Showing papers in "Regional Environmental Change in 2013"
TL;DR: The most frequently reported barriers relate to the institutional and social dimensions of adaptation as mentioned in this paper, where barriers are identified as configurations of climate and non-climate factors and conditions that emerge from the actor, the governance system, or the system of concern.
Abstract: Considerable barriers can emerge in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. Understanding the nature of barriers to adaptation is important so as to find strategic ways of dealing with them. However, our current understanding is limited and highly fragmented across the academic community. This paper aims to bring some conceptual convergence in these debates by applying a systematic review method to assess the current state of knowledge on barriers to adaptation in the peer-reviewed literature. The review results show that: (1) Barriers to adaptation have hardly been defined in the literature and no clear indicators exist so as to identify and assess them systematically. (2) An impressive number of barriers have been reported, but the list of possible barriers is seemingly endless. (3) The most frequently reported barriers relate to the institutional and social dimensions of adaptation. (4) Barriers are identified as configurations of climate and non-climate factors and conditions that emerge from the actor, the governance system, or the system of concern. (5) Barriers are mainly studied in developed countries with a strong focus on water-related domains. (6) The majority of studies on barriers use small-n inductive case approaches while comparative studies across different contexts are limited. (7) Although interventions to overcome barriers are recommended by most studies, empirical studies on interventions are scarce. We present further conceptual clarification and a more precise definition of barriers to adaptation. We conclude that future research should go beyond asking the questions ‘if’ and ‘which’ barriers to adaptation exist and begin asking ‘how’ and ‘why’ barriers emerge.
488 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors introduce a conceptual model for mainstreaming climate adaptation to enhance our understanding of the concept as well as the barriers and opportunities that influence these integration processes and explore strategies for overcoming barriers and creating opportunities.
Abstract: With cities facing climate change, climate adaptation is necessary to reduce risks such as heat stress and flooding and maintain the goals of sustainable urban development. In climate change literature, the focus has been on developing a new dedicated policy domain for climate adaptation. Yet, empirical evidence shows that in practice actors are searching for solutions that not only serve climate adaptation, but integrate the adaptation objective in existing policy domains (e.g., urban planning, water management, public health). The integration of adaptation in other policy domains, also called “mainstreaming climate adaptation,” can stimulate the effectiveness of policy making through combining objectives, increase efficient use of human and financial resources and ensure long-term sustainable investments. A better understanding of the process of mainstreaming is, however, lacking. The article introduces a conceptual model for mainstreaming climate adaptation to enhance our understanding of the concept as well as the barriers and opportunities that influence these integration processes and to explore strategies for overcoming barriers and creating opportunities. Two Dutch case studies—related to urban planning—are used to illustrate the value of the model. The cases demonstrate the dynamic process of mainstreaming and raise discussion of the appropriate criteria for evaluating mainstreaming in relation to the aims of climate adaptation. The paper concludes with an exploration of specific strategies to facilitate the mainstreaming of adaptation in existing and new policy domains.
184 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change and found that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt.
Abstract: The savanna region of Africa is a potential breadbasket of the continent but is severely affected by climate change. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the types of adjustments they have made in their farming practices in response to these changes will offer some insights into necessary interventions to ensure a successful adaptation in the region. This paper explores how smallholder farmers in the Nigerian savanna perceive and adapt to climate change. It is based on a field survey carried out among 200 smallholder farm households selected from two agro-ecological zones. The results show that most of the farmers have noticed changes in climate and have consequently adjusted their farming practices to adapt. There are no large differences in the adaptation practices across the region, but farmers in Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone are more likely to adapt to changes in temperature than those in northern Guinea savanna. The main adaptation methods include varying planting dates, use of drought tolerant and early maturing varieties and tree planting. Some of the farmers are facing limitations in adapting because of lack of information on climate change and the suitable adaptation measures and lack of credit. The study then concludes that to ensure successful adaptation to climate change in the region, concerted efforts are needed to design and promote planned adaptation measures that fit into the local context and also to educate farmers on climate change and appropriate adaptation measures.
161 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the differentiated knowledge, experiences and perceptions of small traditional farmers and modern commercial farmers and their adaptation influences using qualitative interviews and found that commercial farmers had a better understanding of the science of climate change, but small farmers presented a localised explanation of observed climate changes.
