Access to clean, affordable and reliable energy has been a cornerstone of the world's increasing prosperity and economic growth since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Our use of energy in the twenty–first century must also be sustainable. Solar and water–based energy generation, and engineering of microbes to produce biofuels are a few examples of the alternatives. This Perspective puts these opportunities into a larger context by relating them to a number of aspects in the transportation and electricity generation sectors. It also provides a snapshot of the current energy landscape and discusses several research and development opportunities and pathways that could lead to a prosperous, sustainable and secure energy future for the world.

Opportunities and challenges for a sustainable energy future

A Treatise on the Family. G. S. Becker. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 1981. Gary Becker is one of the most famous and influential economists of the second half of the 20th century, a fervent contributor to and expounder of the University of Chicago free-market philosophy, and winner of the 1992 Nobel Prize in economics. Although any book with the word "treatise" in its title is clearly intended to have an impact, one coming from someone as brilliant and controversial as Becker certainly had such a lofty goal. It has received many article-length reviews in several disciplines (Ben-Porath, 1982; Bergmann, 1995; Foster, 1993; Hannan, 1982), which is one measure of its scholarly importance, and yet its impact is, I think, less than it may have initially appeared, especially for scholars with substantive interests in the family. This book is, its title notwithstanding, more about economics and the economic approach to behavior than about the family. In the first sentence of the preface, Becker writes "In this book, I develop an economic or rational choice approach to the family." Lest anyone accuse him of focusing on traditional (i.e., material) economics topics, such as family income, poverty, and labor supply, he immediately emphasizes that those topics are not his focus. "My intent is more ambitious: to analyze marriage, births, divorce, division of labor in households, prestige, and other non-material behavior with the tools and framework developed for material behavior." Indeed, the book includes chapters on many of these issues. One chapter examines the principles of the efficient division of labor in households, three analyze marriage and divorce, three analyze various child-related issues (fertility and intergenerational mobility), and others focus on broader family issues, such as intrafamily resource allocation. His analysis is not, he believes, constrained by time or place. His intention is "to present a comprehensive analysis that is applicable, at least in part, to families in the past as well as the present, in primitive as well as modern societies, and in Eastern as well as Western cultures." His tone is profoundly conservative and utterly skeptical of any constructive role for government programs. There is a clear sense of how much better things were in the old days of a genderbased division of labor and low market-work rates for married women. Indeed, Becker is ready and able to show in Chapter 2 that such a state of affairs was efficient and induced not by market or societal discrimination (although he allows that it might exist) but by small underlying household productivity differences that arise primarily from what he refers to as "complementarities" between caring for young children while carrying another to term. Most family scholars would probably find that an unconvincingly simple explanation for a profound and complex phenomenon. What, then, is the salient contribution of Treatise on the Family? It is not literally the idea that economics could be applied to the nonmarket sector and to family life because Becker had already established that with considerable success and influence. At its core, microeconomics is simple, characterized by a belief in the importance of prices and markets, the role of self-interested or rational behavior, and, somewhat less centrally, the stability of preferences. It was Becker's singular and invaluable contribution to appreciate that the behaviors potentially amenable to the economic approach were not limited to phenomenon with explicit monetary prices and formal markets. Indeed, during the late 1950s and throughout the 1960s, he did undeniably important and pioneering work extending the domain of economics to such topics as labor market discrimination, fertility, crime, human capital, household production, and the allocation of time. Nor is Becker's contribution the detailed analyses themselves. Many of them are, frankly, odd, idiosyncratic, and off-putting. …

A Treatise on the Family

Framework Convention on Climate Change

Stabilizing the carbon dioxide-induced component of climate change is an energy problem. Establishment of a course toward such stabilization will require the development within the coming decades of primary energy sources that do not emit carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, in addition to efforts to reduce end-use energy demand. Mid-century primary power requirements that are free of carbon dioxide emissions could be several times what we now derive from fossil fuels (approximately 10(13) watts), even with improvements in energy efficiency. Here we survey possible future energy sources, evaluated for their capability to supply massive amounts of carbon emission-free energy and for their potential for large-scale commercialization. Possible candidates for primary energy sources include terrestrial solar and wind energy, solar power satellites, biomass, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, fission-fusion hybrids, and fossil fuels from which carbon has been sequestered. Non-primary power technologies that could contribute to climate stabilization include efficiency improvements, hydrogen production, storage and transport, superconducting global electric grids, and geoengineering. All of these approaches currently have severe deficiencies that limit their ability to stabilize global climate. We conclude that a broad range of intensive research and development is urgently needed to produce technological options that can allow both climate stabilization and economic development.

