The state of desalination and brine production: A global outlook.

The 3 most often-used performance measures in the cognitive and decision sciences are choice, response or decision time, and confidence. We develop a random walk/diffusion theory-2-stage dynamic signal detection (2DSD) theory-that accounts for all 3 measures using a common underlying process. The model uses a drift diffusion process to account for choice and decision time. To estimate confidence, we assume that evidence continues to accumulate after the choice. Judges then interrupt the process to categorize the accumulated evidence into a confidence rating. The model explains all known interrelationships between the 3 indices of performance. Furthermore, the model also accounts for the distributions of each variable in both a perceptual and general knowledge task. The dynamic nature of the model also reveals the moderating effects of time pressure on the accuracy of choice and confidence. Finally, the model specifies the optimal solution for giving the fastest choice and confidence rating for a given level of choice and confidence accuracy. Judges are found to act in a manner consistent with the optimal solution when making confidence judgments.

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Two-stage dynamic signal detection: a theory of choice, decision time, and confidence.

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is found in 1-10% of all pregnancies, and among women with risk factors even twice often. It is connected to worse obstetric results, and its complications can arise long time after delivery. In the paper we described etiology, diagnostics and monitoring of IUGR and its consequences for the child and for the course of neonatal periode.

Intrauterine growth restriction

That prenatal events can have life-long consequences is now well established. Nevertheless, research on the Fetal Origins Hypothesis is flourishing and has expanded to include the early childhood (postnatal) environment. Why does this literature have a “second act?” We summarize the major themes and contributions driving the empirical literature since our 2011 reviews, and try to interpret the literature in light of an overarching conceptual framework about how human capital is produced early in life. One major finding is that relatively mild shocks in early life can have substantial negative impacts, but that the effects are often heterogeneous reflecting differences in child endowments, budget constraints, and production technologies. Moreover, shocks, investments, and interventions can interact in complex ways that are only beginning to be understood. Many advances in our knowledge are due to increasing accessibility of comprehensive administrative data that allow events in early life to be linked to long-term outcomes. Yet, we still know relatively little about the interval between, and thus about whether it would be feasible to identify and intervene with affected individuals at some point between early life and adulthood. We do know enough, however, to be able to identify some interventions that hold promise for improving child outcomes in early life and throughout the life course.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

Childhood Circumstances and Adult Outcomes: Act Ii

Freshwater ecosystems provide irreplaceable services for both nature and society. The quality and quantity of freshwater affect biogeochemical processes and ecological dynamics that determine biodiversity, ecosystem productivity, and human health and welfare at local, regional and global scales. Freshwater ecosystems and their associated riparian habitats are amongst the most biologically diverse on Earth, and have inestimable economic, health, cultural, scientific and educational values. Yet human impacts to lakes, rivers, streams, wetlands and groundwater are dramatically reducing biodiversity and robbing critical natural resources and services from current and future generations. Freshwater biodiversity is declining rapidly on every continent and in every major river basin on Earth, and this degradation is occurring more rapidly than in terrestrial ecosystems. Currently, about one third of all global freshwater discharges pass through human agricultural, industrial or urban infrastructure. About one fifth of the Earth's arable land is now already equipped for irrigation, including all the most productive lands, and this proportion is projected to surpass one third by midcentury to feed the rapidly expanding populations of humans and commensal species, especially poultry and ruminant livestock. Less than one fifth of the world's preindustrial freshwater wetlands remain, and this proportion is projected to decline to under one tenth by midcentury, with imminent threats from water transfer megaprojects in Brazil and India, and coastal wetland drainage megaprojects in China. The Living Planet Index for freshwater vertebrate populations has declined to just one third that of 1970, and is projected to sink below one fifth by midcentury. A linear model of global economic expansion yields the chilling prediction that human utilization of critical freshwater resources will approach one half of the Earth's total capacity by midcentury. Although the magnitude and growth of the human freshwater footprint are greater than is generally understood by policy makers, the news media, or the general public, slowing and reversing dramatic losses of freshwater species and ecosystems is still possible. We recommend a set of urgent policy actions that promote clean water, conserve watershed services, and restore freshwater ecosystems and their vital services. Effective management of freshwater resources and ecosystems must be ranked amongst humanity's highest priorities.

Scientists' warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis.