Abstract: Effective adaptation to climate change and variability is contingent on the perceptions of farmers and the ability of policy makers to merge these with scientific knowledge systems. The study examined the differentiated knowledge, experiences and perceptions of small traditional farmers and modern commercial farmers and their adaptation influences using qualitative interviews. Farmers generally have very clear ideas of the trends in the parameters of climate change as they relate to farm productivity and other livelihoods. Commercial farmers had a better understanding of the science of climate change, but small farmers presented a localised explanation of observed climate changes. Non-climate factors influenced adaptation of both groups of farmers. The capacities of small farmers are lower than their commercial counterparts, but the risks associated with commercial farming are much higher owing to higher investments in uncertain physical and economic conditions. Differentiated policies are needed at climate proofing the investments and efforts of farmers.
151 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed the factors influencing the adoption of various adaptation practices by a highly marginalized indigenous community in the remote rural Mid-Hills of Nepal, based on a household survey conducted among 221 Chepang households selected randomly.
Abstract: This study analyzes the factors influencing the adoption of various adaptation practices by a highly marginalized indigenous community in the remote rural Mid-Hills of Nepal. The analysis is based on a household survey conducted among 221 Chepang households selected randomly. A multivariate probit model was used to analyze five categories of adaptation choices against a set of socio-economic, institutional, infrastructural, and perception variables. Perception of rainfall changes, size of landholding, status of land tenure, distance to motor road, access to productive credit, information, extension services, and skill development trainings are all influential to enable households to deviate away from traditional coping strategies and adopt suitable practices to adapt to climate vagaries. Policies and development activities should be geared to address these determinants in order to facilitate adaptation.
129 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the authors address the question of what motivates coastal dwellers to adapt proactively to rising sea-levels and associated flood events and find that personal experience is the main explanatory factor for adaptation behavior while cognitive variables and personal history are also important.
Abstract: Individuals are able to contribute in reducing vulnerability to climate change and extreme events. This study addresses the question of what motivates coastal dwellers to adapt proactively to rising sea-levels and associated flood events. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey that was carried out in Germany and Denmark. Two elements based on variables of the Protection Motivation Theory were constructed, which depict the perceptions of flood risk and household-level adaptation. In addition, individual and residence-related characteristics were included. First, descriptive statistical analysis on adaptation behaviour and the two elements was conducted. Then, multiple regression analysis was applied to determine which variables influence the total number of implemented adaptation measures. Finally, the implementation of single adaptation measures was investigated using binary logistic regression analysis. Results indicate that personal experience is the main explanatory factor for adaptation behaviour while cognitive variables and personal history are also important. The independent variables that we used can, to a large extent, predict the implementation of measures that require small investments in terms of efforts and costs. However, the implementation of high-investment measures cannot be explained based on these variables. Our findings suggest that risk communication in coastal management should also integrate variables related to adaptation behaviour, and further research is needed to better understand the implementation of high-investment adaptation measures.
115 citations
TL;DR: The CLIMSAVE platform as mentioned in this paper is a participatory integrated assessment (IA) tool that combines knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder 'lay insight' and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of 'what if's' to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change.
Abstract: Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.
115 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots.
Abstract: Climate change is expected to cause shifts in species distributions worldwide, threatening their viability due to range reductions and altering their representation in protected areas. Biodiversity hotspots might be particularly vulnerable to climate change because they hold large numbers of species with small ranges which could contract even further as species track their optimal habitat. In this study, we assessed the extent to which climate change could cause distribution shifts in threatened and range-restricted birds in Colombia, a megadiverse region that includes the Tropical Andes and Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena hotspots. To evaluate how climate change might influence species in this region, we developed species distribution models using MAXENT. Species are projected to lose on average between 33 and 43 % of their total range under future climate, and up to 18 species may lose their climatically suitable range completely. Species whose suitable climate is projected to disappear occur in mountainous regions, particularly isolated ranges such as the Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta. Depending on the representation target considered, between 46 and 96 % of the species evaluated may be adequately represented in protected areas. In the future, the fraction of species potentially adequately represented is projected to decline to 30–95 %. Additional protected areas may help to retain representativeness of protected areas, but monitoring of species projected to have the largest potential declines in range size will be necessary to assess the need of implementing active management strategies to counteract the effects of climate change.
113 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a stochastic method was used to evaluate the expected changes in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events from the current climate to the projected future climate.
