Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

An Astronomically Tuned Neogene Time Scale (ATNTS2012) is presented, as an update of ATNTS2004 in GTS2004. The new scale is not fundamentally different from its predecessor and the numerical ages are identical or almost so. Astronomical tuning has in principle the potential of generating a stable Neogene time scale as a function of the accuracy of the La2004 astronomical solution used for both scales. Minor problems remain in the tuning of the Lower Miocene. In GTS2012 we will summarize what has been modified or added since the publication of ATNTS2004 for incorporation in its successor, ATNTS2012. Mammal biostratigraphy and its chronology are elaborated, and the regional Neogene stages of the Paratethys and New Zealand are briefy discussed. To keep changes to ATNTS2004 transparent we maintain its subdivision into headings as much as possible.

The Neogene Period

Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity can only be obtained using a method based upon indirect proxies, such as the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give an historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that this method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene. A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of strong solar energetic-particle (SEP) events in the past, that suggest that the present-day average SEP flux is broadly consistent with estimates on longer timescales, and that the occurrence of extra-strong events is unlikely. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.

/pdf/a-history-of-solar-activity-over-millennia-40h7a5f8w2.pdf

A History of Solar Activity over Millennia

Using full-colour palaeogeographical maps from the Cambrian to the present, this interdisciplinary volume explains how plate motions and surface volcanism are linked to processes in the Earth's mantle, and to climate change and the evolution of the Earth's biota. These new and very detailed maps provide a complete and integrated Phanerozoic story of palaeogeography. They illustrate the development of all the major mountain-building orogenies. Old lands, seas, ice caps, volcanic regions, reefs, and coal beds are highlighted on the maps, as well as faunal and floral provinces. Many other original diagrams show sections from the Earth's core, through the mantle, and up to the lithosphere, and how Large Igneous Provinces are generated, helping to understand how plates have appeared, moved, and vanished through time. Supplementary resources are available online, making this an invaluable reference for researchers, graduate students, professional geoscientists and anyone interested in the geological history of the Earth.

Earth History and Palaeogeography

Context. Long-term records of solar radiative output are vital for understanding solar variability and past climate change. Measurements of solar irradiance are available for only the last three decades, which calls for reconstructions of this quantity over longer time scales using suitable models. Aims. We present a physically consistent reconstruction of the total solar irradiance for the Holocene. Methods. We extend the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) models to estimate the evolution of the total (and partly spectral) solar irradiance over the Holocene. The basic assumption is that the variations of the solar irradiance are due to the evolution of the dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The evolution of the decadally averaged magnetic flux is computed from decadal values of cosmogenic isotope concentrations recorded in natural archives employing a series of physics-based models connecting the processes from the modulation of the cosmic ray flux in the heliosphere to their record in natural archives. We then compute the total solar irradiance (TSI) as a linear combination of the jth and jth + 1 decadal values of the open magnetic flux. In order to evaluate the uncertainties due to the evolution of the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment, we employ four reconstructions of the open flux which are based on conceptually different paleomagnetic models. Results. Reconstructions of the TSI over the Holocene, each valid for a different paleomagnetic time series, are presented. Our analysis suggests that major sources of uncertainty in the TSI in this model are the heritage of the uncertainty of the TSI since 1610 reconstructed from sunspot data and the uncertainty of the evolution of the Earth’s magnetic dipole moment. The analysis of the distribution functions of the reconstructed irradiance for the last 3000 years, which is the period that the reconstructions overlap, indicates that the estimates based on the virtual axial dipole moment are significantly lower at earlier times than the reconstructions based on the virtual dipole moment. We also present a combined reconstruction, which represents our best estimate of total solar irradiance for any given time during the Holocene. Conclusions. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of the total solar irradiance over the Holocene, which will be of interest for studies of climate change over the last 11 500 years. The reconstruction indicates that the decadally averaged total solar irradiance ranges over approximately 1.5 W/m 2 from grand maxima to grand minima.

/pdf/evolution-of-the-solar-irradiance-during-the-holocene-2brt2tdojk.pdf

Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene

[1] A global data set of archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data covering the past 7000 years has been compiled. It consists of 16,085 results of inclination, 13,080 of declination, and 3188 of intensity for the time span 5000 BC to 1950 AD. Declination and inclination data come partly from existing databases and partly from original literature. A new global compilation of intensity data for the millennial scale is included. Data and dating uncertainties are discussed as we attempted to obtain an internally coherent data set. The global distribution of the data is very inhomogeneous in both time and space. All the data are compared to predictions from the previous 3000 year global model, CALS3K.1. This collection of data will be useful for global secular variation studies and geomagnetic field modeling, although southern hemisphere data are still underrepresented. In particular, we will use it in a further study to update and extend the existing global model, CALS3K.1. The huge increase in data compared to the previous compilation will result in significant changes from current models. As we might have missed some suitable data, we encourage the reader to notify us about any data that have not been included yet and might fit in, as improving our global millennial scale models remains our aim for the future. The data files described in this paper are available from the EarthRef Digital Archive (ERDA) at http://earthref.org/cgi-bin/erda.cgi?n=331.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2004GC000800

