Showing papers on "Runaway climate change published in 1991"

Global warming and climate change in Mexico

Abstract: Climate models suggest that global warming could bring warmer, drier conditions to Mexico. Although precipitation increases are projected by some models, in most cases they do not compensate for increases in potential evaporation. Thus, soil moisture and water availability may decrease over much of Mexico with serious consequences for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, urban and industrial water supplies, hydropower and ecosystems. However, the assessment of global warming impacts in Mexico is an uncertain task because the projections of different models vary widely, particularly for precipitation, and because they perform poorly in reproducing the observed climate of Mexico.

Formulating Greenhouse Policies in a Sea of Uncertainty

Abstract: To prevent major global climate change all countries must begin to act now. However, there is no agreement on how rapidly greenhouse gases will be emitted over the next century, how rapidly they will accumulate in the atmosphere, what will be the cost of abatement, how large the climate change will be, or even whether the change will be predominantly beneficial or harmful. Beyond agreeing that greenhouse gases are likely to result in atmospheric warming, other factors held constant, there is no consensus on any of these questions.

How to slow global warming

Abstract: A General Agreement on Climate Change would accommodate the diverse and changing interests of nations as they seek to slowglobal warming alongside other socioeconomic objectives

The conflict over global warming

Abstract: Sophisticated computer models have been employed by the United Nations Environment Programme's Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to assess past variations of world climate and to project possible trends over the next century. Attention has focused on the growing concentration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. Critics in scientific and policy professions hold that simulation models are not yet adequate to guide policy decisions. Many western governments dissent from this judgment and insist that a 20% reduction in CO 2 emissions should be achieved within 15 years and that remedial policies must be adopted to prevent catastrophic climate change. The proposed remedies range from saving tropical rain forests to forced conservation of energy or taxation of fossil-fuel combustion. A consensus is emerging in the scientific community to endorse a ‘no regrets’ policy that involves buying various kinds of ‘insurance’ against future global warming.

The detection of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect

Abstract: The greenhouse effect is accepted as an undisputed fact from both theoretical and observational considerations. In Earth's atmosphere, the primary greenhouse gas is water vapor. The specific concern today is that increasing concentrations of anthropogenically introduced greenhouse gases will, sooner or later, irreversibly alter the climate of Earth. Detecting climate change has been complicated by uncertainties in historical observations and measurements. Thus, the primary concern for the GEDEX project is how can climate change and enhanced greenhouse effects be unambiguously detected and quantified. Specifically examined are the areas of: Earth surface temperature; the free atmosphere (850 millibars and above); space-based measurements; measurement uncertainties; and modeling the observed temperature record.

EPA's Scenarios for Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Warming

Abstract: risks of global warming regardless of uncertainties about the response of the climate system . Scenario analyses conducted by EPA for a Report to Congress on Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate indicate that if no policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions are undertaken , the equivalent of a doubling of carbon dioxide would occur between 2030 and 2040 , and the Earth might be committed to a global warming of 2-4°C(3-7°F)by 2025 and 3-6°C(4-10°F) by 2050. Early application of existing and emergingtechnologies designed among other things, to increase the efficiency of energy use, expand the use of non-fossil energy sources , reverse deforestation, and phase out chlorofluorocarbons , could reduce the globalwarming commitment in 2025 by about one-fourth, and the rate of climatic change during the next century by at least 60%. A global commitment to rapidly reducing greenhouse gas emissions could stabilize the concentrations of these gases by the middle of the next century, perhaps limiting global warming to less than 2 °C (3 °F).

Catastrophic Climate Change

Abstract: Book chapter analyzing the relationship between climate change and the international political and legal system.

Global Climate Change (GCC) Issues and Their Impacts on the US Army Corps of Engineers

Abstract: : This report is a survey of recent findings and arguments within the scientific arena on the subject of global climate change. The focus of this report looks at global, continental, and regional issues, as well as surface and upper atmospheric effects. Potential responses by the biosphere as well as the impacts on Army operations by global climate change are examined. The geologic past provides a detailed record of Earth's climate system. It also reveals changes that took place in the concentration of atmospheric gasses as Earth's climate switched from glacial to interglacial periods. The secular record of temperature shows that Earth's climate has warmed from 0.5 C to 0.7 C this past century. The world's populace is injecting tremendous amounts of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere at a rate where the effective doubling of pre- industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration could occur between the years 2035 to 2050. Clouds have been found to have a net cooling effect on the global average temperature. Anthropogenic pollutants and gasses produced from biological sources may increase the amount of clouds around the world, thus adding to the cooling effect. Aftereffects of volcanic eruption, and gasses emitted by phytoplankton that lead to cloud formation retard global warming. Weapon and support systems may require upgraded data bases to match vegetation changes due to evolving climate patterns.