Abstract: Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases are projected to cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water management infrastructures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary. This study was undertaken to assess expected changes in IDF curves from the current climate to the projected future climate. To provide future IDF curves, 3-hourly precipitation data simulated by six combinations of global and regional climate models were temporally downscaled using a stochastic method. Performance of the downscaling method was evaluated, and IDF curves were developed for the state of Alabama. The results of all six climate models suggest that the future precipitation patterns for Alabama are expected to veer toward less intense rainfalls for short duration events. However, for long duration events (i.e., >4 h), the results are not consistent across the models. Given a large uncertainty existed on projected rainfall intensity of these six climate models, developing an ensemble model as a result of incorporating all six climate models, performing an uncertainty analysis, and creating a probability based IDF curves could be proper solutions to diminish this uncertainty.
113 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings, for the area around the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands.
Abstract: Empirical evidence of increasing flood damages and the prospect of climatic change has initiated discussions in the flood management community on how to effectively manage flood risks. In the Netherlands, the framework of multi-layer safety (MLS) has been introduced to support this risk-based approach. The MLS framework consists of three layers: (i) prevention, (ii) spatial planning and (iii) evacuation. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate measures in the second layer, such as wet proofing, dry proofing or elevating buildings. The methodology uses detailed land-use data for the area around the city of Rotterdam (up to building level) that has recently become available. The vulnerability of these detailed land-use classes to flooding is assessed using the stage–damage curves from different international models. The methodology is demonstrated using a case study in the unembanked area of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, as measures from the second layer may be particularly effective there. The results show that the flood risk in the region is considerable: EUR 36 million p.a. A large part (almost 60 %) of this risk results from industrial land use, emphasising the need to give this category more attention in flood risk assessments. It was found that building level measures could substantially reduce flood risks in the region because of the relatively low inundation levels of buildings. Risk to residential buildings would be reduced by 40 % if all buildings would be wet-proofed, by 89 % if all buildings would be dry-proofed and elevating buildings over 100 cm would render the risk almost zero. While climate change could double the risk in 2100, such building level measures could easily nullify this effect. Despite the high potential of such measures, actual implementation is still limited. This is partly caused by the lack of knowledge regarding these measures by most Dutch companies and the legal impossibility for municipalities to enforce most of these measures as they would go beyond the building codes established at the national level.
107 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors propose a three-dimensional policy field consisting of substantive authority, institutional order, and substantive expertise, and apply this definition to adaptation policy activity in England and determine whether adaptation can be considered a policy field there.
Abstract: Attention toward climate adaptation has been growing among governments over the past decade. In the European Union (EU) alone, nine countries have national plans for adaptation (with more in preparation), there are some 30 sub-national plans, and every Member State has policies to address adaptation. Given the recent attention given toward this subject a question that arises is: can climate change adaptation be considered a policy field? As a unit of analysis, policy fields are widely studied in the social sciences. However, the definition of policy fields such as environmental policy or agricultural policy is taken for granted. Oddly for such a common concept, very little attention is paid to what policy fields are in and of themselves or how they can be identified. Given these shortcomings, this article first attempts to fill this gap by theoretically defining what a policy field is by identifying and assigning their characteristics and dynamics. Based upon a literature review, it shows that policy fields are three-dimensional entities comprised of substantive authority, institutional order, and substantive expertise. The second task of this article is to apply this definition to adaptation policy activity in England and determine whether adaptation can be considered a policy field there.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope, and significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions.
Abstract: Global tropical deforestation continues to occur at high rates despite political attention. National-level forest baselines are being established all over the world to guide the implementation of several policy mechanisms. However, identifying the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and understanding the complexity of their interlinkages are often difficult. We first analyzed deforestation between 1990 and 2005 at the national level and found an annual deforestation rate of 0.62 %. Next, we performed separate analyses for four natural regions in Colombia and found annual deforestation rates between 0.42 and 1.92 %. Using general linear models, we identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope. Significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions. In the Caribbean region, drivers of loss are urban population, unsatisfied basic needs, slope, and precipitation and four land use variables (illicit crops, pastures, cattle, and fires). In the Orinoco region, crops are the main driver of forest loss, and in the Amazonian region, deforestation is primarily due to fires related to the colonization front. Policy mechanisms will have to take into account regional patterns to successfully balance development and forest preservation in Colombia.
