Showing papers by "Clark Glymour published in 1999"

Computation, Causation, and Discovery

Abstract: In science, business and policymaking - anywhere data are used in prediction - two sorts of problems requiring very different methods of analysis often arise. The first, problems of recognition and classification, concerns learning how to use some features of a system to accurately predict other features of that system. The second, problems of causal discovery, concerns learning how to predict those changes to some features of a system that will result if an intervention changes other features. This book is about the second - more difficult - type of problem. Typical problems of causal discovery are: how will a change in commission rates affect the total sales of a company? How will a reduction in cigarette smoking among older smokers affect their life expectancy? How will a change in the formula a college uses to award scholarships affect its dropout rate? These sorts of changes are interventions that directly alter some features of the system and perhaps - and this is the question - indirectly alter others. The contributors discuss recent research and applications using Bayes nets or directed graphic representations, including representations of feedback of "recursive" systems. The book contains a thorough discussion of foundational issues, algorithms, proof techniques, and applications to economics, physics, biology, educational research and other areas.

A Mind Is a Terrible Thing to Waste

Abstract: Jaegwon Kim's Mind in a Physical World is an argument about mental causation that provides both a metaphysical theory and a lucid commentary on contemporary philosophical views. While I strongly recommend Kim's book to anyone interested in the subject, my endorsement is not unconditional, because I cannot make the same recomendation of the subject itself. Considering arguments of Davidson, Putnam, Burge, Block, and Kim himself, I conclude that the subject turns on a variety of implausible but received arguments, and that a useful study of mental causation cannot be divorced from scientific details of cognitive psychology, physics, and neuroscience.

Autonomous Science Decisions for Mars Sample Return

Abstract: In the near future NASA intends to explore Mars in preparation for a sample return mission using robotic devices such as landers rovers, orbiters, airplanes, and/or balloons. Such platforms will likely carry imaging devices to characterize the surface morphology, and a variety of analytical instruments intended to evaluated the chemical and mineralogical nature of the environment(s) that they encounter. Historically, mission operations have involved the following sequence of activities: (1) return of scientific data from the vehicle; (2) evaluation of the data by space scientists; (3) recommendations of the scientists regarding future mission activity; (4) transmission of commands to the vehicle to achieve this activity; and (5) new activity by the vehicle in response to those commands.

Autonomous Science Decision Making for Mars Sample Return

Abstract: In the near future NASA intends to explore Mars in preparation for a sample return mission using robotic devices such as landers, rovers, orbiters, airplanes, and/or balloons. Such platforms will likely carry imaging devices to characterize the surface morphology, and a variety of analytical instruments intended to evaluate the chemical and mineralogical nature of the environment(s) that they encounter. Historically, mission operations have involved the following sequence of activities: (1) return of scientific data from the vehicle; (2) evaluation of the data by space scientists; (3) recommendations of the scientists regarding future mission activity; (4) transmission of commands to the vehicle to achieve this activity; and (5) new activity by the vehicle in response to those commands. This is repeated for the duration of the mission, with command opportunities once or perhaps twice per day. In a rapidly changing environment, such as might be encountered by a rover traversing hundreds of meters a day or an airplane soaring over several hundred of kilometers, this traditional cycle of data evaluation and commands is not amenable to rapid long range traverses, discovery of novelty, or rapid response to any unanticipated situations. In addition, to issues of response time, the nature of imaging and/or spectroscopic devices are such that tremendous data volumes can be acquired, for example during a traverse. These data volumes can rapidly exceed on-board memory capabilities prior to an opportunity to transmit it to Earth.