Continuous geomagnetic field models for the past 7 millennia: 1. A new global data compilation

[1] Paleointensity determinations based on double heating techniques (in-field/zero-field cooling, zero-field/in-field cooling, and two in-field steps with opposite laboratory fields) are generally considered to be functionally interchangeable producing equally reliable paleointensity estimates. To investigate this premise, we have developed a simple mathematical model. We find that both the zero-field first and in-field first methods have a strong angular dependence on the laboratory field (parallel, orthogonal, and anti-parallel) while the two in-field steps method is independent of the direction of the laboratory-produced field. Contrary to common practice, each method yields quite different outcomes if the condition of reciprocity of blocking and unblocking temperatures is not met, even with marginal (10%) tails of partial thermoremanence. Our calculations suggest that the zero field first method with the laboratory-produced field anti-parallel to the natural remanence (NRM) is the most robust paleointensity determination technique when the intensity of the lab-induced field is smaller than ancient field. However, the zero field first method with the laboratory-field parallel to the NRM is the optimum approach when the intensity of the lab-induced field is larger than the ancient field. By far the best approach, however, is to alternatethe infield-zerofield (IZ) steps with zerofield-infield (ZI) steps.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2003GC000630

Toward an optimal geomagnetic field intensity determination technique

Three millennia of directional variation of the Earth’s magnetic field in western Europe as revealed by archeological artefacts

[1] This paper presents a compilation of intensity data covering the past 10 millennia (ArcheoInt). This compilation, which upgrades the one of Korte et al. (2005), contains 3648 data and incorporates additional intensity and directional data sets. A large majority of these data ($87%) were acquired on archeological artifacts, and the remaining $13% correspond to data obtained from volcanic products. The present compilation also includes important metadata for evaluating the intensity data quality and providing a foundation to guide improved selection criteria. We show that $50% of the data set fulfill reasonable reliability standards which take into account the anisotropic nature of most studied objects (potsherds), the stability of the magnetization, and the data dispersion. The temporal and geographical distributions of this sub–data set are similar to those of the main data set, with $72% of the data dated from the past three millennia and $76% obtained from western Eurasia. Approximately half of the selected intensity data are associated with at least an inclination value. To constrain the axial and full dipole evolution over the past three millennia requires that we avoid any overrepresentation of the western Eurasian data. We introduce a first-order regional weighting scheme based on the definition of eight widely distributed regions of 30° width within which the selected data are numerous enough. The regional curves of virtual axial dipole moments (VADM) and of mixed VADM-virtual dipole moments (VDM) averaged over sliding windows of 200 years and 500 years testify for strong contributions from either equatorial dipole or nondipole components. The computation of global VADM and mixed VADM/VDM variation curves, assuming an equal weight for each region, yields a dipole evolution marked by a distinct minimum around 0 B.C./A.D. followed by a maximum around the third-fourth century A.D. A second minimum is present around the eighth century A.D. This variation pattern is compatible with the one deduced from earlier, more

/pdf/archeoint-an-upgraded-compilation-of-geomagnetic-field-1urc3fylbp.pdf

ArcheoInt: An upgraded compilation of geomagnetic field intensity data for the past ten millennia and its application to the recovery of the past dipole moment

[1] We studied 14 groups of French pottery fragments dated between the 4th and 16th centuries. The potsherds were analyzed using the Thellier and Thellier [1959] method, revised by Coe [1967]. Intensity values were corrected for thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) anisotropy and cooling rate dependence of TRM acquisition. We first analyzed modern ceramics produced following ancient techniques and fired in a wood-burning kiln inside of which field intensity was measured. The recovered mean intensity is within ∼3% of the expected value, which proves the reliability of our experimental procedure. Thermal experiments carried out at rapid and slow cooling rates clearly indicate that the cooling rate correction is critical in archeointensity studies. Our data indicate that large variations in intensity occurred in France over the last 2000 years. Two relative maxima in intensity are observed, one between the 8th and 10th centuries and the second between the 14th and 15th centuries. Similarities are observed between the archeointensity data from France and Ukraine, yielding some evidence for eastward drift of geomagnetic sources between western and eastern Europe from A.D. 800 to A.D. 1700. We also show that the dipole moment evolution proposed by McElhinny and Senanayake [1982] and Yang et al. [2000] for the last two millennia is likely biased toward higher values, mainly because of the absence of correction for the cooling rate dependence of TRM acquisition in most published archeointensity studies. We finally underline a possible relationship, valid at least in western Europe, between changes in direction and intensity of the geomagnetic field.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2001JB000701

Agnès Genevey

Papers

Continuous geomagnetic field models for the past 7 millennia: 1. A new global data compilation

Toward an optimal geomagnetic field intensity determination technique

Three millennia of directional variation of the Earth’s magnetic field in western Europe as revealed by archeological artefacts

ArcheoInt: An upgraded compilation of geomagnetic field intensity data for the past ten millennia and its application to the recovery of the past dipole moment

Intensity of the geomagnetic field in western Europe over the past 2000 years: New data from ancient French pottery