxonomy for futures methodologies based on their passive, preventive or anticipatory characteristics is proposed in this article, where the anticipatory methodologies are further categorised into subjective and numerical approaches.
36 citations
29 citations
01 Jan 1997
24 citations
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: In this paper, a detailed scenario of the way the World Wide Web may be used in global construction in the year 2001 is presented, which causes key questions to be asked regarding the impact of technology development in construction, and answers to these questions will help shape a key component of the research and innovation agenda for construction for what is left of this millennium.
Abstract: Information technology (IT) is fundamentally changing global construction business. TheInternet, and more specifically the World Wide Web (WWW) will be key to this change.Forecasting technological change is notoriously difficult. This is becoming furtherexacerbated by the increasingly evident cycles of over-hype and disillusionment that newtechnologies and management paradigms face.Science policy research has developed innovative forecasting methods to deal with such aproblem. Key within these is the use of scenarios to describe the integrative effects ofdevelopments in parallel technologies and their socio-economic context.This paper contains a detailed scenario of the way the WWW may be used in globalconstruction in the year 2001. Analysis of the scenario causes key questions to be askedregarding the impact of technology development in construction. These questions are inneed of urgent, serious consideration by: governments, senior construction executives,educators, students, researchers, recruiters, and new entrants to the industry.The answers to these questions will help shape a key component of the research andinnovation agenda for construction for what is left of this millennium.
23 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors consider three key areas where forward thinking is particularly vital: education, business and government and suggest a broad rationale for establishing a "national foresight strategy" based on examples from the Australian context.
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01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: The importance of scientific instrumentation national surveys of equipment and facilities case studies of investment needs in different disciplines is highlighted in this paper, where the symbiotic links between science, technology and industry new approaches to determining investment priorities in costly fields of research are discussed.
Abstract: The importance of scientific instrumentation national surveys of equipment and facilities case studies of investment needs in different disciplines initiatives to exploit equipment and facilities more effectively the symbiotic links between science, technology and industry new approaches to determining investment priorities in costly fields of research the role of foresight and planning techniques in determining future needs for equipment and facilities conclusions and policy implications.
TL;DR: A non-western reading of space, time, nature and self, contrasting itself with the liberal openness of much of futures studies by asserting a non-negotiatable core as discussed by the authors, includes a commitment to the family as a basic unit of analysis; inclusion of all sentient beings; belief in the repeatability of time; an intergenerational approach balancing ancestors and future generations; sustainable social and economic practices; a global focus; a spiritual and collective view towards choice and rationality; and the realization of a global ethics beyond postmodernity.
TL;DR: A little used and under-studied approach: that of near-future landscapes (NFLs) is surveyed, viewed as transitional forms that will be improved upon by greater interest in futures imaging processes and further developments in the technologies of graphic representation.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss issues of geographic scale, linkages between populations, and measurement, as well as possibilities for improved forecasts of demographic change, both because there is tremendous variation in fertility, migration, and mortality across the populations and because of the limitations of techniques of analysis and forecasting.
01 Jan 1997
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors consider different approaches of future studies to issues and favour the "vision" approach, and look at the role of futures studies in social sciences in general, since the Second World War and some possible outcomes of such trends in the near future.
Abstract: This article considers different approaches of Futures Studies to issues and favours the "vision" approach. It also looks at the role of Futures Studies in social sciences in general. It examines trends in the issue of unity and diversity, since the Second World War and some possible outcomes of such trends in the near future. PREVIOUS PUBLICATIONS: 5/97 Kaivo-oja, Jokinen & Malaska (1997) Kestävän kehityksen tietoyhteiskunta: teoreettisia ja käsitteellisiä näkökulmia. 4/97 Kamppinen, Matti (1997) Teknologian riskit ja tulevaisuus. 3/97 Mettler, Peter H. (1997) Sustainable Technology – Sustainability of What? 2/97 Kamppinen, Matti (1997) Cultural Models of Risk – The Multiple Meanings of Living in the World of Dangerous Possibilities. 1/97 Malaska, Pentti (1997) Sustainable Development as Post-Modern Culture.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors propose an agricultural knowledge system that will think ahead, both in the "theory" and the "practice" of knowledge processes, and they take into account several skills that are essential for researchers to be adequate partners in innovation processes, including skills in making research designs, alternately applying "microscopic" and "wide-angle" perspectives (mixed scanning), and transcending disciplinary boundaries (transdisciplinarity).
