Showing papers by "Anthony Patt published in 2013"

WACC the Dog: The Effect of Financing Costs on the Levelized Cost of Solar PV Power

Abstract: The photo-voltaic (PV) power industry has grown rapidly in recent years, and associated with that growth has been a decline in costs. There are indications that PV has already reached cost-parity with power off the grid in some markets and projections that it will attain such grid parity in many more markets over the coming decade. Analysts have suggested that the growth in PV has come at an unnecessarily high price, with unnecessarily high subsidies. However, the factors influencing the cost of PV, and the subsidies required to sustain its construction, include more than just the strength of the sun. While differences in costs of such factors as initial capital spending, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning are hard to ascertain, it is possible to account for the cost of capital, on a country-by-country basis. In this paper, we therefore map the cost of solar PV globally, accounting for both the quality of the solar resource and the cost of capital in order to differentiate levelized costs of electricity (LCOE) from PV. Our results suggest that northern countries may not be an unwise location to subsidize PV construction, and further suggest that efforts to expand PV installation in developing countries may benefit greatly from policies designed to make low cost finance more widely available.

Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability

Abstract: In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies. (authors' abstract)

Adaptive capacity contributing to improved agricultural productivity at the household level: Empirical findings highlighting the importance of crop insurance

Abstract: Understanding the factors that give rise to greater or lesser adaptive capacity among households with in a community could allow government interventions to target the right groups of people. In this paper we study such factors, making use of a household survey administered in the Indian state of Odisha. In the survey, we queried respondents for the adaptations that they had engaged in to deal with the risk of drought, as well as a number of indicators for adaptive capacity taken from the literature. We found a large number of indicators of adaptive capacity to correlate with one or more adaptations taken. However, many of these indicators, while increasing the likelihood that one adaptation would be taken, also decreased the likelihood that another would be taken, and hence were not unambiguous determinants of greater adaptive capacity in general. One indicator, access to crop insurance, stood out as particularly effective: it correlated with an increased likelihood of engaging in two separate yield-raising adaptations, and correlated with a decreased likelihood of engaging in two additional adaptations that would have the effect of reducing yields. The results suggest that further attention to crop insurance may be warranted, as well as further research to determine if the other indicators may be effective in other contextual settings.

Knowledge and information needs of adaptation policy-makers: a European study

Abstract: Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

Abstract: This paper reviews the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight—thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP)—and identify critical climate vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in mean conditions and extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any of the technologies mentioned, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat-resilient and for improving the design of cooling systems for CSP.

Perception of landslides risk and responsibility: a case study in eastern Styria, Austria

Abstract: This paper presents a case study about the perception of landslide risk. Following a major set of landslides in the eastern part of Austria in June 2009, we surveyed local experts, residents who had suffered losses from the landslides, and others living in the affected communities. Overall, the risk perception was significantly higher among those who had been personally affected by a landslide, had knowledge of the geology in the study region, had been affected by another natural hazard, or spent a lot of time outdoors and in touch with nature. Non-experts viewed natural factors as the main causes for the occurrence of landslides, while experts viewed anthropogenic factors as more important. Likewise, non-experts placed a greater emphasis on hard measures (such as retaining walls) to reduce the risk, whereas the experts tended to focus on better information and land-use planning. In terms of responsibility for mitigative actions, a majority of inhabitants believed that public authorities should undertake most of the costs, whereby those who had personal experience with landslides were more likely to favor the government paying for it.

Reducing vulnerability to hydro-meteorological extremes in Africa. A qualitative assessment of national climate disaster management policies: Accounting for heterogeneity ☆

Abstract: In Africa, hydro-meteorological disasters (HMDs) have hit with increasing frequency and magnitude in recent years, with detrimental impacts on local livelihoods. African countries display a patchwork of national policies and institutional frameworks to address these rising HMDs. This paper examines the heterogeneity that exists within Africa′s institutional arrangements for climate-related disaster risk management, and introduces a three-partite policy classification that ranks each country as one of three disaster management policy types: the ‘Unprepared Firefighters′ (whose response to disasters is late, delayed and ineffective), the ‘Prepared Firefighters′ (for the most part effective disaster responders) and the ‘Disaster Averters′ (who experienced a paradigm shift and moved focus away from the hazard itself towards a reduction of the underlying risk factors that cause disasters). Through extensive data mining, interviews and qualitative country assessments, we map where African countries lie on this spectrum of effective climate-related disaster risk management. We find that African countries lay at different levels on the spectrum of effective disaster risk management. Across Africa, countries display differential progress in achieving the Hyogo Framework for Action goals and great variation and heterogeneity exists from country to country, one that calls for a concomitant heterogeneity in aid programs and initiatives meant to support comprehensive disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (DRR–CCA) in Africa. In closing, this paper suggests ways to support African countries′ efforts towards effective disaster risk management and planning. It offers a qualitative method to continually assess developing countries′ progress in achieving the Hyogo Framework for Action goals, one that straddles top-down country self-reporting and bottom-up civil society assessment.

