In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Sustainable Development Goals

Foreword 1. Prosperity Lost 2. The Age of Irresponsibility 3. Redefining Prosperity 4. The Dilemma of Growth 5. The Myth of Decoupling 6. The 'Iron Cage' of Consumerism 7. Keynesianism and the 'Green New Deal' 8. Ecological Macro-Economics 9. Flourishing - within Limits 10. Governance for Prosperity 11. The Transition to a Sustainable Economy 12. A Lasting Prosperity Appendices References Endnotes

Prosperity without growth : economics for a finite planet

The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper develops a framework of strategies to guide designers and business strategists in the move from a linear to a circular economy. Building on Stahel, the terminology of slowing, closing, and narrowing resource loops is introduced. A list of product design strategies, business model strategies, and examples for key decision-makers in businesses is introduced, to facilitate the move to a circular economy. This framework also opens up a future research agenda for the circular economy.

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Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

The carbon footprint of UK households 1990–2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input–output model

http://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/397763.pdf

Household energy consumption in the UK: A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model

Households are expected to play a pivotal role in reducing the UKs carbon emissions, and the Government is targeting specific household actions as part of its plan to meet the legally binding targets set out in the Climate Change Act 2008. However, by focusing on discrete actions, the Government fails to take account the Rebound Effect  a phenomenon whereby carbon reductions estimated by simple engineering calculations are frequently not realised in practice. For example, installation of loft insulation will most certainly increase the thermal efficiency of homes. But this will free up money that otherwise would be spent by householders on energy bills: this money may then be spent on heating houses to higher temperatures, buying extra furniture, or, say, flying on vacations. Alternatively it may be put into household savings. All of these options give rise to carbon emissions, thus the total carbon saved may be less than predicted. Indeed, in some instances, emissions may even increase  this being known as Backfire. In this paper we estimate the extent of the Rebound Effect under a range of assumptions concerning consumer purchasing decisions, with varying prices, incomes, and savings levels. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of our findings and provides guidance on the conditions under which Rebound and Backfire can be minimised.

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Angela Druckman

Papers

The carbon footprint of UK households 1990–2004: A socio-economically disaggregated, quasi-multi-regional input–output model

Household energy consumption in the UK: A highly geographically and socio-economically disaggregated model

Missing carbon reductions?: exploring rebound and backfire effects in uk households

Missing carbon reductions? Exploring rebound and backfire effects in UK households

Turning lights into flights: Estimating direct and indirect rebound effects for UK households