Abstract: 1. Today, after having focused on Research, Extension and Education (the so-called 'REE-triptych') for over a century, the agricultural knowledge system is in a phase of transition. New roads should be taken to establish agricultural knowledge policies that will think ahead - both in the 'theory' and the 'practice' of knowledge processes. 2. Modeling innovation processes along linear perspectives is increasingly less productive; both knowledge-driven models (such as the classical REE concept) and market-driven perceptions are insufficient to implement a fresh and adequate policy of agricultural innovation. 3. Generating knowledge, developing technologies and skills, and innovating are three fundamentally different activities. Agricultural knowledge policies should be designed to create the most favorable conditions for the production of knowledge, the development of technologies and skills, and innovation - both separately and combined. 4. In order for innovation policies to be successful it should be recognized that knowledge is only one of the essential ingredients of successful innovation and that research is only one way of amassing knowledge. 5. Several skills that are essential for researchers to be adequate partners in innovation processes have been given insufficient attention in research training and education. More specifically they include skills in making research designs, alternately applying 'microscopic' and 'wide-angle' perspectives (mixed scanning), and transcending disciplinary boundaries (transdisciplinarity). 6. In 21st century society Dutch agriculture will have the best prospects if it is decided to develop a multiform type of agriculture. 7. In order to develop sustainable agriculture and to improve the vitality of the countryside while at the same time realizing the required system innovations, government activities should not be confined to a policy of creating essential preconditions and supporting social initiative. Rather, the government should also play the role of an innovative entrepreneur - in close cooperation with private enterprise, social organizations and knowledge institutes. In addition, new strategic alliances between private enterprise, social organizations, knowledge institutes, and government bodies will be necessary to shape system innovations. 8. In order to be able to adopt a strong innovation policy for agribusiness and green space in the years to come part of the Ministry's budget will have to be used to fund innovation themes rather than research programs. This transformation may be effected by setting up a fund of NLG 300 million to develop knowledge and technologies for the purpose of system innovations. The funds should be employed for the benefit of a limited number of keenly selected innovation themes with strategic future relevance. Selected issues should be based on thorough foresight studies involving key actors from private enterprise, social organizations, knowledge institutes and government bodies who are favorably disposed towards innovation.
TL;DR: Stout summarises the three "Cs" that will be needed if the Foresight Programme is to achieve its aim of empowering far-sighted investment for the next generation of stakeholders in British society.
Abstract: David Stout summarises the three “Cs” that will be needed if the Foresight Programme is to achieve its aim of empowering far-sighted investment for the next generation of stakeholders in British society.
TL;DR: In this paper, a range of political, economic, religious, and philosophical assumptions are discussed in terms of how they influence one's view of the future and their application in teaching about long-range implications of contemporary actions.
TL;DR: In the case of the automotive industry, the change from market-based approaches to collaborative relations has included earlier and more profound commitments to part design, downstream dependent manufacture and delivery (JIT), constancy of production, higher quality, and falling unit costs as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: Whilst the automotive industry celebrates its centenary, in this same period relationships between manufacturing organisations and their component suppliers have experienced a sea change due to the advent of global competition. In the case of the automotive components industry, the change from market‐based approaches to collaborative relations has included earlier and more profound commitments to part design, downstream dependent manufacture and delivery (JIT), constancy of production, higher quality, and falling unit costs (Womack et al 1990; Lamming, 1994). If the latter part of the twentieth century can be characterised as one of uncertainty, discontinuity and unreason, so too must the concept of strategy. Seen as the art and science of management exercised to meet the competition in the marketplace under more favourable conditions, the search for sustainable competitive advantage has become the centre‐point of strategic management yet has marginalised re‐source‐based views of the firm for much of this period. Successful organisations are seen to be those who match the opportunities and threats in their environments using their capabilities, known through the continuous analysis and development of internal proficiencies. Known as the concept of ‘best‐fit’ and popularised by ‘SWOT’ type analyses, strategy theory has suggested a linear process involving mission/goal setting and review, internal and external analysis, strategic choice, implementation, and feedback and control. However, such organisational analysis has tended to follow functional boundaries, often eliciting functional bias. Other approaches have centred upon the value/cost generating operations in the manufacturing/delivery process (Porter, 1985). Quantification of organisational attributes has often been sought or espoused at the expense of relevance and explanatory power, yet it can be readily acknowledged that soft systems, tacit knowledge and behaviour, and foresight play a part in determining organisational configuration. At the dawn of a golden age for the discipline the perceived constraints of pedagogy, the need to quantify and the stubborn orthodoxies of planning have given rise to situation that Whittington describes as follows: “If there was really so much agreement on the fundamentals of corporate strategy, then strategic decisions would not be so hard to make” (1993:1). Clearly, firms are historical and social entities, often influenced by the organisations and resources closest to them.