Objectives. —To improve end-of-life decision making and reduce the frequency of a mechanically supported, painful, and prolonged process of dying. Design. —A 2-year prospective observational study (phase I) with 4301 patients followed by a 2-year controlled clinical trial (phase II) with 4804 patients and their physicians randomized by specialty group to the intervention group (n=2652) or control group (n=2152). Setting. —Five teaching hospitals in the United States. Patients. —A total of 9105 adults hospitalized with one or more of nine life-threatening diagnoses; an overall 6-month mortality rate of 47%. Intervention. —Physicians in the intervention group received estimates of the likelihood of 6-month survival for every day up to 6 months, outcomes of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and functional disability at 2 months. A specially trained nurse had multiple contacts with the patient, family, physician, and hospital staff to elicit preferences, improve understanding of outcomes, encourage attention to pain control, and facilitate advance care planning and patient-physician communication. Results. —The phase I observation documented shortcomings in communication, frequency of aggressive treatment, and the characteristics of hospital death: only 47% of physicians knew when their patients preferred to avoid CPR; 46% of do-not-resuscitate (DNR) orders were written within 2 days of death; 38% of patients who died spent at least 10 days in an intensive care unit (ICU); and for 50% of conscious patients who died in the hospital, family members reported moderate to severe pain at least half the time. During the phase II intervention, patients experienced no improvement in patient-physician communication (eg, 37% of control patients and 40% of intervention patients discussed CPR preferences) or in the five targeted outcomes, ie, incidence or timing of written DNR orders (adjusted ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval [Cl], 0.90 to 1.15), physicians' knowledge of their patients'preferences not to be resuscitated (adjusted ratio, 1.22; 95% Cl, 0.99 to 1.49), number of days spent in an ICU, receiving mechanical ventilation, or comatose before death (adjusted ratio, 0.97; 95% Cl, 0.87 to 1.07), or level of reported pain (adjusted ratio, 1.15; 95% Cl, 1.00 to 1.33). The intervention also did not reduce use of hospital resources (adjusted ratio, 1.05; 95% Cl, 0.99 to 1.12). Conclusions. —The phase I observation of SUPPORT confirmed substantial shortcomings in care for seriously ill hospitalized adults. The phase II intervention failed to improve care or patient outcomes. Enhancing opportunities for more patient-physician communication, although advocated as the major method for improving patient outcomes, may be inadequate to change established practices. To improve the experience of seriously ill and dying patients, greater individual and societal commitment and more proactive and forceful measures may be needed. (JAMA. 1995;274:1591-1598)

https://jamanetwork.com/HttpHandlers/ArticlePdfHandler.ashx?journal=JAMA&articleId=391724&pdfFileName=jama_274_20_032.pdf

A controlled trial to improve care for seriously ill hospitalized patients: The study to understand prognoses and preferences for outcomes and risks of treatments (SUPPORT)

Objective:To improve the accuracy of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) method for predicting hospital mortality among critically ill adults and to evaluate changes in the accuracy of earlier APACHE models.Design:Observational cohort study.Setting:A total of 104 intensive ca

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV: hospital mortality assessment for today's critically ill patients.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the changes in activities of daily living (ADL) function occurring before and after hospital admission in older people hospitalized with medical illness and to assess the effect of age on loss of ADL function.

DESIGN: Prospective observational study.

SETTING: The general medical service of two hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS: Two thousand two hundred ninety-three patients aged 70 and older (mean age 80, 64% women, 24% nonwhite).

MEASUREMENTS: At the time of hospital admission, patients or their surrogates were interviewed about their independence in five ADLs (bathing, dressing, eating, transferring, and toileting) 2 weeks before admission (baseline) and at admission. Subjects were interviewed about ADL function at discharge. Outcome measures included functional decline between baseline and discharge and functional changes between baseline and admission and between admission and discharge.

RESULTS: Thirty-five percent of patients declined in ADL function between baseline and discharge. This included the 23% of patients who declined between baseline and admission and failed to recover to baseline function between admission and discharge and the 12% of patients who did not decline between baseline and admission but declined between hospital admission and discharge. Twenty percent of patients declined between baseline and admission but recovered to baseline function between admission and discharge. The frequency of ADL decline between baseline and discharge varied markedly with age (23%, 28%, 38%, 50%, and 63% in patients aged 70–74, 75–79, 80–84, 85–89, and ≥90, respectively, P < .001). After adjustment for potential confounders, age was not associated with ADL decline before hospitalization (odds ratio (OR) for patients aged ≥90 compared with patients aged 70–74 = 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.88–1.82). In contrast, age was associated with the failure to recover ADL function during hospitalization in patients who declined before admission (OR for patients aged ≥90 compared with patients aged 70–74 = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.20–3.65) and with new losses of ADL function during hospitalization in patients who did not decline before admission (OR for patients aged ≥90 compared with patients aged 70–74 = 3.43, 95% CI = 1.92–6.12).