Education as a Determinant of Response to Cyclone Warnings: Evidence from Coastal Zones in India

Abstract: Education is often considered a means for enhancing adaptive capacity, based on the consideration that formal education is likely to improve the ability of individuals to evaluate risks and respond to warning information. We explore the relation between the level and nature of education and enhanced ability to respond to tropical cyclone risk. We make a distinction between formal school-based education and nonformal education in the form of traditional knowledge of environmental precursors and conditions that may be associated with tropical cyclone occurrence. We evaluate two possible routes through which education could lead to enhanced ability to respond to tropical cyclone risk; first, education, both formal and nonformal, may lead to a better ability to access, understand, and interpret warning information and hence lead to an appropriate response to the warning; and second, formal education may be associated with greater income levels and socioeconomic status and thus with greater resources for evacuating in response to cyclone warning. We find that the hypotheses regarding the link between formal education and adaptive capacity are actually not well supported by empirical data. On the other hand nonformal education in the form of traditional knowledge of predicting cyclones based on environmental precursors emerged as a significant determinant of the ability to understand and interpret warning information and provides a strong case for preserving and promoting a hazard-specific traditional knowledge base along with formal education.

A statistical analysis of the link between energy and the Millennium Development Goals

Abstract: Energy is closely linked with key contemporary global challenges the world faces, including poverty alleviation and climate change. The provision of energy services is often assumed to be a prerequisite to economic and social development. Although not an explicit goal, energy is crucial to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). While intuitive, such a relationship is difficult to quantitatively ascertain and thus has not been analytically explored in detail in the scientific literature. The correlation between access to energy services and development is, however, often addressed in aggregate, for example by using composite indexes such as the Human Development Index, or by focusing strictly on economic impacts. This paper presents a statistical articulation of the link between energy and various proxies of development, using the MDGs as a framework. The analysis confirms the potentially positive influence of access to energy services on development. It provides a perspective on a num...

Should adaptation be a distinct field of science

Abstract: Over the past few months, I have had the pleasure of editing the Viewpoint article appearing in this issue, ‘Climate adaptation research for the next generation’ (Mustelin et al., 2013). The authors of that paper argue that climate adaptation has become so expansive and so important, that young scientists entering the field need particular support in particular ways, in order to do their job well. Most of all, they argue, we need to improve training and support for multiand trans-disciplinary research. As a part of this, we need to harmonize the language and terminology used across the various fields that contribute to adaptation, and we need a better way of collecting and disseminating information on best practices. The authors’ concluding words, to me, ring true: ‘Adaptation science challenges our conventional disciplinary approaches and in order to enable a new generation of adaptation scientists to advance their contributions to solving tomorrow’s problems, we need to focus on expanding the support they need’. But this sentence also got me thinking. What if the practice of adaptation can best advance not if there is a growing group of researchers concentrating on it as a unique field of study, but rather if the practice benefits from the contributions of a wider set of researchers, most of whom are primarily concerned with other areas of nature and the human experience, but who every so often bring their expertise to bear on the subject of how changes in the climate and in human systems can go hand in hand? In short, what if adaptation isn’t really a very good science of its own? I suppose that this is a radical thought, particularly coming from an Associate Editor of this journal. To frame why I increasingly believe it, however, I would like to describe an idea that came to me as I was preparing for a presentation to a group of PhD students, several months ago. The talk was on how to communicate uncertainty about future climate, in order to aid adaptation decision-making. I had given similar talks before, always suggesting the importance of participatory communication practices between climate modellers and stakeholders. My epiphany this time, however, was that about 99% of the time it is completely unnecessary to do a good job communicating uncertainty in future climate – beyond simply stating that it is highly uncertain – because about 99% of the time, people’s adaptation decisions simply aren’t at all sensitive to what future climate will bring. It is an argument similar to what Suraje Dessai and his co-authors have developed in a number of papers (Dessai & Hulme, 2004, 2007; Dessai, Hulme, Lempert, & Pielke, 2009). Building higher dikes in places where dikes are already present, like the Netherlands, represents the other 1%, which rather than being a good paradigm for how adaptation operates and why it is needed, is actually a highly distracting red herring. Alright, that last sentence was even more radical. However, the fact is that there are three basic types of activity that we typically use the word ‘adaptation’ to describe. The first of these is preparing for a particular future climate that is different from the climate we have now. The second is reducing people’s vulnerability to whatever climate they get, primarily by improving their adaptive capacity. The third is correcting existing maladaptations, ways in which people don’t do as good a job as they could at managing existing climate risks, or matching their lives to the existing weather. While we use words to suggest that it is the first of these – anticipatory action based on a predicted future climate – that captures the real heart and soul of adaptation, in all my years of doing research I have seen examples of it exceedingly infrequently, the Dutch dikes being the best example. Everywhere else, uncertainties about socio-economic development, as well as changes in human values, make it impossible to estimate preparatory adaptation’s future benefits. With no estimate of future benefits, it is really hard to justify taking actions to make people in the present worse off, which is what adapting to a climate that exists only in the future implies. Hence, the adaptations that we do in fact see, for good reason, are those of the second and third varieties: implementing innovations that correct existing maladaptation, and improving people’s adaptive (or one could also say ‘innovative’) capacity. That is fine. Both of these are extremely worthy goals. But then, research to improve the practice of adaptation is really very much about innovation, and very little about climate change. It is about testing whether innovations are practical and valuable, about understanding what makes people more likely to innovate in the first place, and what they need in order to put their innovations into practice. Moreover, it is this theme of innovation that connects climate adaptation to every single social science, systems science, and engineering discipline out there. In all of these disciplines, there are things to be learned about innovation – about coming up with, evaluating, and implementing new ideas – from the whole range of human experience, from playing chess, to building schools, to making dinner, to driving cars.