TL;DR: In this paper, a choice experiment was used to measure farmers' minimum willingness to accept (WTA) requirements to adjust agricultural land management practices in Nidderdale and the Washburn valley (Yorkshire, UK) under a potential local payment for ecosystem services (PES) programme.
Abstract: Maintaining drinking water quality is essential to water companies and their customers, and agricultural non-point source pollution is a major cause of water quality degradation. In this paper, we examine the potential use of payments financed by a water company as incentives for farmers to adjust their agricultural land management practices in order to protect water quality. We use a choice experiment (CE) to measure farmers’ minimum willingness to accept (WTA) requirements to adjust agricultural land management practices in Nidderdale and the Washburn valley (Yorkshire, UK) under a potential local payment for ecosystem services (PES) programme. Latent class analysis of farmers’ CE responses was used to quantify the size and spread of farmers’ preferences and minimum WTA values for compensation payments, and to investigate potential drivers of preference variation. Analysis suggested that the emphasis on sheep or cattle/dairy production within mixed farming businesses in this area provides a partial explanation for the considerable observed heterogeneity in preferences and minimum WTA requirements for participation in a potential PES programme.
TL;DR: In this paper, the case of conservation agriculture farmers in a Kenyan region and examines how their practices contribute to buffer capacity, a characteristic feature of resilience, can be conceptualized and used for assessing the resilience of smallholder agriculture to climate change.
Abstract: Building resilience to climate change in agricultural production can ensure the functioning of agricultural-based livelihoods and reduce their vulnerability to climate change impacts. This paper thus explores how buffer capacity, a characteristic feature of resilience, can be conceptualised and used for assessing the resilience of smallholder agriculture to climate change. It uses the case of conservation agriculture farmers in a Kenyan region and examines how their practices contribute to buffer capacity. Surveys were used to collect data from 41 purposely selected conservation agriculture farmers in the Laikipia region of Kenya. Besides descriptive statistics, factor analysis was used to identify the key dimensions that characterise buffer capacity in the study context. The cluster of practices characterising buffer capacity in conservation agriculture include soil protection, adapted crops, intensification/irrigation, mechanisation and livelihood diversification. Various conservation practices increase buffer capacity, evaluated by farmers in economic, social, ecological and other dimensions. Through conservation agriculture, most farmers improved their productivity and incomes despite drought, improved their environment and social relations. Better-off farmers also reduced their need for labour, but this resulted in lesser income-earning opportunities for the poorer farmers, thus reducing the buffer capacity and resilience of the latter.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a baseline understanding of vulnerability to climate-related hydrological changes in the mountainous Khumbu region of eastern Nepal using a vulnerability approach, 80 interviews combining fixed and open-ended questions were conducted in four communities representing the geographic and livelihood variability of the region.
Abstract: Inhabitants of mountainous regions in least developed countries are recognized to be among the most vulnerable to climate change globally. Despite this, human dimensions work is in its infancy in mountain regions where we have limited understanding of who is vulnerable (or adaptable), to what stresses, and why. This study develops a baseline understanding of vulnerability to climate-related hydrological changes in the mountainous Khumbu region of eastern Nepal. Using a vulnerability approach, 80 interviews combining fixed and open-ended questions were conducted in four communities representing the geographic and livelihood variability of the region. The study identifies four region-wide vulnerabilities currently affecting residents: reduced water access for household uses, declining crop yields, reduced water access for meeting the high water demands of tourists, and reduced hydro-electricity generation. These vulnerabilities are widespread among the population but arrange spatially as a function of varying exposure-sensitivity to hydrological change, livelihood opportunities, and access to foreign financial assistance. Our findings indicate that precipitation change (not glacial change) is the greatest biophysical driver of vulnerability.
TL;DR: The authors explored the vulnerability of livestock and forest-based livelihoods to climate variability and change in Lake Faguibine, northern Mali, where drastic ecological, political and social changes have occurred.