CONCLUSION: Many hospitalized older people are discharged with ADL function that is worse than their baseline function. The oldest patients are at particularly high risk of poor functional outcomes because they are less likely to recover ADL function lost before admission and more likely to develop new functional deficits during hospitalization

Loss of independence in activities of daily living in older adults hospitalized with medical illnesses: increased vulnerability with age.

Background The questions patients are asked about their preferences with regard to life-sustaining treatment usually focus on specific interventions, but the outcomes of treatment and their likelihood affect patients' preferences. Methods We administered a questionnaire about treatment preferences to 226 persons who were 60 years of age or older and who had a limited life expectancy due to cancer, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The study participants were asked whether they would want to receive a given treatment, first when the outcome was known with certainty and then with different likelihoods of an adverse outcome. The outcome without treatment was specified as death from the underlying disease. Results The burden of treatment (i.e., the length of the hospital stay, extent of testing, and invasiveness of interventions), the outcome, and the likelihood of the outcome all influenced treatment preferences. For a low-burden treatment with the restoration of current hea...

Understanding the Treatment Preferences of Seriously Ill Patients

Objective
To develop a model to assess severity of illness and predict vital status at hospital discharge based on ICU admission data.

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00134-005-2763-5.pdf

SAPS 3—From evaluation of the patient to evaluation of the intensive care unit. Part 2: Development of a prognostic model for hospital mortality at ICU admission

Objective: To assess the accuracy and validity of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III hospital mortality predictions in an independent sample of U.S. intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. Design: Nonrandomized, observational, cohort study. Setting: Two hundred eighty-five ICUs in 161 U.S. hospitals, including 65 members of the Council of Teaching Hospitals and 64 nonteaching hospitals. Patients: A consecutive sample of 37,668 ICU admissions during 1993 to 1996; including 25,448 admissions at hospitals with >400 beds and 1,074 admissions at hospitals with <200 beds. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: We used demographic, clinical, and physiologic information recorded during ICU day 1 and the APACHE III equation to predict the probability of hospital mortality for each patient. We compared observed and predicted mortality for all admissions and across patient subgroups and assessed predictive accuracy using tests of discrimination and calibration. Aggregate hospital death rate was 12.35% and predicted hospital death rate was 12.27% (p=.541). The model discriminated between survivors and nonsurvivors well (area under receiver operating curve = 0.89). A calibration curve showed that the observed number of hospital deaths was close to the number of deaths predicted by the model, but when tested across deciles of risk, goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, chi-square = 48.71, 8 degrees of freedom, p<.0001) was not perfect. Observed and predicted hospital mortality rates were not significantly (p <.01) different for 55 (84.6%) of APACHE III's 65 specific ICU admission diagnoses and for 11 (84.6%) of the 13 residual organ system-related categories. The most frequent diagnoses with significant (p<.01) differences between observed and predicted hospital mortality rates included acute myocardial infarction, drug overdose, nonoperative head trauma, and nonoperative multiple trauma. Conclusions: APACHE III accurately predicted aggregate hospital mortality in an independent sample of U.S. ICU admissions. Further improvements in calibration can be achieved by more precise disease labeling, improved acquisition and weighting of neurologic abnormalities, adjustments that reflect changes in treatment outcomes over time, and a larger national database.

Evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation III predictions of hospital mortality in an independent database.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model estimating the probability of a patient aged 80 years or older having functional limitations 2 months and 12 months after being hospitalized.



DESIGN: A prospective cohort study.



SETTING: Four teaching hospitals in the US.



PARTICIPANTS: Enrolled patients were nonelective hospital admissions aged 80 years or older who stayed in hospital at least 48 hours. The 804 patients who survived and completed an interview at 2 months and the 450 who completed an interview at 12 months were from the 1266 patients in the Hospitalized Elderly Longitudinal Project (HELP) (76% and 47% of survivors, respectively). Median age of the 2-month survivors was 84.7 years.



MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN OUTCOMES: Patient function 2 and 12 months after enrollment was defined by the number of dependencies in Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). Ordinal logistic regression models were constructed to predict functional status. Predictors included demographic characteristics, disease category, geriatric conditions, severity of physiologic imbalance, current quality of life, and exercise capacity and ADLs 2 weeks before study admission.