It was the summer of 1969 and the Cuyahoga River was on fire. This wasn’t the first time the river in northern Ohio had burned, it wasn’t even the tenth. Every few years, an errant spark would ignite the river, threatening nearby buildings or passing ships. The fire of 1969 was not especially notable for the damage it caused or the duration of its blaze. But it did ignite the tinderbox of environmental unrest that had already been smoldering across the country. Within six months of the fire, the U.S. Congress passed the National Environmental Policy Act, establishing the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). One of the first acts of the EPA was to implement the Clean Water Act of 1972, which mandated that all waterways must be of sufficient quality to be safe for swimming and aquatic life by 1983. Fifty years on, water quality issues remain a challenge. Like the Cuyahoga River in 1969, many other water bodies are on fire, some literally, like the Meiyu River in eastern China or Bellandur Lake in Bangalore, India, which has rained ash onto buildings up to six miles away. Yet most burn imperceptibly, with bacteria, sewage, chemicals, and plastics sucking out the dissolved oxygen much like a raging inferno and transforming water into poison for humans and ecosystems alike. Understanding of this problem has been impaired not just by a lack of information, but also by the complexity of issues that often transcend discipline boundaries, environmental science, health, hydrology, and economics, with each offering different insights. This report brings forth new results that illuminate the impacts of the hidden dangers that lie beneath the water’s surface and elucidate strategies for combating them. The main, though not exclusive, focus is on the parameters that are tracked in the water quality Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6.3.2, with its focus on nutrient loads, salt balances, and overall environmental health of water bodies. The report demonstrates that the parameters identified in SDG 6.3.2 have impacts that are wider, deeper, and larger than previously known, suggesting the need for a broader focus on water quality beyond indicators of sanitation-related contaminants such as fecal coliforms and Escherichia coli. Recognizing the scope of the problem, identifying the magnitude of the impacts, and formulating ways to address these will be critical to improving public health, preserving ecosystems, and sustaining economic growth throughout the twenty-first century.

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Quality Unknown: The Invisible Water Crisis

The 21st century will witness the collision of two powerful forces, burgeoning population growth, together with a changing climate. With population growth, water scarcity will proliferate to new areas across the globe. And with climate change, rainfall will become more fickle, with longer and deeper periods of droughts and deluges. This report presents new evidence to advance understanding on how rainfall shocks coupled with water scarcity, impacts farms, firms, and families. On farms, the largest consumers of water in the world, impacts are channeled from declining yields to changing landscapes. In cities, water extremes especially when combined with unreliable infrastructure can stall firm production, sales, and revenue. At the center of this are families, who feel the impacts of this uncertainty on their incomes, jobs, and long-term health and welfare. Although a rainfall shock may be fleeting, its consequences can become permanent and shape the destiny of those who experience it. Pursuing business as usual will lead many countries down a “parched path” where droughts shape destinies. Avoiding this misery in slow motion will call for fundamental changes to water policy around the globe. Building resilience to rainfall variability will require using different policy instruments to address the multifaceted nature of water. A key message of this report is that water has multiple economic attributes, each of which entail distinct policy responses. If water is not managed more prudently, from source, to tap, and back to source, the crises observed today will become the catastrophes of tomorrow.

Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability

The fallout of nitrogen pollution is considered one of the largest global externalities facing the world, impacting air, water, soil, and human health. This paper combines data from the Demographic and Health Survey data set across India, Vietnam, and 33 African countries to analyze the causal links between pollution exposure experienced during the very earliest stages of life and later-life health. The results show that pollution exposure experienced in the critical years of development—from birth until age three—is associated with decreased height as an adult, a well-known indicator of overall health and productivity, and is robust to several statistical checks. Because adult height is related to education, labor productivity, and income, this also implies a loss of earning potential. The analysis begins within an assessment in India, where the data are more available, and is then extended to geographic settings including Vietnam and 33 countries in Africa. The results are consistent and show that early-life exposure to nitrogen pollution in water can lower height-for-age scores during childhood in Vietnam and during infancy in Africa. These findings add to the evidence on the enduring consequences of water pollution and identify a critical area for policy intervention.

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The Nitrogen Legacy : The Long-Term Effects of Water Pollution on Human Capital

Appendix F: Personal observations on the reliability of the shuttle

Declining water quality can impact the economy in various ways. Impacts can be found in the health sector, where labor productivity can be affected, in agriculture, where the quality and quantity of food produced can be reduced, and in tourism, real estate, aquaculture/fisheries and other sectors which rely on environmental quality and ecosystem services. Despite these well-known impacts, finding economy-wide affects of water quality on economic activity can be elusive. In this paper we attempt to fill this gap by using a conventional empirical approach in contemporary environmental economics and new data on economic activity and water quality for nineteen countries from 1990-2014. The authors find that when rivers become very heavily polluted, regions downstream see reductions in economic growth, losing between 0.8 and 2.0 percent of economic growth. These losses imply that in many places, the costs of environmental degradation are severely under-estimated and well above efficient levels.

Aude-Sophie Rodella

Papers

Quality Unknown: The Invisible Water Crisis

Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability

The Nitrogen Legacy : The Long-Term Effects of Water Pollution on Human Capital

Appendix F: Personal observations on the reliability of the shuttle

The Impact of Water Quality on GDP Growth : Evidence from Around the World