Abstract: Vulnerability assessment is increasingly recognised as a starting point to identify climate adaptation needs and improve adaptive capacity. However, vulnerability assessments are challenging because of the complexity of multifaceted biophysical, human and institutional factors, interacting at different scales and levels within socio-ecological systems. Using a participatory approach across levels and genders, this paper explores the vulnerability of livestock- and forest-based livelihoods to climate variability and change in Lake Faguibine, northern Mali, where drastic ecological, political and social changes have occurred. Our results show that the distribution of vulnerabilities within livelihoods and groups shifted when the ecosystem evolved from a lake to a forest. New vulnerability drivers have emerged, related to resources availability, access and power relations. In addition, political interests and psychological barriers hinder the local transition to an equitable and sustainable use of forest ecosystem services. Divergent perceptions, social identities, interests and power explained why different actors—governmental and non-governmental, men and women, local, sub-national and national—differed in their vulnerability assessments. This is exemplified in the way actors at different levels and of different gender analysed the effects of herders’ mobility and in the way women analysed men’s migration. This case study confirms the need for participatory and gender-sensitive vulnerability assessments across different scales and levels that consider the interaction between socio-ecological systems and the dynamics and distribution of vulnerability across different social sub-systems.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors report on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors.
Abstract: How effective are multi-stakeholder scenarios- building processes to bring diverse actors together and create a policy-making tool to support sustainable development and promote food security in the developing world under climate change? The effectiveness of a participatory scenario development process highlights the importance of ''bound- ary work'' that links actors and organizations involved in generating knowledge on the one hand, and practitioners and policymakers who take actions based on that knowledge on the other. This study reports on the application of criteria for effective boundary work to a multi-stakeholder scenarios process in East Africa that brought together a range of regional agriculture and food systems actors. This analysis has enabled us to evaluate the extent to which these scenarios were seen by the different actors as credible, legitimate and salient, and thus more likely to be useful. The analysis has shown gaps and opportunities for improvement on these criteria, such as the quantification of scenarios, attention to translating and communicating the results through various channels and new approaches to enable a more inclusive and diverse group of participants. We conclude that applying boundary work criteria to multi-stakeholder scenarios pro- cesses can do much to increase the likelihood of developing sustainable development and food security policies that are more appropriate.
TL;DR: The Southeast Climate Consortium and the Florida Climate Institute formed a climate learning network consisting of row crop farmers, agricultural extension specialists, researchers, and climate scientists working in the Southeast US.
Abstract: Within the context of a changing climate, scientists are called to engage directly with agricultural stakeholders for the coproduction of relevant information that will support decision making and adaptation. However, values, beliefs, identities, goals, and social networks shape perceptions and actions about climate change. Engagement processes that ignore the socio-cultural context within which stakeholders are embedded may fail to guide adaptive responses. To facilitate dialog around these issues, the Southeast Climate Consortium and the Florida Climate Institute formed a climate learning network consisting of row crop farmers, agricultural extension specialists, researchers, and climate scientists working in the Southeast US. Regional in scope, the learning network engages researchers and practitioners from Alabama, Georgia, and Florida as partners in adaptation science. This paper describes the ongoing interactions, dialog, and experiential learning among the network’s diverse participants. We illustrate how participatory tools have been used in a series of workshops to create interactive spaces for knowledge coproduction. For example, historical timelines, climate scenarios, and technology exchanges stimulated discussions about climate-related risk management. We present findings from the workshops related to participants’ perspectives on climate change and adaptation. Finally, we discuss lessons learned that may be applicable to other groups involved in climate education, communication, and stakeholder engagement. We suggest that the thoughtful design of stakeholder engagement processes can become a powerful social tool for improving decision support and strengthening adaptive capacity within rural communities.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries and conclude that a well-developed science-policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.
Abstract: Across Europe, national governments have started to strategically plan adaptation to climate change. Making adaptation decisions is difficult in the light of uncertainties and the complexity of adaptation problems. Already large amounts of research results on climate impacts and adaptive measures are available, and more are produced and need to be mediated across the boundary between science and policy. Both researchers and policy-makers have started to intensify efforts to coproduce knowledge that is valuable to both communities, particularly in the context of climate change adaptation. In this paper, we present results from a study of adaptation governance and information needs, comparing eight European countries. We identify sources and means for the retrieval of information as well as gaps and problems with the knowledge provided by scientists and analyzed whether these appear to be contingent on the point in the policy-making cycle where countries are. We find that in this early phase of adaptation planning, the quality of the definition of needs, the way uncertainty is dealt with, and the quality of science–policy interaction are indeed contingent on the stage of adaptation planning, while information needs and sources are not. We conclude that a well-developed science–policy interface is of key importance for effective decision-making for adaptation.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors explored the relationship among grape production, wine quality, rainfall and temperature for one of the main areas protected under the denomination of origin Rias Baixas, in Galicia, Spain, for the period 1987-2005.