RESULTS: Before admission, 39% of patients were functionally independent in ADLs. Of patients who survived and were interviewed at 2 months, 32% were functionally independent, and at 12 months, 36% were independent. Among patients with no baseline dependencies, 42% had developed one or more limitations 2 months later, and 41% had limitations 12 months later. The patient's ability to perform activities of daily living at baseline was the most important predictor of functional status at both 2 and 12 months. In a multivariable predictive model, independent predictors of poorer functional status at 2 months included: worse baseline functional status and quality of life; depth of coma, if any; lower serum albumin level; presence of dementia, depression, or incontinence; being bedridden; medical record documentation of need for nursing home; and older age. Model performance, assessed using Somers' D, was 0.61 for 2 months and 0.57 for 12 months (Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) area = 0.81 and .79, respectively.) Bootstrap validation of the month 2 model also yielded a Somers' D = 0.60. The models were well calibrated over the entire risk range. The ROC area for prediction of the loss of independence was 0.76 for 2 months and 0.68 for 12 months.



CONCLUSIONS: Many older patients are functionally impaired at the time of hospitalization, and many develop new functional limitations. A limited amount of readily available clinical information can yield satisfactory predictions of functional status 2 months after hospitalization. Models like this may prove to be useful in clinical care. This work illuminates a potential method for risk adjustment in research studies and for monitoring quality of care.

Predicting functional status outcomes in hospitalized patients aged 80 years and older.

OBJECTIVE: Would increasing the documentation of advance directives (ADs) lead to a reduction in resource utilization? We examined this question by conducting three secondary analyses: (1) we tested for a change in resource use among those who died in the hospital at a time before and after an intervention that increased the documentation of ADs in the medical record; (2) we replicated analyses of published studies that reported an association of chart documentation of ADs and hospital resource use; and (3) we examined whether a potential explanation of the observed association is biased documentation of ADs among patients who have completed an AD.



DESIGN: Replication of analysis of previous published studies using data from a prospective cohort study and block-randomized controlled trial.



SETTING: Five teaching hospitals in the United States.



PATIENTS: A total of 9105 seriously ill patients were enrolled in the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT), including 4301 patients in the 2 years (1989–91) before the Patient Self-Determination Act (PSDA) and 4804 in the 2 years (1992–94) after the PSDA implementation, with 2652 patients receiving the intervention and 2152 serving as controls.



INTERVENTIONS: The SUPPORT intervention provided a nurse to facilitate communication among patients, surrogates, and physicians about preferences for and outcomes of treatments. Documenting existing advance directives was also one of this nurse's tasks. The Patient Self-Determination Act required that health care institutions inquire about and document existing advance directives at the time of hospital admission.



MEASUREMENT: Hospital resource use was derived from the Therapeutic Intensity Scoring System and hospital length of stay, converted into 1994 dollars.



RESULTS: Chart documentation of existing advance directives at the time of study admission increased with both the PSDA and the SUPPORT intervention. We found that intervention patients were more likely to have pre-existing ADs documented. Despite this increase, there was no corresponding change in hospital resource use for those who died during the enrollment hospitalization. Replication of analyses from published studies using data from the block randomized controlled trial found that ADs documented by the third day of serious illness were associated with a 23% reduction in hospital resource use among control patients ($21,284 with ADs documented compared with $26,127 without, 95% CI 1–48% reduction). However, this association was not observed among intervention patients, who had more pre-existing ADs documented in the medical record. Intervention patients with early documentation of ADs showed a trend toward greater cost ($28,017 compared with $24,178 among those without AD documentation, 95% CI 0–25% increase). The rate of documentation and characteristsics of those with documentation differed between control and intervention patients. Intervention patients were more likely (as reported by patient or surrogate interview) to have ADs documented in the medical record by the third day (55% vs 32%, P < .001). In contrast to intervention patients, control patients who were older, less wealthy, less educated, more likely to prefer to forgo CPR, and more likely to want life-sustaining treatment limited had their ADs documented. These associations were not found among intervention patients when comparison was made between those with and those without an AD documented in the medical record.



CONCLUSION: Increasing the documentation of pre-existing ADs was not associated with a reduction in hospital resource use. ADs documented without further intervention by the third day of a serious illness were associated with decreased hospital resource use. However, we did not find this association with an intervention that increased AD documentation. One potential explanation of these findings is that classification of those with an AD was based on chart documentation among a biased cohort of patients. Our results cast doubt on whether policy interventions that only increase AD documentation will reduce hospital resource use for dying patients.

Carlos Alzola

Papers

Evaluation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation III predictions of hospital mortality in an independent database.

Predicting functional status outcomes in hospitalized patients aged 80 years and older.

The Illusion of End-of-Life Resource Savings with Advance Directives

Predicting Future Functional Status for Seriously Ill Hospitalized Adults

The use of benchmarking to identify top performing critical care units: a preliminary assessment of their policies and practices.