In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Pedagosko i psiholosko testiranje i procjenjivanje spadaju među najvažnije doprinose znanosti o ponasanju nasem drustvu i pružaju temeljna i znacajna poboljsanja u odnosu na ranije postupke. Iako se ne može ustvrditi da su svi testovi dovoljno usavrseni niti da su sva testiranja razborita i korisna, postoji velika kolicina informacija koje ukazuju na ucinkovitost kvalitetnih instrumenata u onim situacijama u kojima je njihovo koristenje potkrijepljeno validacijskim podacima. Pravilna upotreba testova može dovesti do boljih odluka o pojedincima i programima nego sto bi to bio slucaj bez njihovog koristenja, a također i ukazati na put za siri i pravedniji pristup obrazovanju i zaposljavanju. Međutim, losa upotreba testova može dovesti do zamjetne stete nanesene ispitanicima i drugim sudionicima u procesu donosenja odluka na temelju testovnih podataka. Cilj Standarda je promoviranje kvalitetne i eticne upotrebe testova te uspostavljanje osnovice za ocjenu kvalitete postupaka testiranja. Svrha objavljivanja Standarda je uspostavljanje kriterija za evaluaciju testova, provedbe testiranja i posljedica upotrebe testova. Iako bi evaluacija prikladnosti testa ili njegove primjene trebala ovisiti prvenstveno o strucnim misljenjima, Standardi pružaju okvir koji osigurava obuhvacanje svih relevantnih pitanja. Bilo bi poželjno da svi autori, sponzori, nakladnici i korisnici profesionalnih testova usvoje Standarde te da poticu druge da ih također prihvate.

Standards for educational and psychological testing

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Applied Missing Data Analysis

Evaluating Model Fit

Factor analysis models with ordinal indicators are often estimated using a 3-stage procedure where the last stage involves obtaining parameter estimates by least squares from the sample polychoric correlations. A simulation study involving 324 conditions (1,000 replications per condition) was performed to compare the performance of diagonally weighted least squares (DWLS) and unweighted least squares (ULS) in the procedure's third stage. Overall, both methods provided accurate and similar results. However, ULS was found to provide more accurate and less variable parameter estimates, as well as more precise standard errors and better coverage rates. Nevertheless, convergence rates for DWLS are higher. Our recommendation is therefore to use ULS, and, in the case of nonconvergence, to use DWLS, as this method might converge when ULS does not.

/pdf/factor-analysis-with-ordinal-indicators-a-monte-carlo-study-1phogtaey6.pdf

Factor Analysis with Ordinal Indicators: A Monte Carlo Study Comparing DWLS and ULS Estimation

This study investigated the effect the number of observed variables (p) has on three structural equation modeling indices: the comparative fit index (CFI), the Tucker-Lewis index (TLI), and the root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA). The behaviors of the population fit indices and their sample estimates were compared under various conditions created by manipulating the number of observed variables, the types of model misspecification, the sample size, and the magnitude of factor loadings. The results showed that the effect of p on the population CFI and TLI depended on the type of specification error, whereas a higher p was associated with lower values of the population RMSEA regardless of the type of model misspecification. In finite samples, all three fit indices tended to yield estimates that suggested a worse fit than their population counterparts, which was more pronounced with a smaller sample size, higher p, and lower factor loading.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0013164418783530

Understanding the Model Size Effect on SEM Fit Indices

Multidimensional forced-choice formats can significantly reduce the impact of numerous response biases typically associated with rating scales. However, if scored with classical methodology, these questionnaires produce ipsative data, which lead to distorted scale relationships and make comparisons between individuals problematic. This research demonstrates how item response theory (IRT) modeling may be applied to overcome these problems. A multidimensional IRT model based on Thurstone’s framework for comparative data is introduced, which is suitable for use with any forced-choice questionnaire composed of items fitting the dominance response model, with any number of measured traits, and any block sizes (i.e., pairs, triplets, quads, etc.). Thurstonian IRT models are normal ogive models with structured factor loadings, structured uniquenesses, and structured local dependencies. These models can be straightforwardly estimated using structural equation modeling (SEM) software Mplus. A number of simulation studies are performed to investigate how latent traits are recovered under various forced-choice designs and provide guidelines for optimal questionnaire design. An empirical application is given to illustrate how the model may be applied in practice. It is concluded that when the recommended design guidelines are met, scores estimated from forced-choice questionnaires with the proposed methodology reproduce the latent traits well.

/pdf/item-response-modeling-of-forced-choice-questionnaires-357wjnmadd.pdf

Item response modeling of forced-choice questionnaires.

The performance of parameter estimates and standard errors in estimating F. Samejima's graded response model was examined across 324 conditions. Full information maximum likelihood (FIML) was compared with a 3-stage estimator for categorical item factor analysis (CIFA) when the unweighted least squares method was used in CIFA's third stage. CIFA is much faster in estimating multidimensional models, particularly with correlated dimensions. Overall, CIFA yields slightly more accurate parameter estimates, and FIML yields slightly more accurate standard errors. Yet, across most conditions, differences between methods are negligible. FIML is the best election in small sample sizes (200 observations). CIFA is the best election in larger samples (on computational grounds). Both methods failed in a number of conditions, most of which involved 200 observations, few indicators per dimension, highly skewed items, or low factor loadings. These conditions are to be avoided in applications.

/pdf/estimation-of-irt-graded-response-models-limited-versus-full-vdf2l886p7.pdf

Estimation of IRT graded response models: limited versus full information methods.

Classical accounts of maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of structural equation models for continuous outcomes involve normality assumptions: standard errors (SEs) are obtained using the expected information matrix and the goodness of fit of the model is tested using the likelihood ratio (LR) statistic. Satorra and Bentler (1994) introduced SEs and mean adjustments or mean and variance adjustments to the LR statistic (involving also the expected information matrix) that are robust to nonnormality. However, in recent years, SEs obtained using the observed information matrix and alternative test statistics have become available. We investigate what choice of SE and test statistic yields better results using an extensive simulation study. We found that robust SEs computed using the expected information matrix coupled with a mean- and variance-adjusted LR test statistic (i.e., MLMV) is the optimal choice, even with normally distributed data, as it yielded the best combination of accurate SEs and Type I errors.

Alberto Maydeu-Olivares

Papers

Factor Analysis with Ordinal Indicators: A Monte Carlo Study Comparing DWLS and ULS Estimation

Understanding the Model Size Effect on SEM Fit Indices

Item response modeling of forced-choice questionnaires.

Estimation of IRT graded response models: limited versus full information methods.

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Structural Equation Models for Continuous Data: Standard Errors and Goodness of Fit