Abstract: Climate exerts an important role on grape production and wine quality. For one of the main areas protected under the denomination of origin Rias Baixas, in Galicia, Spain, we explore the relationships among grape production, wine quality, rainfall and temperature for the period 1987–2005. The influence of climatic variability was analysed in terms of the relationship between the productivity of the grapevines and the main meteorological teleconnection patterns affecting the North Atlantic region. We also investigate the daily variation in atmospheric circulation through the study of the influence of weather types derived using an automated daily classification. We consider three bioclimatic indices for viticultural zoning, Winkler and Huglin, and the hydrothermic index of Branas, Bernon and Levadoux. While significant trends were identified in the Winkler and Huglin indices, there were no significant trends in the Branas, Bernon and Levadoux index, for the period 1958–2005. For the coming decades, using the scenario A1B evaluated by the regional climate models used in the ENSEMBLES project, the positive trends of Winkler and Huglin indices continue, while Branas, Bernon and Levadoux implies a negative trend. In all cases, these trends induce significant changes in the viticulture of the region.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture, and analyzed past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs using a statistical model.
Abstract: This study investigates future impacts of global warming on climate and extreme climate events in Nigeria, the most populous African country that depends on rain-fed agriculture. Past and future climate simulations from 9 GCMs were downscaled (using a statistical model) and analyzed for the study. The study considers the impacts of two emission scenarios (B1 and A2) on the future climates (2046–2065 and 2081–2100) over ecological zones in Nigeria. The model evaluation shows that the downscaling adds values to the GCMs simulation, and the results capture all the important climatic features over the country. The model projections show that both B1 and A2 scenarios change the future climate over Nigeria. They significantly increase the temperature over all the ecological zones, with greatest warming (between 1 and 4 °C) over the Sudan (short grass) Savanna in March. The warming, which increases the occurrence of extreme temperature and heat wave events over the entire country, enhances the frequency of the extreme rainfall events in the south and southeast and reduces the annual rainfall over the northeast. Since heavy rains and floods are major problems in the south and southeast, and drought is major problem in the northeast, the global warming may further aggravate these environmental problems in future. These could have negative impacts on agriculture and further threaten livelihood and food security in the rapidly growing country. Hence, there is need for further studies on adaptation and mitigation strategies to address the impacts of global warming in Nigeria.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors explored the challenges of applying effective adaptation responses to projected climate change in vulnerable coastal systems on the South Coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia.
Abstract: Australian coastal areas have been identified as highly vulnerable to climate change, with major projected impacts including sea level rise, extreme weather events, increased erosion, and a change in coastal processes and wave patterns. Such impacts would cause coastal settlements and ecosystems to face increasingly uncertain conditions. In response to increased risk, effective coastal management at local and regional scales is needed, with governing bodies providing significant leadership. This research explores the challenges of applying effective adaptation responses to projected climate change in vulnerable coastal systems on the South Coast of the Fleurieu Peninsula, South Australia. In particular, the option of planned retreat as a management response to coastal risk is critically examined, with the incorporation of learning from Byron Bay, NSW. A mixed methods approach was undertaken by integrating documentary interrogation with the analysis of interview responses from key coastal managers. It was determined that despite the increase in adaptation planning and development of management strategy options to manage sea level rise on the Fleurieu Peninsula, there is a lack of implementation of adaptation responses. In addition, planning seems to focus largely on the implications of sea level rise on infrastructure, often overlooking other risks and possible ecological impacts. Inconsistencies in governance are reflected at all levels, indicating a need for comprehensive improvements to ensure the incorporation of appropriate risk responses into planning decisions.
TL;DR: In this paper, a household-level vulnerability index based on survey data was derived, and only 9 out of 26 indicators tested exhibit a statistically significant relationship with households' vulnerability, confirming the need for more research on underlying determinants and processes of vulnerability.
