We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Acknowledgments vii Preface xiii Chapter 1. Educational Attainment: Overall Trends, Disparities, and the Public Universities We Study 1 Chapter 2. Bachelor's Degree Attainment on a National Level 20 Chapter 3. Finishing College at Public Universities 32 Chapter 4. Fields of Study, Time-to-Degree, and College Grades 57 Chapter 5. High Schools and "Undermatching" 87 Chapter 6. Test Scores and High School Grades as Predictors 112 Chapter 7. Transfer Students and the Path from Two-Year to Four-Year Colleges 134 Chapter 8. Financial Aid and Pricing on a National Level 149 Chapter 9. Financial Aid at Public Universities 166 Chapter 10. Institutional Selectivity and Institutional Effects 192 Chapter 11. Target Populations 207 Chapter 12. Looking Ahead 223 Appendix A. The Modern Evolution of America's Flagship Universities by Eugene M. Tobin 239 Notes 265 List of Figures 337 List of Tables 347 List of Appendix Tables 349 References 357 Index 377

Crossing the Finish Line:: Completing College at America’s Public Universities (Association for Institutional Research, May 30, 2010)

Individuals with strong self-regulated learning (SRL) skills, characterized by the ability to plan, manage and control their learning process, can learn faster and outperform those with weaker SRL skills. SRL is critical in learning environments that provide low levels of support and guidance, as is commonly the case in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). Learners can be trained to engage in SRL and actively supported with prompts and activities. However, effective implementation of learner support systems in MOOCs requires an understanding of which SRL strategies are most effective and how these strategies manifest in online behavior. Moreover, identifying learner characteristics that are predictive of weaker SRL skills can advance efforts to provide targeted support without obtrusive survey instruments. We investigated SRL in a sample of 4,831 learners across six MOOCs based on individual records of overall course achievement, interactions with course content, and survey responses. We found that goal setting and strategic planning predicted attainment of personal course goals, while help seeking was associated with lower goal attainment. Learners with stronger SRL skills were more likely to revisit previously studied course materials, especially course assessments. Several learner characteristics, including demographics and motivation, predicted learners' SRL skills. We discuss implications for theory and the development of learning environments that provide adaptive support. Goal setting and strategic planning positively predict goal attainment in MOOCs.Help seeking negatively predicts goal attainment, e.g., earning a certificate.Self-reported SRL strategies manifest behaviorally in revisiting course content.Learner characteristics (demographics, motivation, etc.) predict self-reported SRL.

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Self-regulated learning strategies predict learner behavior and goal attainment in Massive Open Online Courses

College Choices: The Economics of Where to Go, When to Go, and How to Pay For It

As the workforce has become more educated, educational decisions are about what type of education to pursue as well as how much to pursue. In college, individuals somewhat specialize through their choice of college major. Further specialization occurs in graduate school. This chapter investigates how majors and graduate school affect labor market outcomes, as well as how individuals make these potentially important decisions. To do so, we develop a dynamic model of educational decision-making. In light of the model, we examine the estimation issues associated with obtaining causal effects of educational choices on earnings. We then examine ways that authors have overcome the selection problem, as well as the approaches authors have taken to estimate the process by which these educational decisions are made.

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The Analysis of Field Choice in College and Graduate School: Determinants and Wage Effects

Supplemental Material for "Persistence Patterns in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)"

Using a unique dataset of 44 Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), this article examines critical patterns of enrollment, engagement, persistence, and completion among students in online higher education. By leveraging fixed-effects specifications based on over 2.1 million student observations across more than 2,900 lectures, we analyzed engagement, persistence, and completion rates at the student, lecture, and course levels. We found compelling and consistent temporal patterns: across all courses, participation declines rapidly in the first week but subsequently flattens out in later weeks of the course. However, this decay is not entirely uniform. We also found that several student and lecturespecific traits were associated with student persistence and engagement. For example, the sequencing of a lecture within a batch of released videos as well as its title wording were related to student watching. We also saw consistent patterns in how student characteristics are associated with persistence and completion. Students were more likely to complete the course if they completed a pre-course survey or followed a quantitative track (as opposed to qualitative or auditing track) when available. These findings suggest potential course design changes that are likely to increase engagement, persistence, and completion in this important, new educational setting.

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Persistence Patterns in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs).

Historically, admissions committees for biomedical Ph.D. programs have heavily weighed GRE scores when considering applications for admission. The predictive validity of GRE scores on graduate student success is unclear, and there have been no recent investigations specifically on the relationship between general GRE scores and graduate student success in biomedical research. Data from Vanderbilt University Medical School's biomedical umbrella program were used to test to what extent GRE scores can predict outcomes in graduate school training when controlling for other admissions information. Overall, the GRE did not prove useful in predicating who will graduate with a Ph.D., pass the qualifying exam, have a shorter time to defense, deliver more conference presentations, publish more first author papers, or obtain an individual grant or fellowship. GRE scores were found to be moderate predictors of first semester grades, and weak to moderate predictors of graduate GPA and some elements of a faculty evaluation. These findings suggest admissions committees of biomedical doctoral programs should consider minimizing their reliance on GRE scores to predict the important measures of progress in the program and student productivity.

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The Limitations of the GRE in Predicting Success in Biomedical Graduate School

Improving college performance and retention can be difficult. We propose a simple and low-cost change in the way colleges use the ACT exam in their admission decisions that can greatly increase their ability to identify students at a high risk of underperforming and dropping out. Specifically, we show that only two of the four subtests of the ACT, English and Mathematics, can effectively predict outcomes in college. This result is robust across various samples, specifications and outcome measures. We demonstrate that by eliminating the noise associated with the two nonpredictive subtests, student-college matches can be significantly improved. (JEL I23)

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Improving College Performance and Retention the Easy Way: Unpacking the ACT Exam

Although prior research has suggested that some students may be averse to taking out loans to finance their college education, there is little empirical evidence showing the extent to which loan aversion exists or how it affects different populations of students. This study provides the first large-scale quantitative evidence of levels of loan aversion in the United States. Using survey data collected on more than 6,000 individuals, we examine the frequency of loan aversion in three distinct populations. Depending on the measure, between 20 and 40% of high school seniors exhibit loan aversion with lower rates among community college students and adults not in college. Women are less likely to express loan-averse attitudes than men, and Hispanic respondents are more likely to be loan averse than White respondents.

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Brent J. Evans

Papers

Supplemental Material for "Persistence Patterns in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)"

Persistence Patterns in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs).

The Limitations of the GRE in Predicting Success in Biomedical Graduate School

Improving College Performance and Retention the Easy Way: Unpacking the ACT Exam

Understanding Loan Aversion in Education: Evidence from High School Seniors, Community College Students, and Adults. CEPA Working Paper No. 16-15.