Social and institutional barriers to effective multi-hazard and multi-risk decision making and governance

Abstract: Policies and decisions for mitigating and adapting to hazards are not taken in a hypothetical world populated by rational actors free of institutional incentives, but rather in an institutional context marked by divisions of responsibility, poor communication pathways, and at times conflicting objectives. Indeed these factors could create a particular burden on the use of multiple-hazards assessment, since it may requre the cooperation of multiple agencies. This task will focus analysis on one or two of the real-world test cases, in order to appraise the institutional landscape for mitigation and adaptation, find the barriers, and suggest solutions. It will rely on a desk analysis of legal and regulatory documents, leading into stakeholder interviews and surveys. This will require multiple visits to up to two of the case study sites, in order to meet with key policy-makers and decision-makers. A final workshop held in each site will serve first to validate the findings from the desk study and stakeholder interviews, and second to identify robust pathways for modifying the institutional landscape to overcome the current barriers.

Deep Emissions Reductions and Mainstreaming of Mitigation and Adaptation: Key Findings

Abstract: Climate policy "mainstreaming", "proofing" and "integration" are concepts that are increasingly appearing in a range of EU policy discussions, including those concerning the 2014-2020 Multi-Annual Financial Framework (MFF). They reflect the view that all policy sectors need to play a part in both reducing emissions and increasing resilience to unavoidable climate impacts. Broadly defined, mainstreaming involves including climate considerations in policy processes, improving the consistency among policy objectives, and where necessary, giving priority to climate-related goals above others. Although often couched in technical language, profound political challenges, at multiple levels of governance, lie at the heart of the mainstreaming agenda. The RESPONSES project analysed how far adaptation and mitigation was being mainstreamed in EU policies, and assessed the potential opportunities and limits for the future.

Individual perceptual and cognitive barriers to multi-hazard management

Abstract: There is a large empirically-based literature within behavioural economics and environmental psychology identifying critical challenges that individuals acting in both lay and professional capacties-have with evaluating and prioritizing actions across multiple types of risk. Such difficulties at the cogntive level likely affect both citizen and institutional responses. In the case of citizens, these difficulties can affect whether they respond appropriately to early warnings, and other calls for individual risk mitigation actions. In the case of professionals, the difficulties can influence whether they will choose to apply formal decision- analytic methods. The first part of this task will be to map findings from these literature onto the challenge of multi-hazard decision-making. The second will then be to design and conduct an economic experiment to be conducted in the decision-making laboratory, to quantify and validate these findings.

Research, part of a Special Feature on Education and Differential Vulnerability to Natural Disasters Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability

Abstract: In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies.