Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

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Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acidification have been measured across a range of taxa, but this information exists as case studies and has not been synthesized into meaningful comparisons amongst response variables and functional groups. We used meta-analytic techniques to explore the biological responses to ocean acidification, and found negative effects on survival, calcification, growth and reproduction. However, there was significant variation in the sensitivity of marine organisms. Calcifying organisms generally exhibited larger negative responses than noncalcifying organisms across numerous response variables, with the exception of crustaceans, which calcify but were not negatively affected. Calcification responses varied significantly amongst organisms using different mineral forms of calcium carbonate. Organisms using one of the more soluble forms of calcium carbonate (high-magnesium calcite) can be more resilient to ocean acidification than less soluble forms (calcite and aragonite). Additionally, there was variation in the sensitivities of different developmental stages, but this variation was dependent on the taxonomic group. Our analyses suggest that the biological effects of ocean acidification are generally large and negative, but the variation in sensitivity amongst organisms has important implications for ecosystem responses.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01518.x

Meta‐analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms

It is clear that the above can lead to confusion when scientists of different countries are trying to communicate with each other. Another example is the burrowing rodent called a gopher found throughout the western United States. In the southeastern United States the term gopher refers to a burrowing turtle very similar to the desert tortoise found in the American southwest. One final example; two North American mammals known as the elk and the caribou are known in Europe as the reindeer and the elk. We never sing “Rudolph the Red-nosed elk”! Confused? This was the reason for creating an internationally recognized system of naming organisms. To avoid confusion, living organisms are assigned a scientific name based on Latin or Latinized words. The English sparrow is Passer domesticus or Passer domesticus (italics or underlining these two names is the official written representation of a scientific name). Using a uniform naming system allows scientists from all over the world to recognize exactly which life form a scientist is referring to. The naming process is called the binomial system of nomenclature. Passer is comparable to a surname and is called the genus, while domesticus is the specific or species name (like your given name) of the English sparrow. Now scientists can give all sparrow-like birds the genus Passer but the species name will vary. All similar genera (plural for genus) can be grouped into another, “higher” category (see below). Study the following for a more through understanding of taxonomy. Taxonomy Analogy Kingdom: Animalia Country

Diversity of life

Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals’ responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2010.00166.x

Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.

Pollinators may be declining globally, a matter of concern because animal pollination is required by most of the world's plant species, including many crop plants. Human land use and the loss of native habitats is thought to be an important driver of decline for wild, native pollinators, yet the findings of published studies on this topic have never been quantitatively synthesized. Here we use meta-analysis to synthesize the literature on how bees, the most important group of pollinators, are affected by human disturbances such as habitat loss, grazing, logging, and agriculture. We obtained 130 effect sizes from 54 published studies recording bee abundance and/or species richness as a function of human disturbance. Both bee abundance and species richness were significantly, negatively affected by disturbance. However, the magnitude of the effects was not large. Furthermore, the only disturbance type showing a significant negative effect, habitat loss and fragmentation, was statistically significant only in systems where very little natural habitat remains. Therefore, it would be premature to draw conclusions about habitat loss having caused global pollinator decline without first assessing the extent to which the existing studies represent the status of global ecosystems. Future pollinator declines seem likely given forecasts of increasing land-use change.

https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1890/08-1245.1

A meta‐analysis of bees' responses to anthropogenic disturbance

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

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Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

Ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation is a global stressor with potentially far-reaching ecological impacts. In the first quantitative analysis of the effects of UVB on aquatic organisms, we used meta-analytic techniques to explore the effects of UVB on survival and growth in freshwater and marine systems. Based on the large body of literature on the effects of UVB in aquatic systems, we predicted that UVB would have different effects in different habitats, experimental venues, trophic groups and life history stages. Contrary to our predictions, we found an overall negative effect of UVB on both survival and growth that crossed life histories, trophic groups, habitats and experimental venues. UVB had larger negative effects on growth in embryos compared with later life history stages. Despite the overall negative effect of UVB, effect sizes varied widely. In the survival analyses, no relationship between mean effect size and taxonomic groups or levels of exposure to UVB was detected. In the growth analyses, a larger negative effect on protozoans was observed. Our analyses suggest that the effects of UVB in aquatic systems are large and negative but highly variable between organisms. Variation in susceptibility may have important implications for population and community structure.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01022.x

Effects of UVB radiation on marine and freshwater organisms: a synthesis through meta‐analysis

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

Human alterations to natural systems have resulted in a loss of biological diversity around the world. Amphibian population losses have been more severe than those of birds and mammals. Amphibian population declines are likely due to many factors including habitat loss, disease, contaminants, introduced species and ultraviolet-B (UVB) radiation. The effect of UVB, however, varies widely among species and can vary within populations of the same species or at different life-history stages. This variation has often led to opposing conclusions about how UVB affects amphibians. We used meta-analysis techniques to explore the overall effects of UVB radiation on survival in amphibians. We also used recently developed factorial meta-analytic techniques to quantify potential interactions between UVB radiation and other stressors on amphibians. Ultraviolet-B radiation reduced survival of amphibians by 1.9-fold compared with shielded controls. Larvae were more susceptible to damage from UVB radiation compared with embryos, and salamanders were more susceptible compared with frogs and toads. Furthermore, UVB radiation interacted synergistically with other environmental stressors and resulted in greater than additive effects on survival when 2 stressors were present. Our results suggest that UVB radiation is an important stressor in amphibians, particularly in light of potential synergisms between UVB and other stressors in amphibian habitats.

A meta-analysis of the effects of ultraviolet B radiation and its synergistic interactions with pH, contaminants, and disease on amphibian survival.

Numerous factors, such as global environmental changes, habitat destruction, introduced species, diseases, and chemical pollution, appear to be contributing to amphibian population declines. Moreover, the life history characteristics and behavior of many amphibian species appear to be placing them in jeopardy. Such behaviors and ecological attributes were molded over evolutionary time under selection pressures that acted on amphibians in a variety of ways. Many biologists who study amphibian population declines, however, have failed to consider some of these evolutionary aspects. Better understanding of amphibian population declines requires that scientists and policymakers consider the ecological processes associated with the declines in light of evolutionary principles such as these: Evolution is limited by historical constraints; not all evolution is adaptive; adaptations are often compromises; evolution can only alter existing variations; and evolution takes time.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1641/B570517

Betsy A. Bancroft

Papers

Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on Amphibian Populations

Effects of UVB radiation on marine and freshwater organisms: a synthesis through meta‐analysis

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

A meta-analysis of the effects of ultraviolet B radiation and its synergistic interactions with pH, contaminants, and disease on amphibian survival.

Amphibian Population Declines: Evolutionary Considerations