Abstract: Recent studies have projected significant climate change impacts in Africa. In order to understand what this means in terms of human well-being at local level, we need to understand how households can cope and adapt. This need has led many authors to argue for approaches to adaptation that are based on vulnerability analysis. Vulnerability is one of the key terms in the climate change literature, but little progress has been made in the field of its quantification. Typically, indicators are combined according to a weighing scheme, with the identification of indicators and the weighing schemes based on expert judgment rather than empirical evidence. In addition, most quantitative assessments are applied to countries or other administrative units, whereas managing climate risk has traditionally been the responsibility of households. We therefore focus on the adaptive capacity of households. We analyze the coping strategies and vulnerability to climatic stresses of agro-pastoralists in Mozambique and test the validity of a number of commonly used vulnerability indicators. We derive a household-level vulnerability index based on survey data. We find that only 9 out of 26 indicators tested exhibit a statistically significant relationship with households’ vulnerability. In total, they explain about one-third of the variation in vulnerability between households, confirming the need for more research on underlying determinants and processes of vulnerability. With inclusion of local knowledge, our study findings can be used for local targeting, priority setting and resource allocation. Complemented with studies analyzing climate change impacts and findings from country-level adaptive capacity studies, governmental policy can be informed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the main difficulties and dilemmas with regard to the issue of legitimacy in the context of climate adaptation are analyzed and illustrated using an in-depth study of the Dutch IJsseldelta Zuid case.
Abstract: In general, the issue of climate change is characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and multifacetedness. In the Netherlands, climate change is in above highly controversial. These characteristics make it difficult to realize adaptation measures that are perceived as legitimate. In this article, we analyze the main difficulties and dilemmas with regard to the issue of legitimacy in the context of climate adaptation. We conceptualize legitimacy from a legal, a planning, and a network perspective and show how the concept of legitimacy evolves within these three perspectives. From a legal perspective, the focus is on the issues of good governance. From a planning perspective, the focus is on the flexibility, learning, and governance capacity. From a network perspective, issues of dialogue, involvement, and support are important. These perspectives bring in different criteria, which are not easy compatible. We describe and illustrate these legitimacy challenges using an in-depth study of the Dutch IJsseldelta Zuid case. From our case study, we conclude that, from a legitimacy perspective, the often acclaimed necessity to be adaptive and flexible is quite problematic. The same holds true for the plea to mainstream adaptation into other policy domains. In our case study, these strategies give rise to serious challenges in relation to good governance and consensus—two indispensable cornerstones of legitimacy.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors take health issues into account in a participatory approach to planning, design, and management of rainwater harvesting and water storage, as well as considering the full range of water storage options would enable better opportunities for enhancing resilience against climate change in vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa.
Abstract: West and East Africa experience high vari- ability of rainfall that is expected to increase with climate change. This results in fluctuations in water availability for food production and other socioeconomic activities. Water harvesting and storage can mitigate the adverse effects of rainfall variability. But past studies have shown that when investments in water storage are not guided by environ- mental health considerations, the increased availability of open water surface may increase the transmission of water- related diseases. This is demonstrated for schistosomiasis associated with small reservoirs in Burkina Faso, and for malaria in Ethiopia around large dams, small dams, and water harvesting ponds. The concern is that the rush to develop water harvesting and storage for climate change adaptation may increase the risk for already vulnerable people, in some cases more than canceling out the benefits of greater water availability. Taking health issues into account in a participatory approach to planning, design, and management of rainwater harvesting and water storage, as well as considering the full range of water storage options would enable better opportunities for enhancing resilience against climate change in vulnerable populations in sub-Saharan Africa.
TL;DR: Wang et al. as discussed by the authors investigated the temporal and spatial changes of major rice disasters occurrence frequency and their relationships to climate change, climate extremes and agronomic practices from 1991 to 2009.
Abstract: Both climate extremes and agricultural disasters have been reported to increase in recent decades; however, so far, we have little idea on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes, as well as their meteorological and agronomic causes. Here, using the observed records on rice disasters at agro-meteorological stations across China and the meteorological indexes, we investigated the temporal and spatial changes of major rice disasters occurrence frequency and their relationships to climate change, climate extremes and agronomic practices from 1991 to 2009. We presented the temporal and spatial changes in occurrence frequency of major rice disasters, including droughts, floods, heat stress, chilling damage, insects and diseases, during the warmer period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000, based on both the observed records and the meteorological indexes. The results showed that changes in rice disasters could be largely ascribed to changes in climate extremes in recent decades. Floods, insects and diseases occurred more frequently at earlier growth stages; in contrast, chilling damage occurred more frequently at later growth stages in southwestern China during the period of 2000–2009, in comparison with the period of 1991–2000. Our findings highlighted the options should be taken timely and scientifically to reduce the disasters and to cope with ongoing climate change, based on the characteristics of agricultural disasters changes in recent decades.