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Advanced Technology Paths to Global Climate Stability: Energy for a Greenhouse Planet

Greenhouse gas emissions are fundamental both to the world’s energy system and to its food production. The production of CO2, the predominant gas implicated in climate change, is intrinsic to fossil fuel combustion; specifically, thermal energy is generated by breaking the chemical bonds in the carbohydrates oil, coal, and natural gas and oxidizing the components to CO2 and H2O. One cannot have cheap energy without carbon dioxide emissions. Similarly, methane (CH4) emissions, an important greenhouse gas in its own right, are necessary to prevent the build-up of hydrogen in anaerobic digestion and decomposition. One cannot have beef, mutton, dairy, or rice without methane emissions. Climate change is the mother of all externalities: larger, more complex, and more uncertain than any other environmental problem. The sources of greenhouse gas emissions are more diffuse than any other environmental problem. Every company, every farm, every household emits some greenhouse gases. The effects are similarly pervasive. Weather affects agriculture, energy use, health, and many aspects of nature—which in turn affects everything and everyone. The causes and consequences of climate change are very diverse, and those in low-income countries who contribute least to climate change are most vulnerable to its effects. Climate change is also a long-term problem. Some greenhouse gases have an atmospheric life-time measured in tens of thousands of years. The quantities of emissions involved are enormous. In 2000, carbon dioxide emissions alone (and excluding land use change) were 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide (tCO2).

/pdf/the-economic-effects-of-climate-change-554ikwofp2.pdf

The Economic Effects of Climate Change

On average a person spends 1.1 h per day traveling and devotes a predictable fraction of income to travel. We show that these time and money budgets are stable over space and time and can be used for projecting future levels of mobility and transport mode. The fixed travel money budget requires that mobility rises nearly in proportion with income. Covering greater distances within the same fixed travel time budget requires that travelers shift to faster modes of transport. The choice of future transport modes is also constrained by path dependence because transport infrastructures change only slowly. In addition, demand for low-speed public transport is partially determined by urban population densities and land-use characteristics. We present a model that incorporates these constraints, which we use for projecting traffic volume and the share of the major motorized modes of transport—automobiles, buses, trains and high speed transport (mainly aircraft)—for 11 regions and the world through 2050. We project that by 2050 the average world citizen will travel as many kilometers as the average West European in 1990. The average American's mobility will rise by a factor of 2.6 by 2050, to 58,000 km/year. The average Indian travels 6000 km/year by 2050, comparable with West European levels in the early 1970s. Today, world citizens move 23 billion km in total; by 2050 that figure grows to 105 billion.

The future mobility of the world population

The growing pressure on urban passenger transport systems has increased the demand for new and innovative solutions to increase its efficiency. One approach to tackle this challenge has been the slow but steady shift towards shared mobility services (car-, bike-sharing etc.). Building on these new modes and the developments in information and communication technologies, the concept of “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS) has recently come to light and offers convenient door-to-door transport without the need to own a private vehicle. The term Mobility as a Service (MaaS) stands for buying mobility services based on consumer needs instead of buying the means of mobility. In recent years, various MaaS schemes have been arisen around the world. The objective of this paper is to review these newly existing mobility services and develop an index to evaluate the level of mobility integration for each based on the assumption that higher level of integration is more appealing to travellers. The review presented in this paper allows a comparison among the schemes and provides the background and the key points of MaaS systems that the research community could use for designing surveys. It also provides significant insights to transport operators and authorities on the elements they should take into account to apply an attractive MaaS scheme that could effectively shift demand away from private vehicles.

https://cyberleninka.org/article/n/1419224.pdf

A Critical Review of New Mobility Services for Urban Transport

▪ Abstract The interdependency of aircraft technological systems, the global reach of the aviation transport industry, and the uncertainty surrounding potential atmospheric effects have made defining the relationship between aviation and environmental impact an arduous task. Air travel continues to experience the fastest growth of all modes of transport, and although the energy intensity of the aviation transport system continues to decline, fuel use and total emissions have steadily risen. This trend, which represents a conflict between growth and environmental impact, has motivated the aircraft manufacturing and airline industries, the scientific community, and governmental bodies to consider what pace of emissions reduction is acceptable. This paper analyzes the historical influence of aircraft performance on cost to examine the potential pace of future efficiency improvements and emissions reduction. Technological and operational influences on aircraft energy intensity are quantified and correlated wi...

Historical and future trends in aircraft performance, cost, and emissions

This report is a description of work done at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) during the past two years to assess technologies for new passenger cars that could be developed and commercialized by the year 2020. The report does not make predictions about which technologies will be developed nor judgments about which technologies should be developed-issues for the marketplace and for public policy that are not examined here. The primary motivation for this study was the desire to assess new automobile technologies which have the potential to function with lower emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) widely believed to contribute to global warming. The GHG of most concern here is carbon dioxide (CO2), but methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) can also be important. If public policy or market forces result in constraints on GHG emissions, automobiles and other light duty vehicles-a key part of the transportation sector-will be candidates for those constraints since the transportation sector accounts for about 30% of all CO2 emissions in OECD countries, and about 20% worldwide.

On the road in 2020 - a life-cycle analysis of new automobile technologies

The major mobility variables from about 30 travel surveys in more than 10 countries are compared in this paper. The analysis of cross-sectional and longitudinal data broadly confirms some earlier findings of regularities in time and money expenditures shares for passenger travel budgets. Despite the rather rough stability, travel demand characteristics, influenced by the two travel budgets, show strong regularities across space and time for all countries examined.

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/4809/dot_4809_DS1.pdf

Andreas Schäfer

Papers

The future mobility of the world population

A Critical Review of New Mobility Services for Urban Transport

Historical and future trends in aircraft performance, cost, and emissions

On the road in 2020 - a life-cycle analysis of new automobile technologies

Regularities in travel demand: an international perspective