世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Are natural resources a “curse” or a “blessing”? The empirical evidence suggests either outcome is possible. The paper surveys a variety of hypotheses and supporting evidence for why some countries benefit and others lose from the presence of natural resources. These include that a resource bonanza induces appreciation of the real exchange rate, deindustrialization and bad growth prospects, and that these adverse effects are more severe in volatile countries with bad institutions and lack of rule of law, corruption, presidential democracies, and underdeveloped financial systems. Another hypothesis is that a resource boom reinforces rent grabbing and civil conflict especially if institutions are bad, induces corruption especially in non-democratic countries, and keeps in place bad policies. Finally, resource rich developing economies seem unable to successfully convert their depleting exhaustible resources into other productive assets. The survey also offers some welfare-based fiscal rules for harnessing resource windfalls in developed and developing economies.

Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?

https://chrisblattman.com/documents/research/2009.Nature&Causes.LRAbook.pdf

On the nature and causes of LRA abduction: What the abductees say

We investigate one of the world’s most pernicious forms of exploitation: child soldiering Most theories can be captured by a principal-agent model that incorporates punishments, indoctrination, and age-varying productivity For rebel leaders, we show it is almost always optimal to coerce rather than reward children, and that leaders will tend to forcibly recruit children when punishment and supervision are cheap, when children’s outside options are poor, and when rebel leaders are resource-constrained To see which mechanisms dominate in practice, we interview and survey former members of Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army, who provide a cruel natural experiment that reveals how children and adults respond to coercive incentives The evidence suggests that children are more easily indoctrinated and disoriented than adults, but are less effective guerrillas; hence the optimal targets of coercion are young adolescents We confirm predications of the model on a new “cross-rebel” dataset and suggest policy solutions

The Industrial Organization of Rebellion: The Logic of Forced Labor and Child Soldiering

/pdf/hotspot-interventions-at-scale-the-effects-of-policing-and-3job1m92bz.pdf

Hotspot interventions at scale: the effects of policing and city services on crime in Bogotá, Colombia

As low-income countries industrialize, workers choose between informal self-employment and low-skill manufacturing. What do workers trade off, and what are the long run impacts of this occupational choice? Self-employment is thought to be volatile and risky, but to provide autonomy and flexibility. Industrial firms are criticized for poor wages and working conditions, but they could offer steady hours among other advantages. We worked with five Ethiopian industrial firms to randomize entry-level applicants to one of three treatment arms: an industrial job offer; a control group; or an “entrepreneurship” program of $300 plus business training. We followed the sample over a year. Industrial jobs offered more hours than the control group’s informal opportunities, but had little impact on incomes due to lower wages. Most applicants quit the sector quickly, finding industrial jobs unpleasant and risky. Indeed, serious health problems rose one percentage point for every month of industrial work. Applicants seem to understand the risks, but took the industrial work temporarily while searching for better work. Meanwhile, the entrepreneurship program stimulated self-employment, raised earnings by 33%, provided steady work hours, and halved the likelihood of taking an industrial job in future. Overall, when the barriers to self-employment were relieved, applicants appear to have preferred entrepreneurial to industrial labor.

/pdf/occupational-choice-in-early-industrializing-societies-1o2mswr7jx.pdf

Occupational Choice in Early Industrializing Societies: Experimental Evidence on the Income and Health Effects of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work

This brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study, entitled Employment generation in rural Africa : mid-term results from an experimental evaluation of the youth opportunities program in Northern Uganda, conducted in the year 2008, in Uganda. The study observed that mid-term results after two years suggest four main findings. First, despite a lack of central monitoring and accountability, most youth invest the transfer in vocational skills and tools. Second, the economic impacts of the transfer are large. Third, the evidence suggests that poor access to credit is a major reason youth cannot start these vocations in the absence of aid. Finally, these economic gains result in modest improvements in social stability. The outcomes are split into three themes: Economic, Alienation, and Subjective Well-being. For each theme, the results are summed and presented as a z-score. The economic impacts are large with an increase in .28 standard deviations. The male and female economic impacts are similar. Funding for the study derives from Gender Action Plan, Uganda Social Action Fund, Spanish Impact Evaluation Fund.

/pdf/employment-generation-in-rural-africa-mid-term-results-from-1fppw3r3am.pdf

Christopher Blattman

Papers

On the nature and causes of LRA abduction: What the abductees say

The Industrial Organization of Rebellion: The Logic of Forced Labor and Child Soldiering

Hotspot interventions at scale: the effects of policing and city services on crime in Bogotá, Colombia

Occupational Choice in Early Industrializing Societies: Experimental Evidence on the Income and Health Effects of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work

Employment generation in rural Africa : mid-term results from an experimental evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program in Northern Uganda