TL;DR: It is argued that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts and differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders.
Abstract: Scenarios have become a powerful tool in integrated assessment and policy analysis for climate change. Socio-economic and climate scenarios are often combined to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities across different sectors and to inform risk management strategies. Such combinations of scenarios can also play an important role in enabling the interaction between experts and other stakeholders, framing issues and providing a means for making explicit and dealing with uncertainties. Drawing on experience with the application of scenarios to climate change assessments in recent Dutch research, the paper argues that scenario approaches need to be matched to the frames of stakeholders who are situated in specific decision contexts. Differentiated approaches (top-down, bottom-up and interactive) are needed to address the different frames and decision-making contexts of stakeholders. A framework is proposed to map scenarios and decision contexts onto two dimensions: the spatial scale of the context and the starting point of approach used in scenario development (top-down, bottom-up or incident-driven). Future climate and socio-economic scenario development will be shaped by the need to become better aligned with multiple interacting uncertainties salient to stakeholders.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors argue that climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies.
Abstract: There is a growing availability of climate change information, offered to scientists and policy makers through climate services. However, climate services are not well taken up by the policy-making and planning community. Climate services focus on primary impacts of climate change, e.g., the disclosure of precipitation and temperature data, and this seems insufficient in meeting their needs. In this paper, we argue that, in order to reach the spatial planning community, climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies. We argue there should be more focus on translating consequences of climate change to land-use claims and subsequently discuss the validity, consequences and implications of these claims with stakeholders, so they can play a role in spatial planning processes where much of the climate adaptation takes place. The term Climate Adaptation Services is introduced as being a stepwise approach supporting the assessment of vulnerability in a wider perspective and include the design and appraisal of adaptation strategies in a multi-stakeholder setting. We developed the Climate Adaptation Atlas and the Climate Ateliers as tools within the Climate Adaptation Services approach to support decision-making and planning processes. In this paper, we describe the different steps of our approach and report how some of the challenges were addressed.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, and examine how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra-and cross-sector collaboration.
Abstract: To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g., the farmer age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour).
Abstract: Farming communities are increasingly expected to manage their agricultural activities in ways that ensure sustainable flows of a wide range of ecosystem services for society. The land use and management choices that farmers make are dependent upon their socio-economic characteristics and background, and in turn have important implications for the landscape and associated ecosystem services. Thus, a better understanding about the linkages between the characteristics of farmers, farm management and land use is important for managing multifunctional agro-ecosystems. In this paper, we first develop a typology of farmers for Torrealvilla catchment in Murcia, Spain, according to the characteristics of their households and farm management (e.g. the farmer’s age, household income, water access, land tenure and farm labour). This analysis distinguishes six types of farmers. Secondly, we analyse the link between farmer typology and the farmers’ responses to a number of scenarios. The scenarios describe different likely changes to agriculture in the catchment in terms of environmental constraints (irrigation water availability and rainfall pattern) and environmental policy regulation (water taxation and subsidies). This exercise enables us to explore the range of future land use changes that are likely to occur in the study area. The results indicate that: rain-fed agriculture is expected to experience gradual but extensive abandonment; vegetable/fruit farming and pig/animal rearing are likely to stagnate or even decline; and growing of grapes is likely to expand. Thirdly, we qualitatively evaluate how future land use changes are likely to affect key ecosystem services in the study area including future agricultural production and associated local income generation, erosion control, maintenance of the groundwater table and various cultural services associated with a heterogeneous agro-ecosystem. Particular changes such as expansion of grape production will increase food production and local income at the cost of further depletion of the aquifer and increased risk of salinisation. The outcomes of the study highlight that, to be effective, the design of agri-environmental schemes and other government interventions (e.g. specific compulsory regulations on farming practices and associated water use) should carefully take into account the characteristics of the farmers within the area of interest, their land uses and the possible diversity of responses to policy and environmental drivers. Opportunities exist for future studies quantifying the extent of the impacts of ecosystem service provision through formal models combining farmers’ land use decision-making and spatially explicit modelling of landscape processes.