Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

This paper discusses conceptual frameworks for actively involving highly distributed loads in power system control actions. The context for load control is established by providing an overview of system control objectives, including economic dispatch, automatic generation control, and spinning reserve. The paper then reviews existing initiatives that seek to develop load control programs for the provision of power system services. We then discuss some of the challenges to achieving a load control scheme that balances device-level objectives with power system-level objectives. One of the central premises of the paper is that, in order to achieve full responsiveness, direct load control (as opposed to price response) is required to enable fast time scale, predictable control opportunities, especially for the provision of ancillary services such as regulation and contingency reserves. Centralized, hierarchical, and distributed control architectures are discussed along with benefits and disadvantages, especially in relation to integration with the legacy power system control architecture. Implications for the supporting communications infrastructure are also considered. Fully responsive load control is illustrated in the context of thermostatically controlled loads and plug-in electric vehicles.

/pdf/achieving-controllability-of-electric-loads-2zgxun0ikw.pdf

Achieving Controllability of Electric Loads

http://dspace.khazar.org/bitstream/20.500.12323/4322/1/143WWSCountries.pdf

100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight All-Sector Energy Roadmaps for 139 Countries of the World

Large-Scale Simultaneous Hypothesis Testing: The Choice of a Null Hypothesis

https://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/oeprod/DocumentsandMedia/Demand_Response_in_U.S._Electricity_Markets_-__Empirical_Evidence.pdf

Demand Response in U.S. Electricity Markets: Empirical Evidence

In meeting its retail sales obligations, management of a local distribution company (LDC) must determine the extent to which it should rely on spot markets, forward contracts, and the increasingly popular long-term tolling agreements under which it pays a fee to reserve generator capacity. We address these issues by solving a mathematical programming model to derive the efficient frontier that summarizes the optimal tradeoffs available to the LDC between procurement risk and expected cost. To illustrate the approach, we estimate the expected procurement costs and associated variances that proxy for risk through a spot-price regression for the spot-purchase alternative and a variable-cost regression for the tolling-agreement alternative. The estimated regressions yield the estimates required to determine the efficient frontier. We develop several such frontiers under alternative assumptions as to the forward-contract price and the tolling agreement's capacity payment, and discuss the implications of our results for LDC management.

/pdf/efficient-frontiers-for-electricity-procurement-by-an-ldc-u9y2mwfubv.pdf

Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options

Now that California has AMI, what can the state do with it?

A local electricity distribution company (LDC) can reduce its exposure to the inherent risks of spot-price volatility and uncertain future demand via forward contracts. Management's problem is to determine the optimal forward-contract purchase. We propose a practical three-stage approach for dealing with the problem. The first stage determines an optimal purchase by solving a cost-constrained risk-minimization problem. The second stage derives the efficient frontier of tradeoffs between expected cost and cost risk from the first-stage solution, at various bounds on the expected cost. The optimal solution is found by melding the frontier with management's risk preferences. In the third stage, the model's parameters are estimated from data typically available to an LDC and used to determine its forward-contract purchase.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1057%2Fpalgrave.jors.2601769.pdf

The efficient frontier for spot and forward purchases: an application to electricity

We use a large Texas database to quantify the effect of rising wind generation on the payoffs of a tolling agreement for natural-gas-fired generation of electricity. We find that while a 20% increase in wind generation may not have a statistically-significant effect, a 40% increase can reduce the agreement's average payoff by 8% to 13%. Since natural-gas-fired generation is necessary for integrating large amounts of intermittent wind energy into an electric grid, our finding contributes to the policy debate of capacity adequacy and system reliability in a restructured electricity market that will see large-scale wind-generation development.

Brian Horii

Papers

Efficient frontiers for electricity procurement by an LDC with multiple purchase options

Now that California has AMI, what can the state do with it?

The efficient frontier for spot and forward purchases: an application to electricity

Blowing in the Wind: Vanishing Payoffs of a Tolling Agreement for Natural-gas-fired Generation of Electricity in Texas

Area- and time-specific marginal capacity costs of electricity distribution