This paper considers whether it is possible to devise a nonexperimental procedure for evaluating a prototypical job training programme. Using rich nonexperimental data, we examine the performance of a two-stage evaluation methodology that (a) estimates the probability that a person participates in a programme and (b) uses the estimated probability in extensions of the classical method of matching. We decompose the conventional measure of programme evaluation bias into several components and find that bias due to selection on unobservables, commonly called selection bias in econometrics, is empirically less important than other components, although it is still a sizeable fraction of the estimated programme impact. Matching methods applied to comparison groups located in the same labour markets as participants and administered the same questionnaire eliminate much of the bias as conventionally measured, but the remaining bias is a considerable fraction of experimentally-determined programme impact estimates. We test and reject the identifying assumptions that justify the classical method of matching. We present a nonparametric conditional difference-in-differences extension of the method of matching that is consistent with the classical index-sufficient sample selection model and is not rejected by our tests of identifying assumptions. This estimator is effective in eliminating bias, especially when it is due to temporally-invariant omitted variables.

Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme

Ten per cent of the world’s school-aged children are estimated to be carrying excess body fat (Fig. 1), with an increased risk for developing chronic disease. Of these overweight children, a quarter are obese, with a significant likelihood of some having multiple risk factors for type 2 diabetes, heart disease and a variety of other co-morbidities before or during early adulthood. The prevalence of overweight is dramatically higher in economically developed regions, but is rising significantly in most parts of the world. In many countries the problem of childhood obesity is worsening at a dramatic rate. Surveys during the 1990s show that in Brazil and the USA, an additional 0.5% of the entire child population became overweight each year. In Canada, Australia and parts of Europe the rates were higher, with an additional 1% of all children becoming overweight each year. The burden upon the health services cannot yet be estimated. Although childhood obesity brings a number of additional problems in its train – hyperinsulinaemia, poor glucose tolerance and a raised risk of type 2 diabetes, hypertension, sleep apnoea, social exclusion and depression – the greatest health problems will be seen in the next generation of adults as the present childhood obesity epidemic passes through to adulthood. Greatly increased rates of heart disease, diabetes, certain cancers, gall bladder disease, osteoarthritis, endocrine disorders and other obesityrelated conditions will be found in young adult populations, and their need for medical treatment may last for their remaining life-times. The costs to the health services, the losses to society and the burdens carried by the individuals involved will be great. The present report has been written to focus attention on the issue and to urge policy-makers to consider taking action before it is too late. Specifically, the report:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-789X.2004.00133.x

Obesity in children and young people: a crisis in public health.

The detection of psychiatric illness by questionnaire

Part 1 Unemployment in the model of balanced growth: the labour market long-run equilibrium and balanced growth adjustment dynamics. Part 2 further ananlysis of the labour market: search intensity and job advertising.

Equilibrium Unemployment Theory

Ethnic diversity is increasing in most advanced countries, driven mostly by sharp increases in immigration. In the long run immigration and diversity are likely to have important cultural, economic, fiscal, and developmental benefits. In the short run, however, immigration and ethnic diversity tend to reduce social solidarity and social capital. New evidence from the US suggests that in ethnically diverse neighbourhoods residents of all races tend to ‘hunker down’. Trust (even of one's own race) is lower, altruism and community cooperation rarer, friends fewer. In the long run, however, successful immigrant societies have overcome such fragmentation by creating new, cross-cutting forms of social solidarity and more encompassing identities. Illustrations of becoming comfortable with diversity are drawn from the US military, religious institutions, and earlier waves of American immigration.

/pdf/e-pluribus-unum-diversity-and-community-in-the-twenty-first-232si1r0e9.pdf

E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty‐first Century The 2006 Johan Skytte Prize Lecture

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7487/w7487.pdf

Well-Being Over Time in Britain and the USA

This article uses various micro data sets to study entrepreneurship. Consistent with the existence of capital constraints on potential entrepreneurs, the estimates imply that the probability of self‐employment depends positively upon whether the individual ever received an inheritance or gift. When directly questioned in interview surveys, potential entrepreneurs say that raising capital is their principal problem. Consistent with our theoretical model's predictions, the self‐employed report higher levels of job and life satisfaction than employees. Childhood psychological test scores, however, are not strongly correlated with later self‐employment.

/pdf/what-makes-an-entrepreneur-55xfa4ufr7.pdf

What Makes an Entrepreneur

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12935/w12935.pdf

Is Well-being U-Shaped over the Life Cycle?

The Wage Curve.

Previous research on wages and unemployment across space theoretical issues the US wage curve I - basics the US wage curve II - further tests Britain's wage curve wage curves in other European countries Canada, South Korea, Australia and other nations summary and conclusions. Appendices: US data files British data files European data files Canadian, Australian and South Korean data files.

David G. Blanchflower

Papers

Well-Being Over Time in Britain and the USA

What Makes an Entrepreneur

Is Well-being U-Shaped over the Life Cycle?

The Wage Curve.

The wage curve