THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

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https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fjit.1991.9.pdf

Strategic planning for information systems

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Supermodularity And Complementarity

Consider the newsvendor model, but under the assumption that the underlying demand distribution is not known as part of the input. Instead, the only information available is a random, independent sample drawn from the demand distribution. This paper analyzes the sample average approximation SAA approach for the data-driven newsvendor problem. We obtain a new analytical bound on the probability that the relative regret of the SAA solution exceeds a threshold. This bound is significantly tighter than existing bounds, and it matches the empirical accuracy of the SAA solution observed in extensive computational experiments. This bound reveals that the demand distribution's weighted mean spread affects the accuracy of the SAA heuristic.

/pdf/the-data-driven-newsvendor-problem-new-bounds-and-insights-4qulf49bve.pdf

The Data-Driven Newsvendor Problem: New Bounds and Insights

An ensemble framework based on convolutional bi-directional LSTM with multiple time windows for remaining useful life estimation

Remaining useful lifetime prediction via deep domain adaptation

Most of the literature on inventory management assumes that the demand distribution and the values of its parameters are known with certainty. In this paper, we consider a repeated newsvendor setting where this is not the case and study the problem of setting inventory targets when there is a limited amount of historical demand data. Consequently, we achieve the following objectives: (1) to quantify the inaccuracy in the inventory-target estimation as a function of the length of the historical demand data, the critical fractile, and the shape parameters of the demand distribution; and (2) to determine the inventory target that minimizes the expected cost and accounts for the uncertainty around the demand parameters estimated from limited historical data. We achieve these objectives by using the concept of expected total operating cost and representing the demand distribution with the highly flexible Johnson translation system. Our procedures require no restrictive assumptions about the first four moments of the demand random variables, and they can be easily implemented in practical settings with reduced expected total operating costs.

Improved Inventory Targets in the Presence of Limited Historical Demand Data

Recent works using deep learning to solve the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) have focused on learning construction heuristics. Such approaches find TSP solutions of good quality but require additional procedures such as beam search and sampling to improve solutions and achieve state-of-the-art performance. However, few studies have focused on improvement heuristics, where a given solution is improved until reaching a near-optimal one. In this work, we propose to learn a local search heuristic based on 2-opt operators via deep reinforcement learning. We propose a policy gradient algorithm to learn a stochastic policy that selects 2-opt operations given a current solution. Moreover, we introduce a policy neural network that leverages a pointing attention mechanism, which unlike previous works, can be easily extended to more general k-opt moves. Our results show that the learned policies can improve even over random initial solutions and approach near-optimal solutions at a faster rate than previous state-of-the-art deep learning methods.

Learning 2-opt Heuristics for the Traveling Salesman Problem via Deep Reinforcement Learning

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has proven to be a useful tool for assessing efficiency or productivity of organizations, which is of vital practical importance in managerial decision making. DEA provides a significant amount of information from which analysts and managers derive insights and guidelines to promote their existing performances. Regarding to this fact, effective and methodologic analysis and interpretation of DEA results are very critical. The main objective of this study is then to develop a general decision support system (DSS) framework to analyze the results of basic DEA models. The paper formally shows how the results of DEA models should be structured so that these solutions can be examined and interpreted by analysts through information visualization and data mining techniques effectively. An innovative and convenient DEA solver, SmartDEA, is designed and developed in accordance with the proposed analysis framework. The developed software provides DEA results which are consistent with the framework and are ready-to-analyze with data mining tools, thanks to their specially designed table-based structures. The developed framework is tested and applied in a real world project for benchmarking the vendors of a leading Turkish automotive company. The results show the effectiveness and the efficacy of the proposed framework.

https://research.sabanciuniv.edu/19053/2/akcay_et_al_Expert_Systems_with_Applications.pdf

Analyzing the solutions of DEA through information visualization and data mining techniques: SmartDEA framework

In Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) sufficient prior observed degradation data is usually critical for Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL) prediction. Most previous data-driven prediction methods assume that training (source) and testing (target) condition monitoring data have similar distributions. However, due to different operating conditions, fault modes, noise and equipment updates distribution shift exists across different data domains. This shift reduces the performance of predictive models previously built to specific conditions when no observed run-to-failure data is available for retraining. To address this issue, this paper proposes a new data-driven approach for domain adaptation in prognostics using Long Short-Term Neural Networks (LSTM). We use a time window approach to extract temporal information from time-series data in a source domain with observed RUL values and a target domain containing only sensor information. We propose a Domain Adversarial Neural Network (DANN) approach to learn domain-invariant features that can be used to predict the RUL in the target domain. The experimental results show that the proposed method can provide more reliable RUL predictions under datasets with different operating conditions and fault modes. These results suggest that the proposed method offers a promising approach to performing domain adaptation in practical PHM applications.

Alp Akcay

Papers

Remaining useful lifetime prediction via deep domain adaptation

Improved Inventory Targets in the Presence of Limited Historical Demand Data

Learning 2-opt Heuristics for the Traveling Salesman Problem via Deep Reinforcement Learning

Analyzing the solutions of DEA through information visualization and data mining techniques: SmartDEA framework

Remaining Useful Lifetime Prediction via Deep Domain Adaptation